Download The AIACC Project (Opening) - global change SysTem for Analysis

yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia, lookup

Climate change, industry and society wikipedia, lookup

Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia, lookup

Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia, lookup

Public opinion on global warming wikipedia, lookup

Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia, lookup

Climate change feedback wikipedia, lookup

Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia, lookup

Solar radiation management wikipedia, lookup

Climate change and poverty wikipedia, lookup

Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia, lookup

Climate change in the United States wikipedia, lookup

Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia, lookup

Climate sensitivity wikipedia, lookup

Media coverage of global warming wikipedia, lookup

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia, lookup

Climate change and agriculture wikipedia, lookup

Effects of global warming wikipedia, lookup

Global warming wikipedia, lookup

General circulation model wikipedia, lookup

Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia, lookup

Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia, lookup

Politics of global warming wikipedia, lookup

Climate engineering wikipedia, lookup

Climate governance wikipedia, lookup

Climate change adaptation wikipedia, lookup

Global warming controversy wikipedia, lookup

Economics of global warming wikipedia, lookup

Fred Singer wikipedia, lookup

Climate change denial wikipedia, lookup

Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia, lookup

Michael E. Mann wikipedia, lookup

Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia, lookup

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wikipedia, lookup

Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia, lookup

Climate resilience wikipedia, lookup

Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia, lookup

ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia, lookup

2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia, lookup

Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia, lookup

Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia, lookup

Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia, lookup

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia, lookup

Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia, lookup

Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia, lookup

The AIACC Project
of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate
Change in Multiple Regions & Sectors
AIACC Africa Region Meeting
Hartebeespoortdam, South Africa
10 March 2003
Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature (IPCC, 2001)
Developing countries are
particularly vulnerable
• Significant exposures to potentially adverse
impacts on crop yields, human health, water
• Large share of population earns livelihoods from
climate sensitive activities (agriculture, livestock,
• Large share of population lives in extreme poverty
• Low capacity to adapt due to low levels of human,
financial, natural, physical and technological
resources; limited institutional capabilities
Attention is focusing on adaptation
• Climate is changing and will continue to
• Many are vulnerable
• Adaptation needs to go forward in hand
with mitigation
• CoP decisions in Bonn and Marrkech
– Invitation to submit NAPAs
– Establishment of adaptation fund, other funds
Developing sound adaptation strategies
requires good science
• Scientific investigation needed to answer:
– Who are most vulnerable?
– What are the causes of their vulnerability?
– What are their options for adaptation and what
are the consequences and costs of adaptation?
• Answering these questions can help to
identify effective adaptation strategies
AIACC Partners
• AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START,
TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions
GEF provides the principal funding
UNEP is the implementing agency
START and TWAS are the executing agencies
Participating institutions in developing countries have
provided collateral funding
– Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA
and World Bank
AIACC Objectives
Advance scientific understanding
Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in
developing countries
Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions.
To investigate I, A & V and
To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA)
Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and
adaptation planning
Means to achieving objectives
Fund regional research projects
Provide training and mentoring
Engage stakeholders in the project
Link with National Communications
Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders
to endure beyond the AIACC project
AIACC funds regional research
• 150+ proposals submitted
• Proposals were peer reviewed
• 24 Awards made in 2002 based on
– Scientific merit
– Regional significance
– Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points
• $100k-$250k awarded to regional studies for 2-3
years of research
• Regional studies add to scientific knowledge and
AIACC studies active in
46 developing countries
• Each study involves a team of scientists
from multiple disciplines
– 235+ scientists from developing countries
participating as investigators
– 60+ graduate and undergraduate students
– 40+ scientists from developed countries
AIACC provides training
• Global training workshops
• Regional workshops organized by regional
study teams
• Additional small grants to AIACC
participants (USAID supported)
– Visiting scientist exchanges
– Develop & implement own training activities
AIACC Provides Mentoring
Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout
the project
– Advice on methods, data,
scenarios, models
– Troubleshooting
– Referrals to other sources
of expertise
– Encourage/facilitate peer
review publication
– Encourage/facilitate
contributions to National
Stakeholders, Nat’l
Communications, Networks
• AIACC engages stakeholders
– For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations,
review of outputs
• AIACC links with National Communications
– Each regional study making contact with relevant ministries,
committees, persons
• AIACC builds networks
– Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” listserve, and web-based database and information network
Commonalities among regional studies
• Most are interested in
Near-term consequences of climate change for people
Interactions with other stresses or threats
Human and social aspects of vulnerability
Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks
from climate change AND address other more immediate
• Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd
Generation” approach to assessment
2nd-Generation Assessments
• Emphasize understanding human side of
– Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why?
• Explore multiple, interacting stresses
– Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land
use change, urbanization, land degradation . . .
• Evaluate responses, adaptations
– Focus responses on causes of vulnerability
• Engage stakeholders
– Enhance relevance, utility, credibility
AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa
Egypt, Morocco,
•Historical impacts of variability
•Crop modeling future impacts
•Irrigation water S&D
•Vulnerability to climatic hazards
•Food security
•Environmental mgt adaptations
Nigeria, Niger
•Crop modeling future impacts
•Seasonal forecasts
Nigeria, Mali
•Vuln.of demog. groups to drought
•Impact thresholds, risk analysis
West Africa
•Diag. eval. of GCM projections
•Statistical & dynamical downscaling
for W. Africa
AIACC Regional Studies in Eastern & Southern Africa
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
•Human Health
•Sensitivities of malaria and cholera incidence to
climate; model & project future risks
•Evaluate adaptive responses
South Africa
•Predictive models of plant & animal responses to
•Adaptation to conserve biodiversity
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia,
Zimbabwe, Tanzania
•Integrated assessment (MIMOSA)
•Primary focus on land-use
•Present water, food conditions
•Int. Assess. of future impacts
South Africa, Gambia
•Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations
Sub-Saharan Africa
•Diag. eval. of GCM projections
•Stat. & dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa
AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands
•Human Health
•Investigate/model health responses to climate
•Future health impacts of climate change
Fiji, Cook
•Natural resources
•IAM, extended to include human dimensions
•Natural resources
•Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism
•Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural
Anticipated outcomes
• Advance science
– Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic reports that expand
literature on developing country I, A and V
– Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports
• Build capacity
– Participants continue their research and link to policy
– Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in IPCC,
global change research
• Contribute to National Communications
– AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications
– Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons