Download Asia-Pacific Dialogue on the Climate Regime Beyond 2012

Regional and Global
Preparedness for Global
Warming Consequences
Kentaro Tamura, Ph.D.
United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
ASEAN Day for Disaster Management (ADDM)
Seminar: Challenges Ahead and the Way Forward
24-25 September 2007
Bangkok, Thailand
Outline

Problem Statement
• Mitigation and Adaptation
• Asia’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

Global Preparedness
• International Climate Regime
• Adaptation Work in UNFCCC/Kyoto
Protocol

Regional Preparedness
• Issues and Status of Mainstreaming in
Asia

Way Forward
Part 1: Problem
Statement
Mitigation and Adaptation

Prompt and serious efforts to reduce
GHG emissions can mitigate the
magnitude of negative impacts of climate
change.
However,
 Even the most stringent mitigation efforts
cannot avoid severe impacts of climate
changes in next few decades.
Thus,
 We urgently need to:
• avoid the unmanageable (through mitigation),
and
• manage the unavoidable (through adaptation).
Goal of Adaptation

To improve capacity to cope with
• Current climate hazards (e.g., floods,
droughts, cyclones)
• Established changes in climate (e.g.,
increasing temperature, decreasing
precipitation)
• Specific anticipated changes in climate
(e.g., 30 cm sea-level rise by 2025)
• Unspecified anticipated changes (e.g.,
decreased revenues from tourism at the
coastal zone or mountainous area)
Asia’s vulnerability to climate
change (1) (SPM WG II, IPCCC, 2007)



Climate change is projected to impinge on
sustainable development of most
developing countries of Asia.
Freshwater availability particularly in
large river basins is projected to
decrease. It could adversely affect more
than a billion people in the 2050s.
Increase in agricultural water
demand by 6-10% or more for every 1
centigrade rise in temperature
Asia’s vulnerability to climate
change (2)



The risk of hunger is projected to remain
very high in several countries. Crop yields
could decrease up to 30% in Central and
South Asia.
Coastal areas will be at greatest risk
due to increased flooding from the sea
and in some mega-deltas flooding from the
rivers.
Loss of 2500 km2 mangroves in Asia
with 1m sea level rise
Percentage of Estimates
Asia’s Vulnerability to Climate
Change (3)
Biodiversity Infections,
Coastal
&
communities
Disease &
Ecosystems Heat related
mortality
Based on 186 studies
Water
Resources
Agriculture
&
Forestry
Regional
Economies
Source: CSIRO, 2006
Asia’s vulnerability to climate
change (4)


The design and implementation of
adaptation measures to address the
needs of vulnerable countries has
become more and more pressing.
⇒ A key challenge
How and to what extent have
international community and
Asian countries been preparing
for addressing climate change
consequences?
Part 2: Global
Preparedness
International Climate Regime (1)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
• Review scientific research and offer assessments of
climate change and its impacts
• 4 Assessment Reports

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
• Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle
the challenge posed by climate change
• Near universal membership of 191 countries having
ratified
• Ultimate goal is to prevent “dangerous” human
intervention with the climate system

Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC
• Legally-binding emission reduction commitments for
Annex I Parties (developed countries)
• First commitment period (2008-2012)
• Discussions on post-2012 regime
International Climate Regime (2)

Group of Eight (G8) Summit
• Climate change became a prime agenda for the
Gleneagles Summit (2005)
• Gleneagles Dialogue

Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate (APP)
• Launched in 2005
• US-led initiative, consisting of 6 countries
(Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea,
and U.S.) producing half of the world’s GDP
• technology-oriented public-private partnership

Various multilateral, regional and bilateral
initiatives
Climate Regime at a Glance
1988
IPCC
1990
1992
FAR
1994
1995
1997
SAR
UNFCCC
COP1
2001
2004
TAR
COP3
COP7
Kyoto Marrakech
Protocol
Accords
US
withdrawal
US-led Initiatives
Climate Regime at a Glance
2005
2006
2007
IPCC
2008
2009
2010
2011
AR4
UNFCCC Kyoto
Protocol
COP11
COP12
COP13
Convention Dialogue Follow-up?
First Commitment Period
COP/MOP1 COP/MOP2 COP/MOP3
AWG on Annex I commitments
Article 9 (Review of Kyoto Protocol)
G-8: UK
Russia
Germany
Japan
Italy
Other forums
Gleneagles Dialogue on Climate Change
EU-ETS (Phase I)
EU-ETS (Phase II)
Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP)
Other multilateral / bilateral / local initiatives
2012
Adaptation-related Articles in
UNFCCC (1)

Article 4.1 (b), (e), and (f)
• Commitments for all Parties consider the
impacts of climate change in social, economic
and environmental policies and actions.

Article 4.1 (g), (h), and (j)
• Requests for all Parties to cooperate, exchange
and communicate information related to
implementation

Articles 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.8, and 4.9
• Funding to assist developing countries in
meeting various commitments of Article 4.1
• Funding “incremental costs” of developing
countries’ implementation of adaptation
measures
Adaptation-related Articles in
UNFCCC (2)

Articles 4.8 and 4.9
• Support for small island developing countries,
countries with low-lying coastal areas, countries
prone to natural disasters, drought and
desertification etc. and LDCs

Article 12.3
• Request for developed countries to incorporate
details of measures taken under Article 4.3, 4.4,
and 4.5 in their National Communications.

Article 21
• Global Environment Facility (GEF) serves as the
financial mechanism of the UNFCCC for both
mitigation and adaptation.
Evolving Focus on Adaptation (1)

Compared with mitigation,
adaptation is much less developed
as an int’l policy response in
various ways.
• Definition
• Policy objectives
• Standard measures
• Base year/baseline
• Legal, institutional structures
Evolving Focus on Adaptation (2)
However,
 Emergence of adaptation as a policy
priority at the int’l level
• 2001: Third Assessment Report of IPCC

Climate change impacts are already becoming evident.
• 2001 (COP7): Creation of funds



Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF): to finance
both adaptation and mitigation activities
Least Development Countries Fund (LDCF): to
finance the preparation and implementation of national
adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)
Adaptation Fund: to finance adaptation project and
programmes in developing countries ratifying the Kyoto
Protocol
Evolving Focus on Adaptation (3)
• 2002 (COP8): Delhi Declaration on
Climate Change and Sustainable
Development

Adaptation…is of high priority for all
countries.
• 2004 (COP10): Buenos Aires
programme of work on adaptation and
response measures
• 2006 (COP12): Nairobi work program
on impacts, vulnerability, and
adaptation to climate change
Evolving Focus on Adaptation (4)


A series of modest steps in terms of
efforts to improve understanding of
vulnerability, impacts and adaptation
A question of how to implement and
finance adaptation projects remains as a
challenge.
• Investments needed for adaptation are likely
to be tens of billions of dollars per year
several decades from now.
• Less likely to raise sufficient amounts,
especially if contributions are voluntary.
Adaptation Costs: Some Estimates


Costs of climate-proofing investments in
developing countries: USD 9-41 bn/yr
(World Bank)
Minimum costs of adaptation: USD 50
bn/yr (Oxfam)
• Additional costs:




Scaling up NGO community-based initiatives: $7.5
bn/yr
Scaling up urgent adaptation needs: $8-33 bn (total)
Other hidden costs
USD 28-67 bn in 2030 (Smith, UNFCCC
Dialogue on Long-term Cooperative
Action)
Financial Availability in the Current Regime
Status as of
April 2007
Type of
commit’t
Total funds Unpaid
mobilized
contributions and
pledges
Cumulative funds
collected
1. Special Climate
Change Fund
(SCCF)
voluntary
US$62.1m
US$9.1m
US$53.0m
2. Least Developed voluntary
Countries Fund
(LDC Fund)
US$115.8m
US$53.6m
US$62.2m
3. Strategic
Priority on
Adaptation (SPA;
funded by GEF
Trust Fund)
US$50m
voluntary
4. Adaptation Fund A share of
Best estimate of
proceeds from US$450m by
CDM projects 2012
US$50m
Part 3: Regional
Preparedness
How to prepare?: Mainstreaming

What is mainstreaming?
• Integration of concerns on adaptation to
current and future impacts of climate change
in on-going sectoral and development
planning and decision-making

Why is mainstreaming necessary?
• To ensure that current projects are no longer
at risk from climate change
• To ensure that future projects are consciously
aimed at reducing vulnerability
• To use resources effectively and efficiently
• To ensure consistency between national/local
priorities and adaptation needs
Approaches for Mainstreaming

Entry points
• National Communications, NAPAs
• Incorporating adaptation concerns in national
Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP),
National Environmental Action Plans (NEAP),
and Millennium Development Goal (MDG) plans


Integrating in national economic planning
and budgetary processes
Strengthening coordination on adaptation
issues among sectors
• Linking adaptation strategies with disaster risk
management
Progress on Mainstreaming

Most National Communications are
strongly skewed towards GHG
inventories/mitigation.



NAPA process in some LDCs (e.g.,
Bangladesh) seems to have served as
catalyst in mainstreaming adaptation
concerns at least in planning stages
Development agencies have just begun to
support mainstreaming efforts (WB, GTZ,
OECD, JBIC etc)
Coverage on adaptation policies and measures as
reflected by number of pages in National
Communications of selected Asian countries
Source: Ancha Srinivasan 2006
Mainstreaming: Gaps and
Concerns (1)


Lack of awareness among policy makers
about climate change impacts and their
economic and social implications in each
sector.
Mismatch between the temporal and
spatial scales of climate change
projections and information needs of
sector planners
• Very few climate models can predict rainfall
patterns in Asian countries with certainty or on
timescales relevant to policy makers
Mainstreaming: Gaps and
Concerns (2)

Institutional fragmentation and
resulting communication barriers among
ministries
• Different ministries are involved in:






vulnerability and adaptation assessment,
disaster risk management,
rural development,
poverty alleviation, and
land-use regulation
Lack of “ownership” of an adaptive
approach to future risks due to donordriven projects
So, what is the statue of
preparedness?


Increasing attention has begun to
be paid to adaptation, while the
current international climate regime
is largely geared toward mitigation
so far.
To move forward, several
challenges remain.
• Negotiation challenges
• Financing challenges
• Mainstreaming challenges
Way Forward (1)

Climate regime should enhance the focus on
adaptation to a similar level, if not more, as that
of mitigation.
• Mobilising additional resources for adaptation
• Building human and institutional capacity
• Strengthening support for more detailed vulnerability
assessment


Practical, on-the-ground demonstrations on
promising mainstreaming options, rather than
theoretical approaches
Supporting efforts to document such
demonstrations as a way to promote capacity
building
• Database on Local Coping strategy at UNFCCC site
http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/
Way Forward (2)


UNFCCC and other organisations to play
catalytic role in exchange of experiences,
and in facilitating the development of
region-wide and sector-wide approaches
Promoting synergies among climate,
development and disaster risk
management mechanisms to develop
seamless, efficient efforts to deal with
climate hazards
• International level
• Domestic level
Projected Emissions from Annex I and NonAnnex I Parties and Stabilization Paths
Note: Calculated by AIM
Large reduction in global GHG emissions are
necessary.
All Sectors and regions have the
potential to contribute