Download Why are we going to Zero Carbon

• Climate Change
• Energy Security
• Global Equity
Happy Planet Index 2.0 – NEF (2009)
Climate Change
• In 1996
EU agrees on < 2c
• In 2007
IPCC state BAU is 6.4
• In 2008 stern predicts cost
could be 2% GDP
Emissions
Andersen - Decarbonisation
Time
“
This is not some slow, uncontrolled change we’re
talking about. It’s fast, it’s unpredictable and it’s
unprecedented during human civilization. ”
WWF
Climate Change
Meinshausen (2009):
Global emissions must cut by 72% from 1990
levels by 2050 for an 84% chance of avoiding
two degrees warming … and emissions must
then near zero by 2100 globally.
Climate Change, 2 degrees?
• Hansen (2008) need < 1.7 degrees warming
• Small island states and Least Developed
Countries call for 1.5 degrees..
• Temperature lags emissions, already on
course for 1.4 degrees?
Accounting
• Emissions have been outsourced
• Regaining manufacture (e.g. renewables) for
job creation. So these emissions may start
coming back.
Equity
• Impacts are not equally dispersed.
• Historic emissions are not equal
• Resources to adapt are not equal
The average British citizen emits over 1000 times
more C02 than the average Afghani.
Climate Change
Gapminder
The Age of Oil
we are about here
“ One thing is clear; the age of easy oil is over. ”
CEO, Chevron
What now?
• Six published papers – topic specific
• One final report
• Dynamic Energy Models
Latter Seminars
• Sustainable land Use: 9th Sept
• Policy and Economics: 30th Sept
www.zerocarbonbritain.com
Milestones
• Smithsonian festival in Washington - June
• UN Climate Change Conference – December
• Publication – Q1 2010.
Working with …
Dr Caroline Lucas MEP
Dr Jeremy Leggett
Colin Challen MP
Universities
Industry
Research centres
Funding from
Individuals
• And equivalents
Context outcomes
• Diverse groups meeting
• Current Targets
• Climate Science
Emissions
Andersen - Decarbonisation
Time
Buildings
• New build “Zero Carbon” (in use)
• Large-scale retrofit (VAT free)
• Selective demolition / “reconstruction”
• Occupant education and industry skills
• Building management systems
Moving beyond “energy in use”
• Embodied energy of materials and processes
• Focus on fabric and EROEI of building
• Using our Carbon budget.
• Now: Industrial ecology
Emissions
Alternative Decarbonisation
Andersen (ish)
Basic
Aim
Time
Power Up Seminar:
• Germany proves 100% renewably powered
grid can meet variable demand.
• Backup generation cheaper than storage
• Huge potential of “Desert Tech”
• High performance not high efficiency.