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Climate Change Mitigation and
Sustainable Development:
A Framework for Integration
John Robinson
CLA, WGIII
July 18, 2001
Purpose of Presentation
• Report on the findings from TAR
WGIII and the SRES that relate to the
issue of sustainable development
Why consider Sustainable
Development (SD) in TAR?
• SD and climate change mitigation (CCM) are
linked
– SD policies may affect emissions and mitigative
capacity
– CCM affects SD prospects
• SAR pointed to connections but didn’t explore
•
them in detail
Cross-cutting paper on development, equity and
sustainability produced
What is Sustainable Development?
• Many definitions but can usefully think of SD in
terms of 10 challenges:
- Clean air
- Transportation
- Clean water
- Housing
- Food
- Jobs
- Energy
- Waste disposal
- Land use
- Health care
• Key is integration across all three domains of SD:
social, economic and environmental
Elements of Sustainable Development
An Integrated Assessment Framework for
Considering Anthropogenic Climate Change
Climate
Change
Mitigation
Emissions
Impacts
Socio-Economic
Development
Paths
Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation
and Sustainable Development in WGIII
(Chapter 1)
Development paths
SD
(Chapter 2)
Ancillary benefits
CCM
(Chapters 7-9)
(Chapter 10)
(Chapters 3-6)
WGIII Findings
1. Implications of CCM for SD
SD
CCM
2. Implications of SD for CCM
SD
CCM
3. Integrating CCM and SD Policies
SD
CCM
1. Implications of Climate Change
Mitigation for Sustainable Development
• Climate change mitigation is likely to
have significant impacts on the prospects
for SD in various regions and sectors
– Mitigation will reduce climate change and
other impacts on human and natural
systems (“ancillary benefits”)
– Effects of mitigation policies and regimes
Mitigation Limits Climate Change Impacts
I. Unique and Threatened Systems
II. Extreme Climate Events
III. Distribution of Impacts
IV. Global aggregate impacts
V. Large Scale, High Impact Events
Mitigation and Other Environmental Issues
Mitigation Policies and
Sustainable Development
• Rate of mitigation affects employment,
welfare and intergenerational impacts
– Slower mitigation can reduce shock
effects and lower costs if stabilization
targets are higher
– Faster mitigation can reduce negative
longer-term impacts, induce technological
change, and lower long-term costs if
stabilization targets are lower
2. Implications of Sustainable Development
for Climate Change Mitigation
• Achieving SD goals will reduce
emissions and contribute to mitigative
capacity
– This can be seen by taking a look at the
SRES and post-SRES analyses
Development Paths and Emissions:
SRES Baseline Scenarios
A1
A2
B1
B2
Mitigation and Development Paths:
Comparison of reference (SRES) and
stabilization (post-SRES) scenarios
Global Anthropogenic Carboon Dioxide Emissions (GtC)
40
35
30
40
IPCC SRES A1B Scenarios
40
IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios
35
A1B
A1T
30
35
30
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
A1B
15
10
650
550
450
5
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
30
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
IPCC SRES A2 Scenarios
A2
35
A1FI
A
10
750
6
550
450
5
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
40
40
40
35
A1T
650
550
450
5
0
0
1990
10
IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios
IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios
30
35
B1
30
IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios
B2
A2
25
25
25
20
20
20
15
15
15
B2
750
10
10
10
5
5
1990
550
450
0
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
650
550
450
B1
550
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
5
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
3. Integrating Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable
Development Policies
• Climate change policies may be more
effective if integrated into sustainable
development goals and policies
Linkages between Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Development
SD
policy
SD
• Environmental & economic policies
• Human and social capital
• Infrastructure
• Innovation and technology
•Avoided CC impacts
•Costs and distribution of costs
•Ancillary benefits
•Forestry/agriculture impacts
CCM
CCM
policy
Conclusions
• There are strong linkages between
•
CCM and SD
Preliminary indications suggest that
putting CCM in a SD context will
improve the prospects for achieving
both CCM and SD goals