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Climate change and rising seas
Environmental Science
21 October 2009
Donald Winslow
Readings:
Withgott & Brennan 2009 Essential Environment,
3rd ed., Ch 14 pp 303-325
Lester Brown, Plan B 3.0, www.earth-policy.org
Chapter 3
Climate change
Milankovitch cycles
CO2 and temperature
Anthropogenic climate change
CO2 emissions
CH4 emissions
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Remedies
Milankovitch cycles
Shape of Earth's orbit
Tilt of axis
Wobble
CO2 and temperature
http://www.ipcc.ch
Anthropogenic climate change
Evidence & effects
Temperature, CO2, melting ice, rising seas
Hurricanes
Species distributions
Pronounced warming at higher latititudes
Increases in photosynthesis from increased CO2
Decreases in photosynthesis from increased T
Civilization & the New World
Readings from Lester Brown 2008. Plan B 3.0;
Chapter 3
http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/index.htm
Features of Plan B
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Electronic version available as pdf files
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References
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Data sets as xls files
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“Cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2020”
Rising temperatures & rising seas
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Effects of rising temperature
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Crop yield
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Reservoirs in the sky
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Melting ice & rising seas
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Destructive storms
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Cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2020
Sea level rise
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IPCC estimate 18-59 cm by 2100
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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www.ipcc.ch
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Estimate based on data thru 2006
Considering 2007 melting, maybe 200 cm
After Greenland & West Antarctic Ice Sheet
melt: 700-1200 cm
Arctic ice on 16 September 2008
Photo by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, via Reuters
EPA study of sea level rise
http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/slrmaps.html
Gulf of Mexico after
12 m rise in sea level
http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=23.3624,-85.4297&z=12&m=12
Alex@firetree in the UK
Montane glacial melt
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Implications for agriculture
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Himalayas & Tibetan Plateau
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Feed all major rivers of China & India
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Necessary for rice production
Remedies
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Emission reduction
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Carbon sequestration
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Increasing albedo
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Adapting to change