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The Politics
of
immigration
Peter Kellner
Chairman
Saliency in 2005
Which two or three issues matter most?
(top six of 12 shown)
April 5
%
Health
41
Immigration
40
Crime
36
Tax
30
The economy
27
Education
20
Saliency in 2005
Which two or three issues matter most?
(top six of 12 shown)
April 5
May 5
%
%
Health
41
44
Immigration
40
37
Crime
36
30
Tax
30
26
The economy
27
32
Education
20
28
Priorities for Gordon Brown
What should be his top priorities?
(top six of 12 shown)
Reduce immigration
Bring home troops from Iraq
Act on climate change
Build more prisons
Higher taxes on £100k+
More parent, patient choice
All
%
65
53
38
35
34
32
Nb: Reform House of Lords
11
Priorities for Gordon Brown
What should be his top priorities?
(top six of 12 shown)
Reduce immigration
Bring home troops from Iraq
Act on climate change
Build more prisons
Higher taxes on £100k+
More parent, patient choice
All
%
65
53
38
35
34
32
Lab
%
53
43
45
31
44
31
Nb: Reform House of Lords
11
18
Priorities for Gordon Brown
What should be his top priorities?
(top six of 12 shown)
Reduce immigration
Bring home troops from Iraq
Act on climate change
Build more prisons
Higher taxes on £100k+
More parent, patient choice
All
%
65
53
38
35
34
32
Lab
%
53
43
45
31
44
31
Party
members
%
20
25
56
16
51
23
Nb: Reform House of Lords
11
18
39
Attitudes towards immigration
Positive statements
Agree
%
Disagree
%
Many immigrants have contributed positively
to Britain’s quality of life
58
27
Eastern Europeans working here are
hard-working, competent, reliable
38
23
Attitudes towards immigration
Positive statements
Agree
%
Disagree
%
Many immigrants have contributed positively
to Britain’s quality of life
58
27
Eastern Europeans working here are
hard-working, competent, reliable
38
23
Immigration from Eastern Europe has helped
Britain’s economy to grow
24
48
NHS would collapse without steady supply
of new immigrants
20
57
Attitudes towards immigration
Negative statements
Agree
%
75
Disagree
%
15
Current immigration levels make community
relations more difficult
74
13
Britain is losing its identity / culture
72
21
Because of low immigrant pay, it’s harder for
our unemployed & low-skilled to find work
57
28
Britain is overcrowded
Immigration statistics
Government figures…
Are accurate and tell the full story
All
%
1
Are accurate as far as they go, but
don’t tell the full story
29
Are inaccurate
56
Immigration statistics
Government figures…
Are accurate and tell the full story
All
%
1
Lab
%
2
Are accurate as far as they go, but
don’t tell the full story
29
49
Are inaccurate
56
32
What should the Tories do?
Take a tougher stance on immigration?
All
%
Con
%
Agree
62
85
Disagree
15
9
What should the Tories do?
Take a tougher stance on immigration?
All
%
Con
%
Agree
62
85
Disagree
15
9
But remember Romsey by-election
What should the Tories do?
Views of party members, Sept 2005
‘The new party leader should campaign more on the
economy and the public services, and less on
immigration, than in this year’s general election
campaign’
Support
Oppose
74%
17%
Len Pen’s record
1974-81
1974
1978
1981
Pres.
elections
%
0.4
-
FN Deputies
votes seats
%
0.3
0.2
0
0
Len Pen’s record
The 1986 breakthrough
1974
1978
1981
1986
Pres.
elections
%
0.4
-
FN Deputies
votes seats
%
0.3
0.2
0
0
9.7
35
Len Pen’s record
Since 1986
Pres.
elections
%
1988
14.5
1995
15.0
2002
16.9
2007
10.4
Len Pen’s record
Since 1986
1986
1988
1993
1995
1997
2002
2007
Pres.
elections
%
14.5
FN Deputies
votes seats
%
9.7
35
9.7
1
13.8
0
15.0
16.9
10.4
15.0
11.3
1
0