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Transcript
Climate Change: The Great Debate
ENVH 111
October 6, 2010
http://courses.washington.edu/envh111/
Overview
•
The never-ending debate
•
•
•
Trends in climate change
•
•
•
Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)
Senator James Inhofe
Global
Pacific Northwest
The role of public health
•
•
Assess health impacts of climate change
Develop mitigation and adaptation strategies
NRDC climate change
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG41xDxrzI8
Inhofe video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Skf8bpl8WSg
Global Trends in Climate Change
Climate Change Projections
Svante Arrhenius, 1906
“Any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide
in the air would raise the temperature of the
Earth’s surface by 4 °C.”
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide -- President’s Science Advisory
Committee, 1965
“Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly
conducting a vast geophysical experiment.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
… the best estimate of climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is
a warming of 3°C, with a likely range of 2 to 4.5°C.
Long term Trend in CO2
Global average temperature
Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute │ http://provost.umich.edu/gesi
Muir Glacier, Alaska
Aug 1941 & 2004
Boulder Glacier on Mount Baker
the North Cascades
Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level
Average rate of sea level rise:
1961 – 2003: 1.8 mm /yr
1993 – 2003: 3.1 mm /yr
Source: Martin Manning, Director, IPCC Working Group
Human Health Consequences of Climate Change
NIH Report, April 2010
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Asthma, respiratory allergies, and airway diseases
Cancer
Cardiovascular disease and stroke
Foodborne diseases and nutrition
Heat-related morbidity and mortality
Human developmental effects
Mental health and stress-related disorders
Neurological diseases and disorders
Vectorborne and zoonotic diseases
Waterborne diseases
Weather-related morbidity and mortality
Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Emissions by
Country
(Density-Equalizing Cartogram)
Mark Newman, University of Michigan (www.worldmapper.org)
Climate-Related Mortality
Jonathan Patz, University of Wisconsin
Climate Change and Human Health
NIH Report, April 2010
 Mitigation of climate change
Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Enhancement of sinks that trap or remove carbon from the
atmosphere
 Adaptation to climate change
Actions taken to lessen the impact on health and the
environment
Some adaptation strategies will directly improve public
health through changes in infrastructure
Regional Trends in Climate Change
University of
Washington
Changes Relative to the 20 th Century
2080s
Projected Changes in Extreme Temp
Figure 2. Change in
numbe r of days in
2055-2075 w ith daily
m axim um
te mpe r ature (TM AX)
e xce e ding the 90th
pe rce ntile TM AX of
the pre s ent.The
number of extreme hot
days in Washington
State is expected to
increase by mid-century
relevant to current
climate. The increase is
likely to be most
signif icant in eastern
Washington.
Figure Source: Leung
and Qian (2005)
WA State Study: Methods
 Establish historical relationship between heat events
and mortality
 25 year database: 1980-2005; May-September
 Humidex: combined effects of temperature and
humidity
 Heat events: event threshold definition
 Hottest 1% of all days (99th percentile humidex)
 Number of heat events and duration of each event
 Excess deaths in 2025, 2045, 2085
 Customize estimates for key study areas
 King County, Spokane County, Clark County
 Also estimate future mortality due to heat
Historical Analysis
 Relative risk of death during heat event
 Mean Daily Mortality Rate(heat event)
 Mean Daily Mortality Rate(non-event)
King County Relative Risk of Death,
Heat Day vs Day < 36°C Humidex,
Age Group
Cause of
Death
All nontraumatic
0-4
5-14
15-44
45-64
65-84
0.92
(0.65, 1.31)
1.61
(0.71, 3.67)
1.01
(0.83, 1.23)
1.08
(0.97, 1.2)
1.07
(1.01, 1.13)*
Respiratory
0
(0, Inf) †
0
(0, Inf) †
0.73
(0.23, 2.32)
1.18
(0.8, 1.75)
1.15
(0.97, 1.36)
1.14
(0.91, 1.42)
Circulatory
1.97
(0.49, 7.96)
0
(0, Inf) †
1.3
(0.89, 1.9)
0.94
(0.76, 1.15)
1.08
(0.99, 1.19)
1.26
(1.14, 1.4)*
Cardiovascular
1.16
(0.16, 8.2)
0
(0, Inf) †
1.3
(0.84, 1.99)
0.95
(0.76, 1.19)
1.03
(0.92, 1.15)
1.24
(1.1, 1.4)*
Ischemic
0
(0, Inf) †
1.01
(0.83, 1.23)
1.38
(0.67, 2.81)
0.91
(0.69, 1.2)
1.03
(0.9, 1.17)
1.08
(0.91, 1.27)
† Unstable estimate due to small mortality rate in this category
* statistically significant results at p<0.05
85+
1.24
(1.15, 1.33)*
Time Series Analysis
All non-traumatic deaths
~1.8%per ºC
Spatial Distribution of Risk
Relative risk of all non-traumatic deaths associated with heat days from 1980-2006 in King County
°
F
ºC
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by IPCC, 2001
Future projections
Projected Excess Deaths Per Year Due to Climate Change in King County
180
160
140
120
over 85
65-84
below 65
100
80
60
40
20
0
2025 Low
2045 Low
2025
Moderate
2045
Moderate
2025 High
2045 High
So What are our Choices?
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ&feature=r
elated