Download Deniliquin council presentation CC impact and adaptation cashen

Climate implications for Agricultural
Production within the Murray Valley
of NSW
Michael Cashen – Climatologist, Agriculture
[email protected]
John Smith – District Agronomist, Barham
[email protected]
So what’s the talk about?
The three P’s
Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB
Relevant research quantifying uncertainty
Impacts on farming systems
Future implications for farm businesses and
Deniliquin
The three P’s of climate change
Policy
Peripheral
Physical
Policy responses- Climate Change
 Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), Carbon Pollution Reduction
Scheme (CPRS) and Carbon Tax.
 Water policy review (MDBA- draft basin plan)
 Exceptional circumstance policy review
Peripheral responses-Climate Change
Niche marketing and preferential buying
 Food miles
 Carbon footprint (life cycle analysis)
 Carbon neutral
Our focus today- Physical
(science and biophysical impacts on Ag)
So what’s the talk about?
The three P’s
Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB
Relevant research quantifying uncertainty
Impacts on farming systems
Future implications for farm businesses and
Deniliquin
Rainfall in Deniliquin (1889-2009)
Deniliquin yearly rainfall 1889-2009
900
800
700
mm/year
600
500
Total yearly rainfall
400
11 per. Mov. Avg. (Total yearly rainfall )
300
200
100
08
01
20
94
20
87
19
80
19
73
19
66
19
59
19
52
19
45
19
38
19
31
19
19
24
17
19
10
19
03
19
96
19
18
18
89
0
Year
Iconic droughts 1900-1909, 1936-45 and 1997-2009
Data source: SILO Data Drill
Seasonal analysis rainfall (1889-2009)
Deniliquin seasonal rainfall trends (1889-2009) 11 yr moving average
160
140
mm/season
120
Autumn MAM (11yr moving average)
100
Spring SON (11 year moving average)
80
Summer DJF (11 year moving average)
60
Winter JJA (11 year moving average)
40
20
Year
Data source: SILO Data Drill
2009
2003
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1967
1961
1955
1949
1943
1937
1931
1925
1919
1913
1907
1901
1895
1889
0
Autumn rainfall-Deniliquin
Deniliquin seasonal rainfall trends (1889-2009) 11 yr moving average
140
120
mm/season
100
80
Autumn MAM (11yr moving average)
60
40
20
Year
Data source: SILO Data Drill
2009
2003
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1967
1961
1955
1949
1943
1937
1931
1925
1919
1913
1907
1901
1895
1889
0
Murray Darling Basin- temperatures
Murray Darling Basin- annual rainfall
Iconic droughts 1900-1909, 1936-45 and 1997-2009
MDB- Winter and Spring rainfall
Murray Darling Basin -Cool Season Rainfall JJASON (1900-2009)
450
400
mm/JJASON period
350
300
250
JJASON
200
5 per. Mov. Avg. (JJASON)
150
100
50
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
0
Year
Data source: BoM
Drivers of winter/spring variability ENSO/IOD Ummenhofer et al 2010
Moree seasonal rainfall trend 1889-2009 (11yr moving average)- data drill
300
mm/season
250
4 Sites
Seasonal
rainfall trends
200
Autumn MAM
Spring SON
150
Summer DJF
Winter JJA
100
50
09
04
20
99
20
94
19
89
19
84
19
79
19
74
19
64
69
19
19
59
19
54
19
49
19
44
19
39
19
34
19
29
19
19
24
19
19
14
19
09
19
04
19
99
19
94
18
18
18
89
0
Year
Horsham seasonal rainfall trend (1889-2009)-data drill
200
180
160
200
Autumn MAM
120
Spring SON
100
Summer DJF
80
Winter JJA
60
180
40
160
20
Summer 11 year moving average
60
40
20
Year
2008
2002
1996
1990
1984
1978
1972
1966
1960
1954
1948
1942
1936
1930
1924
1918
1912
1906
1900
0
Year
2009
2004
1999
1994
1989
1984
1979
1974
1969
1964
1959
1954
1949
1944
1939
1934
1929
1924
1919
1914
1909
1904
Spring 11 yr moving average
80
0
1899
Winter 11 yr moving average
100
1894
Autumn 11 yr moving average
120
1889
140
mm
mm/season
140
MDB seasonal rainfall (1900-2009) 11 yr moving average
Autumn rainfall-Deniliquin
Deniliquin seasonal rainfall trends (1889-2009) 11 yr moving average
140
120
mm/season
100
80
Autumn MAM (11yr moving average)
60
40
20
Year
Data source: SILO Data Drill
2009
2003
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1967
1961
1955
1949
1943
1937
1931
1925
1919
1913
1907
1901
1895
1889
0
Impact on Deniliquin
83%
Source: S Gannon Westpac 2010
So what’s the talk about?
The three P’s
Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB
Relevant research quantifying uncertainty
Impacts on farming systems
Future implications for farm businesses and
Deniliquin
The Subtropical Ridge
STR Changes and temperature
STR Impacts
Quantifying uncertainty
So what’s the talk about?
The three P’s
Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB
Relevant research quantifying uncertainty
Impacts on farming systems
Future implications for farm businesses and
Deniliquin
Reduced PAW in winter crop growing season
Stored soil moisture 61-90 = 69.2mm
Stored soil moisture 91-08 = 40.7mm (-28.5mm)
Rainfall and Plant water use-Deniliquin
90.0
80.0
mm/mth
70.0
Reduced PAW
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug
Sep
month
Mean 61-90
Mean 91-08
Etc estimate - Wheat
Oct
Nov
Dec
Reduced PAW in winter crop growing season
GCM predictions
Rainfall and Plant water use-Deniliquin
90.0
80.0
mm/mth
70.0
Reduced PAW
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
month
Mean 61-90
Mean 91-08
CC 2030 50p A1B scenario
CC 2070 50p A1F1 scenario
Etc estimate
Implications for reduced water
1976/77 - 1998/99
1999/00 - 2010/11
Rice
Winter Cropping
0
0
0
0
83%
5%
94%
14%
101%
26%
110%
31%
113%
31%
114%
35%
117%
36%
119%
37%
122%
38%
123%
38%
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Sowing
Spring Irrigation
PI - Microspore
Harvest
Pre season Irrigation
 Changes in water priorities
– Less water available when decisions need to be
made
• Winter crops for yield potential
• Calculated risk on water availability for rice
Implications for industry – rice
(Gaydon et al., 2010)
 Declines in irrigation water supply -ve impact
 Potential increases in water demand (?) increased ET but quicker growth
 Low-temperature damage may be reduced (?)
 Significant improvements in water productivity
difficult under existing systems –
less water = less rice
Rice farming system changes
 Adaptation
– Drill sowing
– Aerobic rice
– AWD
- Farm layouts
- New Varieties
- Irrigation methods
Implications for industry – grains (Howden et al., 2010)
 Enhanced growth with elevated CO2
– Increased photosynthetic rates and WUE
 Reduced frost risk
 Accelerated plant development with increased
temp.
– Reduced yield without variety adaptation
– More rapid depletion of soil moisture
 Rainfall is a key determinant of yield –
considerable risk of lower rainfall = lower yield
Implications for industry – grains (Howden et al., 2010)
 Pests and disease - variable but for us
– Stripe rust
• increase with milder winter temps, quicker life
cycle
– Viral Diseases (Barley Yellow Dwarf)
• increase with warmer winter temps, more
aphid activity
– Take all
• decrease, favoured by wet soil conditions
Take home message
-
Temps are up
Autumn rainfall down
STR intensification driving autumn decline (temp)
GCM uncertainty around autumn (under estimate?)
Impacting on water availability
- Less water less production
So what’s the talk about?
The three P’s
Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB
Relevant research quantifying uncertainty
Impacts on farming systems
Future implications for farm businesses and
Deniliquin
Future implications for farms
 Scale (Diversification)
 Return on water and land asset base (Review)
 Equity level (Key to survival)
 Flexible systems (annual –turn on or off)
References
Gaydon DS, Beecher HG, Reinke R, Crimp S and Howden SM (2010)
‘Rice’. In Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing
Howden SM, Gifford RG and Meinke H (2010) ‘Grains’. In Adapting
Agriculture to Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing
Timbal B (2010) ‘Understanding the anthropogenic nature of observed
rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia. Centre for Australian
Weather and Climate Research, Technical Report No. 026
Ummenhofer CC, Alexander SG, Briggs PR, England MH, McIntosh
PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Raupach MR, Risbey JS (2010). Indian and
Pacific Ocean Influences on Southeast Australian Drought and Soil
Moisture. Journal of Climate. Published on line in
(http://journals.ametsoc.org) DOI 10.1175/2010JCLI3475.1
Additional slides
El Nino Southern Oscillation
Image source: Bureau of Meteorology
Indian Ocean Dipole
Image source: www.oceansatlas.org
The years of ENSO/IOD
(Ummenhofer et al 2010)
Neutral ENSO and
neutral dipole (41)
Neutral ENSO and
negative dipole (8)
El Nino and positive
dipole (6)
El Nino and neutral
dipole (11)
El Nino and negative
dipole (1)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
La Nina and positive
dipole (1)
La Nina and neutral
dipole (21)
La Nina and negative
dipole (7)
Neutral ENSO and
positive dipole (11)
mm winter/spring
Impact of ENSO/IOD events MDB
Statistical impact of ENSO/IOD events on JJASON rainfall
MDB 1900-2006
q1
min
median
max
q3
phenomina
Figures inside brackets indicated number of events (1900-2006)
Note: variation in impact between case study sites
http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/technical_report.php