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Climate Change Scenario Analysis in
the Future Over western of China
Ying Xu Xuejie Gao Yun Gao
National Climate Centre, China
AIACC workshop, Philippines
Nov. 04, 2004
Outline
•
Part I: Possible Climate Change in Western
China due to human activities by AOGCM
•
Part II: Possible Climate Change in Western
China due to human activities by RegCM
(1) Climate Change in the future over China due to GHG
(2) Impacts of Land-use Change on Climate in China
•
Part III: next step work plan
Part I : Possible Climate Change in
Western China due to human
activities by GCM
Models Description
Author
AGCM
OGCM
NCC/IAP
T63
Ying Xu et
al (2003)
HADL
GFDL
CCCma
CSIRO
Mitchell & Haywood Boer, et al. Gordon &
Johns
et al.
(2000a,b) O’Farrell
(1997)
(1997)
(1997)
1.875X1.87 3.75×2.5/L1 R15/L9
T32/L10
R21/L9
5/L16
9
.875X1.875 3.75×2.5/L2 4.0×3.75/ 1.8×1.8/L2
R21/L21
/L30
0
L12
9
A2:
B2:
SRES scenario—A2
SRES scenario—B2
CCSR
Emori et al.
(1999)
T21/L20
2.8×2.8/L17
The change of temperature over western of China
in 21st century (unit:℃)
14
Red: 5 model mean
12
Dark blue: Hadley
A2
10
Sky blue: CCSR
8
Green: CCCma
6
Yellow: CSIRO
4
Pink: NCC/IAP
2
10
0
-2
-4
1960
8
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
For 5 models mean, the temperature
will increase about 8℃ under A2
scenario in the end of 21st century,
increasing is about 5℃ under B2
scenario.
B2
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Annual change of temperature over western
China (Unit :℃)
Region
China
South-West
North-West
SRES-A2
2011~2040
1.4
1.2
1.6
2041~2070
3.0
2.6
3.3
2071~2100
4.9
4.4
5.6
SRES-B2
2011~2040
1.5
1.2
1.8
2041~2070
2.7
2.3
3.1
2071~2100
3.6
3.3
4.0
The change of precipitation over western of China
in 21st century (unit:%)
Red: 5 model mean
60
A2
50
Dark blue: Hadley
40
Sky blue: CCSR
30
Green: CCCma
20
Yellow: CSIRO
10
Pink: NCC/IAP
60
0
B2
50
-10
40
-20
30
-30
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
For 5 models mean, the Pr. will
increase about 10% under A2
scenario in the end of 21st century, it
will increase 8% under B2 scenario.
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Annual change of precipitation over westarn
China (Unit :%)
Region
China
South-West
North-West
SRES-A2
2011~2040
1.4
1.2
1.6
2041~2070
3.0
2.6
3.3
2071~2100
4.9
4.4
5.6
SRES-B2
2011~2040
1.5
1.2
1.8
2041~2070
2.7
2.3
3.1
2071~2100
3.6
3.3
4.0
The seasonal precipitation change over
western of China in 21st century (unit:%)
70
Red: annual mean
A2
60
Dark blue: Spring
50
Sky blue: Summer
40
Green: Autumn
30
Yellow: Winter
70
20
B2
60
10
50
0
40
-10
-20
1960
30
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
The Pr. increasing is greater in
winter and spring, change is little
in summer and autumn under A2
and B2 scenarios.
20
10
0
-10
-20
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
The distribution of annual mean temperature
change over western of China (2070~2099)
(unit:℃）
The distribution of annual mean precipitation
change over western of China (2070~2099) (unit:%）
Part I : Conclusions
• Warming is obviously in western of China, warming is exceed
China mean value .
• Compared A2 scenario with B2, it shows a majority of
warming under A2 scenario than B2, So depend on different
greenhouse gases emission scenario, the climate will have
different change in the future.
• The annual mean precipitation will increase in the end of 21st
century.
• For different season, most obvious rainfall increase occurs in
winter and spring，the increase in autumn and summer are
little.
• For the spacial distribution, The precipitation has an
increasing trend, especially in the Western China and Northwestern China region, while the increase is not so obvious in
the Southwestern China
Part II
Possible Climate Change
in Western China due to the effect of human
activities by RegCM
Part Ⅱ
(1) Possible Climate Change in China
5 year RCM
5 year RCM CTL
12h
12 h
5 year GCM
5 year GCM CTL
2070
1881
Observed CO2 Concentration
1990
GCM Run
Model output was interpolated to 160 stations of China
Part Ⅱ
Annual mean Ts Change
in China
(unit: ℃)
Increase all over the area,
with a higher increase in
North China, it is obviously
in western of China
Part Ⅱ
Annual mean Pr
Change in China
(unit: %)
Increase in most
areas, higher in NW
Part Ⅲ
Change of
Annual mean
rain days (%)
●：-20～0
●：
0～10
■：
10～20
Part Ⅱ
Conclusions :
•
Ts in China will remarkably rises by 2.5oC, with
higher increase western of China
•
Pr will also increase by about 25%.
•
Increase of rain days in western of China.
PartⅣ
(2) Impacts of Land-use Change on Climate in China
Land-use changes a lot in China for its long agriculture
history and present big population pressure
PartⅣ
Landuse Change
in China
▼: tree →shrub
▲: tree → irrigated
crop farming
●: semi desert →
desert
■: tree → crop/mixed
farming
◆: grass→ rop/mixed
farming
Areas of no change:
2: short grass 3: evergreen needleleaf tree
5: deciduous broadleaf tree 6: evergreen broadleaf tree 7: tall grass 8: desert
PartⅣ
Experiment Design:
5 year RegCM2 run driven by
5 year CTL run of AOGCM
Exp 1. With potential vegetation cover
Exp 2. With present vegetation cover
Exp2-Exp1,
was thought as the impact of landuse change on climate
Plotted and analysed in 160 station positions
PartⅣ
Change of
Annual mean
Ts (℃)
●：-1.5～0
■：0～1.5
PartⅣ
Change of
Annual mean
Pr (%)
■：<-20%
：-20%～0
■
：0～20%
●
●：>20%
Dotted spots are stations with change passed 90% t - test, same as below
PartⅣ
Change of
Summer
Tmax (℃)
●：-2.4～0
■：0～2.4
■：2.5～4.4
◆：>4.5
PartⅣ
Change of
Winter
Tmin (℃)
●：<-2.4
●：-2.4～0
■：0～2.4
■：>2.5
PartⅣ
Change of
Annual mean
Soil moisture
(%)
■：-20～0
●：0 ～ 20
PartⅣ
Conclusions :
Current Landuse in China, may caused:
•
•
•
•
•
Less rainfall in NW;
Temperatures increasing is in Sichuan basin and part of NW
area;
Increasing of summer Tmax in many places, Increasing of
winter Tmin in NW;
Decrease of Soil moisture in many places, including western of
China;
Same landuse can cause different climate effect, depends on
the geography character in the area.
Part III Next step work
• Using dynamical downscaling is going to coutinue
simulate various episodes in 21st Century with the
regional climate model with the boundary conditions
provided by the global model.
• To apply the simulation results of the global and regional
climate models into a hydrological model, to simulate the
future hydrological cycle over the Western of China.
• To provide the projected climate change simulations over
the Northwestern China to the relative research groups
for impacts and adaption.
The End