Download VAMOS Overall Goals

CLIVAR’s Variability of the American
Monsoon Systems Panel (VAMOS)
2001: “VAMOS is based on two internationally coordinated
monsoon experiments: MESA in South America and NAME
in North America.”
2009: The term "monsoon system" encompasses not only the
summer monsoon rainfall in the tropical Americas, but also
the perturbations in the planetary, synoptic and mesoscale
flow patterns that occur in association with it, including
those in the winter hemisphere.
The region of interest covers both the tropical and the
extratropical Americas and surrounding oceans.
Variability of the American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS)
The annual cycle of convection over the Americas
IASCLIP
Horel et al. (1989)
VAMOS (2009)
Four Complementary Science Programs
• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Monsoon Experiment for South America (MESA)
• VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study (VOCALS)
• Inter-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP)
CLIVAR and GEWEX endorsed activity:
- La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project
Cross-cuts:
-
Modeling
Extremes
Anthropogenic Climate Change
Decadal Predictability
The North American Monsoon Experiment
Outstanding Questions and Remaining Challenges:
Predictions:
• Clear lack of predictability of many large-scale modes for long-lead pred.
• Need for improved downscaling methods for improved short-lead
seasonal and medium range predictions
• Resolve the failure of free running coupled OAGCMs to realistically
represent key features of the NAM hydroclimate
• Develop a process-based consensus on climate change impacts on NAM
D. Gochis, May 13, 2009
Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
Chair: J. Marengo
HYPOTHESIS:
The SAMS provides a physical basis for
determining the degree of predictability
on short- and long timescales over the region.
Selected MESA deliverables:
•More comprehensive understanding of South American climate variability and
predictability;
•Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration;
•Improved observing system design for monitoring and predicting the South American
monsoon system;
•Measurably improved weather and climate models that predict South American
monsoon variability.
VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study
(VOCALS)
GOALS of VOCALS
Improved understanding and regional/global model representation
of aerosol indirect effects over the Southeast Pacific Climate
System.
Elimination of CGCM systematic errors in the SEP, and improved
model simulations of the coupled system in the region and global
impacts of its variability.
www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocals
23 Universities
20 Research Institutions
6 Operational centers
www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocals
• The VOCALS Regional Experiment (REx) off the
Chilean Coast was completed in Oct-Nov 2008
• A four-part report with Rex information put in
VOCALS web site
(www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocals )
• Second VOCALS Meeting: 12-14 July 2009, Seattle,
Washington
• Data analysis and modeling continues in several centers.
IASCLIP main science issues
5 largest warm pools
(i)
What are the sources and predictability
of summertime anomalies in the WHWP?
(ii)
What are the structure and dynamics of
the regional atmospheric circulation and
low-level jets?
(iii) How doesIASCLIP
this flow depend
Linkson and interact
with boundary conditions such as the
WHWP, land heating, and topography to
modulate IASCLIP–NAME
precipitation and storms?
Great Plains Precipitation
Within this climate setting, how can
predictions of
important weather phenomena
IASCLIP-VOCALS
such as tropical cyclogenesis events within the
summer circulation
region beBoreal
improved?
5 smallest warm pools
IASCLIP-MESA
Boreal winter circulation
La Plata Basin research networks
Multiple Regional
Projects
CLARIS - LPB
A Europe-South America Network
for Climate Change Assessment
and Impact Studies
IAI - LPB
Ecosystems, Biodiversity,
Land Use and Cover, and
Water Resources
CLARIS LPB
http://www.claris-eu.org/
- 10 countries, 20 institutions Subproject 2: Past and future hydroclimate
Subproject 4: Socio-economic scenarios and
adaptation/ prevention strategies
Courtesy of Anna Sorensson
· WP3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin
· WP4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts
· WP5: Regional Climate Change assessments for La Plata Basin
· WP6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin
· WP8: Land use change, agriculture and socio-economic implications
· WP9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change
Cross-cut:
The VAMOS Modeling Plan
http://www.clivar.org/organization/vamos/
Publications/Vamos_Modeling_Plan_Jun08.pdf
Ben Kirtman, Celeste Saulo and others
Objectives
Improve the prediction of warm season
precipitation over the Americas, for societal
benefit, and to assess the implications of
climate change.
The VAMOS modeling plan seeks improvements to how we
model the interactions between the local processes and
regional and larger scale variability in regional and global
models.
Model development efforts must take on a multi-scale
approach that integrates across all of the[science
programs in VAMOS and, on the global scale, link with the
wider modeling initiatives in CLIVAR and WCRP.
VAMOS modeling plan
http://www.clivar.org/organization/vamos/
Publications/Vamos_Modeling_Plan_Jun08.pdf
1. Introduction
2. Modeling Strategy: A Multi-Scale Approach
3. Representation of monsoon processes for improving prediction
A) Simulating, Understanding and Predicting the Diurnal Cycle
B) Predicting the Pan-American Monsoon Onset, Mature and Demise
Stages
C) Modeling and Predicting SST Variability in the Pan-American Seas
D) Improving the Prediction of Droughts and Floods
4. Data assimilation, Analysis and Assessing Observing Systems
5. Prediction and Global-scale Linkages
Prediction issues
–Role of SSTs (especially other than ENSO)
–Role of land surface feedbacks (strength, time scales)
–Role of intraseasonal variability (e.g. MJO)
–Seasonal and Decadal differences in predictability
–Current Level of Quality
VAMOS Extremes Task Force
co-chaired by Lisa Goddard and Jean-Philippe Boulanger (2008/9)*
*2009-- Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti (TBC)
VAMOS will consider its continental perspective in linking
extremes in warm season climate behavior to the circulation
structures defined as the monsoon systems.
The VAMOS Extremes Task Force considered:
(1) Issues that are coherent across VAMOS program areas,
(2) Aspects of extremes that can be somewhat unique to
VAMOS, and
(3) How to capitalize and complement existing and on-going
efforts within the climate community (e.g., USCLIVAR;
CEOP).
(4) Social impact of extremes: seeking to quantify the cost of
specific extreme events
http://www.clivar.org/organization/vamos/Publications/vamos_extremes_21jul08.pdf
VAMOS Anthropogenic Climate Change task force
Tereza Cavazos, Dave Gochis, J.-P. Boulanger, J. Marengo
In the climate change context, there is a need to identify and
understand important processes that control monsoonal climates
in the Americas, their variability and changes, and how these
processes interact with broader societal issues, such as impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation.
Challenges
Assessment of GCM model performance and uncertainties
Improvement of the simulation and understanding of major
tropical and monsoon-related modes of variability
Investigation of the role of aerosols, land cover and land
use on the radiative balance and hydrological processes
Development of detection and attribution studies
Regional climate downscaling for integrated assessments
of climate change
Regional impact assessment studies
Basic Needs
Observations of sufficient detail and scope are
required to improve validation, models and model
ensembles and to ensure that monsoon-related
processes can be adequately elucidated, predicted
and projected
Improve or create regional databases that include
observations, GCM model simulations, and regional
downscaling simulations at daily and monthly
timescales of the American monsoon regions
North American Regional Climate Change
Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
• Assess regional climate change for North America by downscaling
4 AOGCMs with 6 RCMs.
• Each RCM downscales two AOGCMs
• Standard output format similar to AR4/CMIP3, downloadable
from the Earth System Grid (ESG).
• Project phases and status:
• Phase I: RCMs driven by reanalysis (1979-2004) to examine
uncertainty in RCMs (completed)
• Phase IIa: RCMs driven by AOGCM output for 20th century
(1971-2000) (nearing completion)
• Phase IIb: RCMs driven by AOGCM output from SRES A2
scenario (2041-2070) (nearing completion)
NARCCAP Design
Current climate or Scenario
global climate models
CCSM
GFDL
HadCM3
CGCM3
Provide boundary conditions
regional climate models
MM5
Iowa
State
RegCM3
MRCC
HadRM3
RSM
WRF
UC Santa
Cruz, ICTP
U. Quebec,
Ouranos
Hadley
Centre
Scripps
NCAR/
PNNL
CLARIS-LPB
Regional climate change assessments
WP5 specific objectives:
● Coordinate efforts to produce ensembles of the regional models toward an
integrated view of the expected regional hydroclimate in South America in
general and La Plata Basin in particular.
● Investigate the range of differences between the projections employing a suite
of mesoscale regional models.
● Contribute to the knowledge of downscaled climate model scenarios for the La
Plata basin region, and quantify their associated uncertainties.
CLARIS-LPB WP-5
Regional climate change and downscaling
- Regional climate model scenarios (BCs: A1B)
1990-2005 (ERA-Interim), GCMs
2010-2040
2070-2100
- Metrics
Specific deliverables are:
5.1: A set of metrics to be employed in model performance
5.2: Uncertainties in simulations from Task 1 will be examined
and reported.
Selected CLIVAR Priorities
•
Anthropogenic Climate Change
•
•
•
•
Natural variability versus forced change
Climate sensitivity and feedbacks
Regional phenomena
Extremes
•
Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
•
Intra-to-Seasonal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
•
•
•
Monsoons (and ENSO, TAV, …)
ISV/MJO
…
WCRP CLIVAR SSG-16 19-22 May 2009
Madrid, Spain
Jim Hurrell, Co-Chair, International CLIVAR SSG
•
Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs
•
•
•
Analysis and Evaluation
“Climate Process Teams” (process studies)
Capacity Building
•
•
•
Summer schools
Topical workshops
Expert training
WCRP CLIVAR SSG-16 19-22 May 2009
Madrid, Spain
Jim Hurrell, Co-Chair, International CLIVAR SSG
In summary:
VAMOS can contribute with its regional expertise to
advance CLIVAR’s Imperatives…
VAMOS promotes communications between science
components, Cross-cuts, Research networks…
VAMOS is interested in increasing and strengthening
the links with USCLIVAR and other Climate Programs…