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Climate Change Copenhagen Discord Walter Mendoza February Dialogues Fireflies Ashram February 17, 2010 The basis in Science The latest is the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, "Climate Change 2007". AR4 The basis in Science Nobel Peace Prize 2007 Al Gore and IPCC • • • Net CO2 emissions = 7.9 GtC/yr Net CO2 intake capacity = 3.1 GtC/yr Excess CO2 emissions = 4.8 GtC/yr, 55% more than intake capacity Total and per capita emissions 8 World average 4 tonnes per person per year Can sustain 2 tonnes per person per year 20.14 20.24 19.24 16.44 11.88 9.55 9.65 9.56 9.37 4.37 4.07 0.11 0.46 New Zealand Nepal Japan India China Bangladesh 2.00 1.07 0.28 Australia South Africa Kenya Russia United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Guyana Brazil United States Canada 0.28 Tanzania 0.11 1.94 2.07 Vanuatu 10.24 4.07 1.94 2.07 Vanuatu 9.65 New Zealand 0.11 1.07 Nepal 9.56 Japan 0.28 India China Bangladesh 20.14 Australia 0.11 0.28 Tanzania 9.55 South Africa Kenya Russia 10.24 United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Guyana Brazil United States Canada Who? 19.24 20.24 16.44 11.88 9.37 4.37 2.00 0.46 As is GHG dumping 4.07 1.94 2.07 Vanuatu 9.65 New Zealand 0.11 1.07 Nepal 9.56 Japan 0.28 India China Bangladesh 20.14 Australia 0.11 0.28 Tanzania 9.55 South Africa Kenya Russia 10.24 United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Guyana Brazil United States Canada Reduce – to converge 19.24 20.24 16.44 11.88 9.37 4.37 2.00 0.46 4.07 1.94 2.07 Vanuatu 9.65 New Zealand 0.11 1.07 Nepal 9.56 Japan 0.28 India China Bangladesh 20.14 Australia 0.11 0.28 Tanzania 9.55 South Africa Kenya Russia 10.24 United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Guyana Brazil United States Canada Increase to converge Climate justice 19.24 20.24 16.44 11.88 9.37 4.37 2.00 0.46 Equity THE POLITICS The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 191 countries have ratified the Convention recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource it is a Framework for Intergovernmental efforts to * gather and share information greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices * launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts, * cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries THE POLITICS COP1 -The Berlin Mandate 1995 Common but Differentiated responsibilities Developing countries refused to take up binding commitments Two year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP) to address the original goal of the convention - to stabilize GHG emissions by Annex 1 countries at 1990 levels by 2000 THE POLITICS The Kyoto Protocol It is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 calculated as an average over the five-year commitment period of 2008-12 The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005. THE POLITICS Flexible Mechanisms CDMs THE POLITICS COP13 - Bali 2007 The Bali Action Plan: Twin track Process IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40% < 1990 levels THE POLITICS COP 14 at Poznan, Poland The National Action Plan on Climate Change India Key issues for Copenhagen 350 / 450? ppm 2°C / 1.5°C ISSUES INVOLVED • Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries ISSUES INVOLVED • Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries • bogey increased CO2 likely from newly industrialised countries • elephant in the room population! ISSUES INVOLVED • Inadequate current reduction targets compared to urgency of the problem IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40% EU : 20% - 30% US : 17% Japan : 25% ISSUES INVOLVED • Fudging on the CUT OFF – BASE Year: IPCC – Bali EU US Japan : 25% - 40% 1990 : 20% - 30% 2000? : 17% 2005 : 25% 1990 ISSUES INVOLVED • Total emissions – per capita emissions bogey India and China among the top five emitters – total emissions total emissions today Copenhagen Discord Copenhagen Discord 28 Role of Civil Society Today? Role of Civil Society • Significant Role in the run-up to Kyoto CAN CSE • Then commercial interests took over The Corporation! It is an entity! It has the rights of an individual The buck stops with this entity But the power, the benefits, and the freedom go to the individuals behind these entities Role of Civil Society As a result today there is a divide: International NGOs vs Third World NGOs Policy / Advocacy NGOs vis a vis Grassroots beyond Marx and Capitalism • poverty and oppression are issues of power • poverty is technology and finance gone haywire • development causes poverty IMPLICATIONS • Inequity is growing as theRe-define development: Traditionally, Development = growth + equity + social justice. trickle down theory has failed Percent income Richest 25% Middle 50% Poorest 25% 1860 1913 58% 30% 12% 69% 25% 6% 1960 72% 25% 3% Richest 20% Middle 60% Poorest 20% 74% 24% 2% 2000 beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Change The overthrow of oppressive, exploitative structures Structural Adjustment Adjusting to reality, pragmatic programmes Managing problems – transfer of technology, knowhow beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Transformation beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Transformation economic, cultural, social, political and spiritual institutions that reflect the voices and power of the marginalized beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Transformation • we have myriads of initiatives and experiments across the country, sub-continet, the world • they are isolated, random, dispersed beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Transformation • we need a myriad democratised intermediary level institutions that link these initiatives • Focus on entitlements and capabilities beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Transformation • democracy is the answer to poverty and scarcity China is no model – it is an extreme imitation of all that has gone wrong with the west • democracy is giving voice and action to the marginalized Decentralisation Layers of Autonomy local, regional, national, (international) based on Entitlements and Capabilities Implies recognition of local traditions - knowledge, technology skills, culture, … democratization of science, technology and finance neither only bottom-up; or top down beyond Marx and Capitalism Structural Transformation • in structural transformation – the independent, autonomous quest for alternatives it’s a subversive function – satyagraha Our participation in Structural Transformation We are part of the problem urban high transaction costs excessive mobility high consumption conduits of the top-down approach We can be part of the solution dealing with our own carbon footprint respect for the dignity of local capabilities be the intersection facilitating the cross flow of information, knowledge and other resources urban resource: decentralised, democratised beyond Marx and Capitalism Learning from Gandhi • Gandhi's voluntarism was a major shift in voluntarism practiced in traditional Indian society. • It emphasized empowerment and transformation of society and acquired a political content. • However, these voluntary initiatives had none of the organizational characters to classify them as modern. Structural Transformation let us be part of the Solution with conviction commitment and compassion This is true satyagraha Thank You