Download Generic overview from Caribbean - Global Environmental Change

GECAFS “DECISION SUPPORT
SYSTEMS” INITIAL WORKSHOP
20 – 21 AUGUST 2003
UNIVERSITY OF READING, UNITED
KINGDOM
GENERIC OVERVIEW FROM THE
CARIBBEAN
RICHARD C. HARRISON
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE
JAMAICA
1. Decision support needs for policy
formulation in food – socio-economic environmental issues.
It is generally accepted that the Caribbean is
short of expertise to do comprehensive
analyses necessary for the prediction of future
environmental trends in the region.
Given this fact, decision support needs would
include:

The development of comprehensive
data sets and analytical models to
accurately forecast and predict the
adverse effect of climate change on
Caribbean food systems. This will be
required in order to properly plan
mitigation measures.
Some questions that arise include:
• What will be the quantitative effect on yield
of crops, particularly staples as a result of
climate change?
• What will be the rate of progression for sea
level rise? What will be the extent of
Salinization of coastal areas and loss of farm
land due inundation:
• What will be the extent of the deterioration
in the quality of underground water sources in
coastal environments and the quantitative
effect on production?
 What
will be the socio-economic cost of the
loss of livelihood for farmers and fisher folks
from reduced productivity and the social
impact on Caribbean societies?
• Consider the implications for regional
food security as a result of increasing food
deficit, particularly staple food, which will
be of importance for policy makers.
 Should this deficit be supplemented by
imports or should there be a shift in
production or should there be a combination
of both?
This decision is not easily made for the
region given our small size and the complex
socio-political - economic and bio physical
interactions.
2. Users of information generated by DDS.
It is envisaged that the main users of the
decision support systems in the Caribbean
would include policy makers in
Government, regional and international
agencies and organizations involved in
medium
and
long
term
policy
development for the region. Selected
private sector entities are potential users
of the information, particularly those with
medium to long term development
interest in the region.
3.
Distribution of the Information
This can be achieved through the
production of bulletins, newsletters
directed at the stakeholders, regular
consultations and more direct contact
between the main users and the Technical
and Scientific Advisory Committee of
GECAFS. In order to facilitate this, I
would suggest the setting up of
permanent GECAFS Sub regional office
in the Caribbean to provide technical
support.
The obvious advantages of this close
liaison would be the on the spot
technical assistance in the analysis of
the emerging trends in food production
systems in response to climate change,
the planning of mitigating measures,
communicating
the
findings
of
research projects and generally
working closely with the stakeholders.