Download Korea Meteorological Administration

Global Warming and Climate
Change Signal in East Asia
Chung-Kyu Park
Climate Prediction Division
Korea Meteorological Administration
1. Climate Change in Korea
Freezing of Han-River
1950’s
Recent
Korea Meteorological
Temperature Variation (Korea, 1970-2002)
1.5
Temperature Anomaly (
o
C)
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Y ear
Korea Meteorological
Difference
Pattern : A-B
A : 1971-2000
B : 1961-1990
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
125
126
127
128
129
130
Korea Meteorological
30
Rainfall Change
in Summer
(’41-’70 vs. ’71-’02)
(a) 1941-1970
Changma
20
10
0
30 6/1
6/11
6/21
7/1
7/11
7/21
7/31
8/10
8/20
8/30
6/11
6/21
7/1
7/11
7/21
7/31
8/10
8/20
8/30
(b) 1971-2002
20
10
0
25 6/1
20
(c)
(c) b-a
b-a
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
After Changma
-15
6/1
6/11
6/21
7/1
7/11
7/21
7/31
8/10
8/20
8/30
Korea Meteorological
83
80
14000
0
13
20
4000
1971-1980
1992-2001
150.1이상
140.1~150.0
130.1~140.0
120.1~130.0
110.1~120.0
100.1~110.0
6000
26
8000
107
1971-1980
1992-2001
100
28 25
40
26
10000
37
44
49
57
52
60
12000
(1971-1980 vs.1992-2000)
Rainfall Intensity Change
120
2000
0
150.1이상
140.1~150.0
130.1~140.0
120.1~130.0
110.1~120.0
100.1~110.0
90.1~100.0
80.1~90.0
70.1~80.0
60.1~70.0
50.1~60.0
40.1~50.0
30.1~40.0
20.1~30.0
10.1~20.0
1~10.0
Korea Meteorological
Types of Disaster in Korea (1991-2001)
Typhoon (17.1%)
Heavy Rain (73.7%)
Storm(5.6%)
heavy snow
the others
호 우 태 풍 폭 풍 대설 기 타
Korea Meteorological
Weather-Related Natural Disasters in Korea
4000
Property Damage
3000
(Unit : Million
Dollars)
2000
1000
0
1960's
1970's
1980's
1990's
Korea Meteorological
Wavelet Analysis of Rainfall in Korea
Period
(Year)
Period
(Year)
3~4
5~6
~10
Korea Meteorological
oupled mode of Tibetan Snow Cover (Spring) and T and P (summer) of Korea
Coupled mode of
T & Snow Cover
Tibetan Snow
Cover(spring) and
T & P(summer) of
Korea
COR= - 0.74
20
15
12
8
10
5
4
0
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-4
TM P
S now C over
-8
-12
Tim e coef. of SVD 1/S now
Tim e coef. of SVD 1/TM P
P & Snow Cover
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
5
4
0
0
-5
-4
-10
-15
-20
TM P
S now C over
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
-8
-12
15
8
10
4
5
0
0
-4
-5
-8
-12
-10
PRE
S now C over
-15
Tim e coef. of SVD 1/Snow
8
10
COR=0.70
12
Tim e coef. of SVD 1/PRE
15
12
Tim e coef. of SVD 1/Snow
COR= - 0.74
20
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Korea Meteorological
2. Climate Regime Shift
1000hPa Geopotential Height
(A.1958-1978 B.1979-1999)
Height Difference
B-A
Korea Meteorological
200hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly
Korea Meteorological
El Nino Index
Korea Meteorological
East Asian Monsoon Variation
Internal Dynamics







Intraseasonal Oscillation : Biweekly, 10-20 day, 30-60 day
Eurasian Wavetrain
Indian Monsoon Variation
Biennial Oscillation
ENSO-Monsoon Coupling
Inter-Decadal Variation
Multi-Scale Interaction
External Forcing
 SST (El Nino/La Nina, etc.)
 Eurasian Snow Cover, Soil Moisture
 Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover (Albedo)
Korea Meteorological
Extream Weather Events over East Asia  El nino Impact?
Global Warming
El Nino
Decadal
Variation
Monsoon
Climate
Regime
Shift
Climate Change
Korea Meteorological
3. Global Climate Change
Global Temperature Variation
 Urban Heat Island
 Anthropogenic Effect (Greenhouse Gases)
 Natural Variation
- Land-Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Interaction (Internal)
- Solar Impact (External)
Korea Meteorological
Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature
Korea Meteorological
Effects on
Extreme
Temperature
Korea Meteorological
Global costs of extreme weather events
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4. Anthropogenic Effect
Anthropogenic and Natural forcing of the Climate
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Indicators of the human influence
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Comparison between modeled & observed GMT
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Past and Future atmospheric CO2
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Variations of the Surface Temperature :1000-2100
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Global Temperature & CO2 Change
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GMT vs. CO2 : Who is the leader?
Figure 3.3 from IPCC-2001:
Fossil fuel emissions and the rate of increase of CO2
concentration in the atmosphere. The annual atmospheric
increase is the measured increase during a calendar year.
The monthly atmospheric increases have been filtered to
remove the seasonal cycle. Vertical arrows denote El Niño
events. A horizontal line defines the extended El Niño
of 1991 to 1994. Atmospheric data are from Keeling and
Whorf (2000), fossil fuel emissions data are from Marland
et al. (2000) and British Petroleum (2000).
Correlation coefficients (*100) between the rates of annual change in CO2
concentration and annual change in mean temperature (GMT and OCEAN). 1959/60 – 2002/03
GMT
OCEAN MT
CO2 leads by 1 yr.
Concurrent
Temp. leads by 1
yr.
-0.45
0.35
0.49
-0.45
0.23*
0.65*
*these two coefficients are different at the confidence level above 95%.
Data: CO2 concentrations – Manua Loa annual mean CO2 concentration 1959 – 2003;
Temperature – Hadley Centre/Jone’s
5. Natural Variation
Global Temperature Change
0.6
o
Temperature difference (C)
from normal
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Y ear
Korea Meteorological
Global Temperature Change
(without Trend)
0.5
Temperature Difference
o
( C)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900 1910
1920
1930
Y ear
1940
1950 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Korea Meteorological
Global mean Temperature
0.8
0.6
Original
Fourier Filtering
11-year MA
Low-Frequency
0.08
0.06
~60year
0.4
0.04
0.2
~40year
0.02
0.00
0.0
High-Frequency
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000
~9.2year
~3.5year
-0.8
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Korea Meteorological
Correlation between GMTA & SSTA
Korea Meteorological
Global Warming & SSTA (Indian Ocean)
0.4
GlobalT : Without polynomial curve SSTA(IND) : Over the Indian Ocean without linear trend (50E-100E, 0-20N)
Corr. Coeff. = 0.67
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
1860
GlobalT
1870
1880
SSTA*2(IND)
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Korea Meteorological
6. Solar Impact
The Mounder Minimum
Korea Meteorological
Sunspot
Korea Meteorological
The Butterfly Diagram
Korea Meteorological
Sunspot Number
200
Sunspot Number
11-yr MA
160
120
80
40
0
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Korea Meteorological
Reconstructed Solar Irradiance
1370
Hoyt(1993):1680-1992
Lean(1995):1610-1997
Lean(2000):1610-2000
Solanki_a(1998):1874-1992
Solanki_b(1998):1874-1992
Solanki_a(1999):1700-1992
Solanki_b(1999):1700-1992
1369
1368
1367
1366
1365
1364
1363
1362
1361
Solar Constant = 1360 W/m2
1360
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Korea Meteorological
GMT &
Solar Irradiance
0.8
0.6
0.4
Global Mean Temperature
0.2
0.0
1367.5
-0.2
1367.0
-0.4
1366.5
-0.6
1366.0
1365.5
Irradiance(Lean,2000)
1.5
1.0
GMT - Irradiance
1365.0
0.5
0.0
1364.5
-0.5
-1.0
1364.0
-1.5
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Korea Meteorological
GMT,
Solar Irradiance &
SOI
0.8
0.6
0.4
Global Mean Temperature
0.2
0.0
-0.2
4
-0.4
3
-0.6
2
1
0
1.5
1.0
-1
0.5
Multi-regression (Irradiance & SOI)
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-2
Irradiance
Irradiance&SOI
-1.5
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-3
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Korea Meteorological
Human Effect ? Or Climate Mechanism?
GMT and Regression with Irr. & SOI(red)
Korea Meteorological
Spectral Analysis
Low-Frequency
High-Frequency
0.00
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000
0.30
0.7
0.08
0.06
0.04
~60year
GMT
~40year
0.02
Solar Irradiance
0.25
0.20
~60year
GMT
~3.5year
0.6
~11year
Solar Irradiance
0.5
0.4
0.15
0.3
0.10
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.00
0.0
1.2
3.0
2.5
~9.2year
~60year
Regression
~24year
Regression
1.0
2.0
0.8
1.5
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
~20year
~9.2year
Korea Meteorological
Decadal Variation of EASM
9-year running average of EASM
Index during 1900-2001
From Sun Zhaobo (Nanjing Institute of Meteorology)
Korea Meteorological
Decadal Variation of EASMI & GMT
1.5
EASMI
GMT
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Korea Meteorological
Why 60-year Cycle?
Tidal Theory
Korea Meteorological
7. Mechanisms of Solar Impact
on Global Climate
The Main
Mechanisms of
Solar Impacts
on Climate
Solar Activity
+
Total Irradiance
+
Cloudiness
constant
+
Global Mean Temperature
+
DIRECT
The Main
Mechanisms of
Solar Impacts
on Climate
Solar Activity
+
Total Irradiance
+
UV Irradiance
+
Cloudiness
constant
+
Global Mean Temperature
+
DIRECT
Ozone
Circumpolar Vortex
(Arctic Oscillation)
+
+
via UV - Ozone
Solar Magnetic Field
+
Galactic Cosmic
Rays
The Main
Mechanisms of
Solar Impacts
on Climate
Solar Activity
+
Total Irradiance
+
UV Irradiance
+
Shield
+
Atmospheric
Ionization
-
Cloudiness
-
+ +
Global Mean Temperature
+
via Shield from GCR
DIRECT
Ozone
Circumpolar Vortex
(Arctic Oscillation)
+
+
via UV - Ozone
8. Role of Sea Ice on Global
Climate
Sea Ice Decrease
DECREASE IN SEA ICE EXTENT AND CONCENTRATION
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY
12.5
mln.sq.km
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Annual mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice area (106 km2).
(Chapman and Walsh (1993) updated)
(Violet: the most reliable and homogeneous data since 1979)
Role and Impacts of Sea Ice in the Climate System
SEA ICE
ROLE:
Solar radiation reflection
due to high albedo
Insulation between
sea and atmosphere
Production of bribe
and fresh water
IMPACT:
Radiative Balance
Sea-Atmosphere
Turbulent Heat
and Momentum Fluxes
Ocean Thermohaline
Structure
Mainly depends on:
surface properties,
extent, concentration,
extent, concentration,
thickness,
surface properties
volume
Earth’s Radiative Balance
EARTH’S RADIATIVE BALANCE
_
_
Sea Ice
Open Ocean
+
Surface
Temperature_
+
+
Albedo
Sea ice – albedo positive
feedback mechanism
Evaporation
-
+
+
Low Clouds
Sea ice – clouds negative
feedback mechanism
Long Wave Radiative Balance
LONG WAVE RADIATIVE BALANCE
_
Sea Ice
_
Open Ocean
+
Evaporation
Surface Air
Temperature
+
+
Low Clouds
+
Surface long wave
radiative balance
Sea ice – water vapor – low clouds
positive feedback mechanism
(Long Wave Radiation)
+
+
Warming between the 1960s and 1990s
Changes in decadal mean temperature. T’1990s minus T’1960s (oC)
(Reanalysis I, temperature at 2 m)
Annual Temperature Trends :
1976 to 2000
Korea Meteorological
Summary
o Importance of natural variation on the global climate change
- Solar impact
- Sea ice effect
- Ocean’s role
o Rapid GMT rising in recent years
- Anthropogenic effect (greenhouse gases)
- Urban heat island
- Sea ice