Download P. Batima

Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment
for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia
Data, Trends and Scenarios
Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop
Bangkok, 24-27 March 2002
P.Batima, Natsadorj, P. Gomboluudev, Natsagsuren, Erdenetsetseg,
Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
DATA
Climate
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• 1945, 40
Natural resources base
• Water resources (1945, 20)
• Monthly discharge
• Ice event
• Spring and summer flood
• Snow cover (1960, 30)
• Dates
• Soil (1960, 20-30)
• Moisture
• Thawing and freezing
• Permafrost
Pasture
• Productivity (1960)
• Phenology
Animal husbandry
• Animal weight (1980, 3)
• Productivity
• Wool
• Cashmere
• Dates on
Trends
Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
dT 0C
1.0
0.5
0.0
1940
-0.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C
Winter-Summer temperature differences
4.0
y = 0.0002x 2 - 0.8373x + 845.87
R2 = 0.1552
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1940
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Precipitation
1.5
1.0
dR
0.5
0.0
1940
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Precipitation
D a la n za d g a d
2 .5
2
2
Precipitation, mm
Precipitation, mm
S a in s h a n d
2 .5
1 .5
1
1 .5
1
0 .5
0 .5
0
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1955
2005
B a r u u n tu r u u n
S a in s h a n d
2 .5
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
2000
2005
T o s o n ts e n g e l
D a la n za d g a d
2
40
1995
40
1 .8
35
35
1 .6
30
1 .5
Precipiation, mm
Precipitation, mm
Precipitation, mm
Precipitation, mm
2
25
20
1
15
1 .2
25
1
20
0 .8
15
0 .6
10
0 .5 1 0
0 .4
0 .2 5
5
0
0
1955
1955
1 .43 0
1960
1960
1965
1965
1970
1970
1975
1975
1980
1980
1985
1985
1990
1990
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
0 0
1955
1955
B a r u u n tu r u u n
50
45
40
1960
1960
1965
1965
1970
1970
1975
1975
1980
1980
1985
1985
1990
1990
1995
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
T o c o n ts e n g e l
40
35
Soil moisture
A utum n
S p rin g
20
25
20 c m
50 c m
100 c m
20 c m
50 c m
100 c m
20
Soil moisture, mm
Soil moisture, mm
15
10
15
10
5
5
0
1982
0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Snow Cover
S u h b a a ta r
B a r u u n tu r u u n
9-M ay
14-Apr
4-M ay
4-Apr
29-Apr
25-M ar
24-Apr
15-M ar
19-Apr
5-M ar
14-Apr
23-F eb
9-Apr
13-F eb
4-Apr
3-F eb
30-M ar
25-M ar
1965
24-J an
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
K h a lk h g o l
H u jir t
14-Apr
4-M ay
4-Apr
24-Apr
25-M ar
14-Apr
4-Apr
15-M ar
25-M ar
5-M ar
15-M ar
23-F eb
5-M ar
13-F eb
23-F eb
3-F eb
13-F eb
24-J an
3-F eb
14-J an
24-J an
4-J an
14-J an
25-D ec
4-J an
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Spring and Summer flood
Bu lg a n
Tyi
3-Ju n
24-M a y
24-M a y
14-M a y
14-M a y
4-M a y
4-M a y
24-A p r
24-A p r
14-A p r
14-A p r
4-A p r
4-A p r
25-M a r
15-M a r
25-M a r
5-M a r
15-M a r
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Eroo
D e lg e rmu re n
T ui
24-M a y
4-M a y
80
2000
B a ru u n t u ru u n
100
14-M a7 0y
24-A9p0r
60
14-A7p0r
80
Discgarge, ì 3 /ñ
Discgarge, ì 3 /ñ
4-M a y
50
24-A p r
40
50
25-M4a0r
14-A 3p0r
20
30
15-M2a0r
4-A p r
10
10
5-M a r
25-M a r
0
0
1
1997405
60
4-A p r
19
1
97555
1199 8605
119978 55
119989 05
11999955
119975
00
2 2000050
Khanui
120
3-Ju n
14-M a y
800
100
24-M a y
4-M a y
ñ
ñ
700
14-M a y
19801970 1985
1 9 8109 9 0
1 91 99 905
220000
00
K hanui
T uul
900
197
159 6 0
K h a lkh g o l
Scenarios
Institute of Meteorology & Hydrology
GHG SRES scenarios
•High Emissions
GHG SRES scenarios
A1FI
•Medium-High Emissions
A2 (IPCC, DDC)
•Medium-Low Emissions
B2 (IPCC, DDC)
•Low Emissions
B1
540-970 ppm
How accurate is the climate model?
Model
1.HadCM3
2. CGCM3
3. CSIRO
Temperature
Observed
Simulation
BIAS
St. deviation
Variation
Annual mean
0.66
-0.44
1.13
1.32
1.75
Summer
17.02
16.22
0.79
1.46
2.14
Winter
-17.55
-18.42
0.92
3.21
10.03
Annual mean
0.66
-7.06
7.63
4.78
22.88
Summer
17.02
12.16
4.75
3.39
11.55
Winter
-17.55
-27.06
9.44
6.76
45.4
Annual mean
0.66
-0.86
1.54
3.25
10.54
Summer
17.02
19.18
-2.16
3.33
11.06
Winter
-17.55
-18.02
0.53
5.27
27.27
Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990
January
July
Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios
by HadCM3 Climate Model
Time slice
Winter
Summer
Annual
Temperature, Celsius
2020
0.85
1.99
1.37
2050
2.37
3.53
2.81
2080
3.89
6.35
4.88
Precipitation, mm
2020
5.0
-5.2
9.1
2050
8.2
15.1
44.3
2080
14.2
13.6
55.4
Scenarios of Temperature
ª ⺠ë
2010-2039
Çóí
2010-2039
2040-2069
2040-2069
2070-2099
2070-2099
Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2
1961-1990
2050
2020
2080
Scenarios of Precipitation
ª ⺠ë
2010-2039
Çóí
2010-2039
2040-2069
2040-2069
2070-2099
2070-2099
Thank you