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The Politics of immigration Peter Kellner Chairman Saliency in 2005 Which two or three issues matter most? (top six of 12 shown) April 5 % Health 41 Immigration 40 Crime 36 Tax 30 The economy 27 Education 20 Saliency in 2005 Which two or three issues matter most? (top six of 12 shown) April 5 May 5 % % Health 41 44 Immigration 40 37 Crime 36 30 Tax 30 26 The economy 27 32 Education 20 28 Priorities for Gordon Brown What should be his top priorities? (top six of 12 shown) Reduce immigration Bring home troops from Iraq Act on climate change Build more prisons Higher taxes on £100k+ More parent, patient choice All % 65 53 38 35 34 32 Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 Priorities for Gordon Brown What should be his top priorities? (top six of 12 shown) Reduce immigration Bring home troops from Iraq Act on climate change Build more prisons Higher taxes on £100k+ More parent, patient choice All % 65 53 38 35 34 32 Lab % 53 43 45 31 44 31 Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 Priorities for Gordon Brown What should be his top priorities? (top six of 12 shown) Reduce immigration Bring home troops from Iraq Act on climate change Build more prisons Higher taxes on £100k+ More parent, patient choice All % 65 53 38 35 34 32 Lab % 53 43 45 31 44 31 Party members % 20 25 56 16 51 23 Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 39 Attitudes towards immigration Positive statements Agree % Disagree % Many immigrants have contributed positively to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 Eastern Europeans working here are hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 Attitudes towards immigration Positive statements Agree % Disagree % Many immigrants have contributed positively to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 Eastern Europeans working here are hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 Immigration from Eastern Europe has helped Britain’s economy to grow 24 48 NHS would collapse without steady supply of new immigrants 20 57 Attitudes towards immigration Negative statements Agree % 75 Disagree % 15 Current immigration levels make community relations more difficult 74 13 Britain is losing its identity / culture 72 21 Because of low immigrant pay, it’s harder for our unemployed & low-skilled to find work 57 28 Britain is overcrowded Immigration statistics Government figures… Are accurate and tell the full story All % 1 Are accurate as far as they go, but don’t tell the full story 29 Are inaccurate 56 Immigration statistics Government figures… Are accurate and tell the full story All % 1 Lab % 2 Are accurate as far as they go, but don’t tell the full story 29 49 Are inaccurate 56 32 What should the Tories do? Take a tougher stance on immigration? All % Con % Agree 62 85 Disagree 15 9 What should the Tories do? Take a tougher stance on immigration? All % Con % Agree 62 85 Disagree 15 9 But remember Romsey by-election What should the Tories do? Views of party members, Sept 2005 ‘The new party leader should campaign more on the economy and the public services, and less on immigration, than in this year’s general election campaign’ Support Oppose 74% 17% Len Pen’s record 1974-81 1974 1978 1981 Pres. elections % 0.4 - FN Deputies votes seats % 0.3 0.2 0 0 Len Pen’s record The 1986 breakthrough 1974 1978 1981 1986 Pres. elections % 0.4 - FN Deputies votes seats % 0.3 0.2 0 0 9.7 35 Len Pen’s record Since 1986 Pres. elections % 1988 14.5 1995 15.0 2002 16.9 2007 10.4 Len Pen’s record Since 1986 1986 1988 1993 1995 1997 2002 2007 Pres. elections % 14.5 FN Deputies votes seats % 9.7 35 9.7 1 13.8 0 15.0 16.9 10.4 15.0 11.3 1 0