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Multimodel Mean Forcing for Regional Climate Projections
A. Lauer, C. Zhang, O. Elison-Timm, Y. Wang & K. Hamilton
J. Climate, 26, 10,006-10,030 (2013)
Since dynamical projections of climate change
for Hawaii require much finer horizontal
resolution than that of current global models,
IPRC scientists are making projections for
Hawaii using a regional climate model forced
by boundary conditions taken from global
model runs.
40
Eastern boundary
N
80
100
(a)
20
40
60
80
100
S
E
W
Western boundary
S
N
Northern boundary
W
E
0
Pressure (kPa)
60
Southern boundary
3
20
1 2
g/kg
Top left: blue shading shows the regional model domain.
Top right: close-up of the inner Hawaii Region.
Bottom: the model-projected change in absolute humidity over the 21st
century plotted clockwise along the boundary of the inner Hawaii Region.
(a) Average from 10 regional model runs each forced with the climate change
signal from a different global model. (b) A single regional model run forced
with the mean boundary forcing of the 10 global model runs.
Lauer et al. tested the validity of a useful
simplification in which a single regional model
run is forced on the boundaries with a climate
change signal based on a multimodel mean.
Results from this approach were compared
with the mean of results from 10 runs made
with the regional model, each forced by a
different global model. The results strongly
support the validity of the simplified approach.
(b)
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