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Global Monitoring Report 2008 MDGs and the Environment Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development 1 World on track on poverty reduction and gender parity at school MDGs, but serious shortfalls likely on nutrition, education, health, and sanitation goals d 2 Africa lags on all MDGs, South Asia on most human development goals. At country level, most countries are off track to meet most MDGs 3 Progress toward MDGs slowest in fragile states— even negative on some MDGs 4 Agenda ahead • Assessment at midpoint shows urgent need to generate stronger, more inclusive momentum toward the MDGs • With stronger efforts by countries and by development partners, most MDGs still achievable for most countries • As MDG 7 underscores, development and environmental sustainability are integrally linked • In this Year of Action for MDGs, need to agree on priority actions and milestones for monitoring progress • Report emphasizes a six-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development 5 MDGs and the environment: A six-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development • Sustain and broaden the growth momentum • Achieve better results in human development • Integrate development and environmental sustainability • Scale up aid and increase its effectiveness • Harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth • Leverage IFI support for inclusive and sustainable development 6 Increased risks from financial turbulence— developing-country growth slowing but still robust annual % change 8 6 4 2 0 World output 2007 Advanced economies 2008 (Projected) Emerging market and developing countries Africa 2009 (Projected) 7 Private capital flows expected to ease but remain relatively abundant Net private capital flows to developing countries $ billions Percent $1 trillion in 2007 1000 8 800 6 Percent of GDP (right axis) 600 4 400 2 200 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008P 8 Sharp rises in energy and food prices add to risks Commodity Price Index (1990=100) 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1992 1994 grains 1996 1998 raw materials 2000 2002 metals 2004 2006 2008 energy 9 Growth in Africa has improved, but varies widely across countries 10 Growth needs to be more inclusive— both across and within countries Annual change in Gini coefficient in 59 developing countries 11 More but better spending on education and health Public spending on education and health typically favors the rich 12 National income positively related to health quality—public health spending alone is not Relationship of health quality to income and public health spending 13 Stronger focus needed on combating malnutrition—higher food prices increase urgency Incidence of stunting remains high in low-income countries 14 Environmental health risks—a significant concern Economic burden of poor environmental health can be high— 1.5-4% of GDP annually 15 Deforestation causes loss of forest equivalent in size to Panama or Sierra Leone every year Annual deforestation by region and income group, 2000-05 16 Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change and least able to adapt Impact of climate change on agricultural yields, 2079-99 17 Mitigation calls for common but differentiated responsibilities Per capita GHG emissions (including from land use change), 2000 18 Countries’ absorptive capacity rising, but aid falling DAC members’ net ODA flows 19 Donor performance varies widely DAC members’ ODA 20 Time to deliver on aid commitments is now Most of the promised increase in aid has not yet materialized 2004 US$ billions 150 Total Net ODA Net ODA to SSA 120 90 60 30 0 All DAC donors G7 donors 2004 2007 All DAC donors G7 donors 2010 target* *Based on commitments made at Gleneagles and other donor commitments in 2005 21 Doha remains crucial Support to agriculture has not been declining Gross subsidy equivalents of assistance to farmers, 1960-2004 22 Increase aid for trade—to promote inclusiveness in exploitation of trade opportunities Aid for trade, average 2002-06 23 Trade policy should facilitate transfer of environmentally friendly technologies Environmental goods currently confront significant trade restrictiveness Trade Restrictiveness Index (%) 24 MDBs had record disbursements in 2007 Even as their relative financing role declines, international financial institutions’ impact through leverage remains key MDBs’ gross disbursements by type of flow and region, 2000-07 25 Extra Slides 26 Diversity of food price impacts on poverty Impact of food price increases in 2005-07 on $1/day poverty $1/day poverty rate 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Bo i liv a b m a C ia od M ga a ad a sc r M aw al i c Ni Rural ua g a ar k Pa n ta s i Urban r Pe u e Vi am tn m Za a bi Av ag r e e Total 27 Rising food prices—countries are responding, but differently Safety net interventions Food price policies Percentage of 58 countries Percentage of 58 countries 30 45 40 25 35 30 25 20 20 15 15 10 5 10 on e N po rt co re nt st ro ric ls /c tio on ns su m er su bs id ie s in fo od gr a as e In cr e R Ex ic e Pr Sc ho ol fe ed in g am p Fo od ra t io n/ st fo rw or k Fo od C as h tra ns f er 0 ed uc e fo od gr ai n ta x 5 st oc ks es 0 28 Special Theme Environmental Sustainability 29 Adjusted net savings trends 1990-2005 30 Natural resource dependence and sustainability Depletion of natural resources is often associated with declining national wealth 50 40 Percent of GNI Natural resource dependence patterns vary across regions 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Major oil producers Non-renewable resource rents Adjusted net saving 31 Depletion of natural resources: it’s not just oil Annual deforestation (2000-2005) Freshwater availability (trends and projections) 32 Monitoring environmental policies and institutions Progress in institutional and policy performance has been uneven across regions (CPIA environment scores) CPIA disaggregated scores show that there is a gap between policy formulation and capacity to enforce 33 Global Environmental SustainabilityOne Size Does Not Fit All High income countries Provide global public goods – e.g. Kyoto and beyond High deforestation countries (e.g. Brazil) – Eliminate perverse incentives, improve governance Biodiversity rich countries (e.g. Peru) – Conserve natural areas, tap global finance for conservation, develop ecotourism High child mortality countries (e.g. Mali) Provide water and sanitation, improve access to electricity Countries in transition (e.g. Ukraine) Increase energy efficiency and control pollution Rapidly growing countries (e.g. China, India) Reduce carbon intensity of growth AgricultureIncreasing water dependent scarcity (e.g. MNA) countries (e.g. Increase water use Ethiopia) efficiency, define Manage land and water use rights water resources, diversify assets Sub-soil resource rich countries (e.g. Mozambique) Invest resource rents, improve governance Rapidly urbanizing countries (e.g. Vietnam) Manage pollution from transport and industry 34 Climate Change and Development 35 Climate change impacts on agriculture % change in output Impact of baseline global warming on agriculture (by 2080) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 MWI ZAR TZA NER GNB Countries with lowest GDP USA NOR CHE DNK NLD Countries with highest GDP 36 Climate change impacts health, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and part of South Asia Estimated deaths due to climate change in 2000, by WHO subregion 37 Sea level rise % impacted Vulnerability to sea level rise, 1m 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Area LA Population MENA SSA GDP EA Urban extent Ag. Extent Wetlands SA 38 Maldives Pakistan Sri Lanka MNA India Bangladesh Syria Yemen Tunisia LAC Jordan Iran Nicaragua Haiti EAP Belize Antigua Barbados Honduras Philippines Solomon Islands Laos PDR SSA Samoa Tonga Botswana Djibouti Sudan Mozambique Ethiopia Climate vulnerability: Weather damage index 2500 SAR 2000 1500 1000 500 0 39 Comparison of emissions for Annex I and NonAnnex I countries Annex I: Developed countries Non-Annex I: Developing countries Source: CAIT Version 5.0 (World Resources Institute, 2008) 40 Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 41 Energy access (percent of population without access to electricity, 2005) Transition economies and OECD Developing Countries Middle East Latin America South Asia China and East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent 42 Climate Change Priorities Mitigation Adaptation Common but differentiated responsibilities across countries For developing countries, best way to adapt is to develop, which will: •diversify economies •reduce climate-sensitive diseases: malaria, malnutrition and diarrhea •provide the resources to adapt Carbon intensity of GDP must be reduced by: •pricing / trading carbon •development and diffusion of cleaner, energy efficient technologies •development of renewable energy •financing and technology transfer •reducing deforestation using carbon finance Programs to reduce vulnerability and “climate proof” investments Implementing early warning systems for heat waves, floods, droughts Building dams to accommodate 43 increased runoff World Bank: Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development 1. Make effective climate action – both adaptation and mitigation – part of core development efforts 2. Address the resource gap through existing and innovative instruments for concessional finance 3. Facilitate the development of innovative market mechanisms 4. Create enabling environment for and leveraging private sector finance 5. Accelerate the deployment of existing and development of new climate-friendly technologies 6. Step-up policy research, knowledge management and capacity building 44