Download Transport and Climate Change Presentation

Transport Planning Society
Transport and Climate Change – facing the
carbon emissions challenge
David Quarmby CBE
25 April 2007
Transport and Climate Change
Facing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
 Setting the Scene
 Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge
 Issues to address




Sectoral reduction targets
Transport efficiency measures
Transport behavioural change
Government and public attitudes?
 Conclusions so far
Setting the scene
 A fast moving scenario
 UK Climate Change Programme – March 2006
 HoC Environmental Audit Committee – July 2006
 Stern Report – September 2006 and forthcoming
government response
 Mini-Budget put up APD but nothing else – Nov 06
 Eddington backs full environmental pricing – Dec 06
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 First report Jan 07 – on temperature change
 Second report Mar 07 – on impacts
 Climate Change Bill published – Mar 07
 Budget increases fuel duty, steepens VED
 Transport Sec Douglas Alexander major speech – Mar 07
Setting the scene




The basic proposition about climate change
IPCC2: huge impacts in developing world
“Adaptation take precedence over CO2 reduction”?
Stern:
 could shrink global economies by 20%, losses of £3.5
trillion
 If appropriate action now, could cost 1% of global GDP
 Kyoto – reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
12.5% below 1990 by 2012 (exc aviation &
shipping)
 Focus on CO2 emissions, 85% of greenhouse gas
Setting the scene
 UK is committed to CO2 reduction of
 20% below 1990 levels by 2010
 60% reduction by 2050; Climate Change Bill
enshrines in law
 Reduction from 161.5 MtC to
 129 MtC by 2010
 65 MtC by 2050
Emissions in million tonnes of carbon (MtC)
230
Greenhouse gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions
Kyoto target by 2008-2012
PSA CO2 target
RCEP CO2 target 2050
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
20
26
20
29
20
32
20
35
20
38
20
41
20
44
20
47
20
50
50
Year
Eleanor McKay – TPS Bursary Presentation – 18 April 2007
Setting the scene
 1990 reference level of 161.5 MtC
 By 2000, already down to 150 MtC – but
 Stuck there - by 2006, risen again to 153
MtC (highest since 1997)
The UK’s targets are very ambitious
Government has willed the ends, but said
nothing about the means
UK performance can be profoundly affected
by marginal change in one sector
Setting the scene
 Why bother – UK less than 3% of global emissions
 Four reasons to bother and act
 There is no silver bullet – every little helps
 Would have no moral authority to persuade others
 Global business opportunities for the UK in products
and services relating to carbon reduction, energy
efficiency and emissions trading systems
 UK: a low carbon economy increasingly competitive
 But must stay closely in step with EU to guard UK
competitive position
Transport and Climate Change
Facing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
 Setting the Scene
 Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge
 Issues to address




Sectoral reduction targets
Transport efficiency measures
Transport behavioural change
Government and public attitudes?
 Conclusions so far
Transport and Carbon Emissions
 UK transport carbon emissions rising from 1990
 Road transport +10% to 2005
 Aviation (domestic and UK international) doubled to
2004; UK international aviation excluded from table:
Year
1990
2000
2006
2015
2030
Transport CO2
emissions MtC
39
41
44
47
52
24%
27%
29%
31%
32%
Transport %of all
CO2 emissions
The forecasts are DfT; EU forecasts are higher for UK
Transport and Carbon Emissions
 Emissions from cars stable – improved
fuel efficiency offset growth in car
ownership and use
 Emissions from road freight vehicles rising
– growth in numbers, little fuel efficiency
impacts
 Emissions from aviation growing the
fastest, international and domestic
Transport and Carbon Emissions
Year
1990
2000
2010
UK
Aviation
CO2
emissions
5 MtC
9 MtC
11 MtC
% all UK
CO2 ems
2.8%
5.8%
7.3%
2020
2030
15 MtC
18 MtC
17.5MtC* 21.5 MtC*
10.0%
12.0%
 UK aviation = domestic + international departures
 Source DTI White Paper; *Tyndall Centre
 Effect of radiative forcing means climate change impact of
aviation CO2 emissions is at least doubled
Transport and Climate Change
Facing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
 Setting the Scene
 Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge
 Issues to address




Sectoral reduction targets
Transport efficiency measures
Transport behavioural change
Government and public attitudes?
 Conclusions so far
Issues to address
 How to allocate reductions between
sectors – what trajectory?
 What transport efficiency measures
 What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise?
 Government and public attitudes
Reductions between sectors
 Counter-productive to allocate long term
targets between sectors?
 Analysing trade-offs, financial-economicsocial costs with each measure and its
reduction value
 Cost minimising trajectory
 Assemble ‘best package’ of measures
Reductions between sectors
 40% of CO2 emissions directly influenced
by individuals on a day-to-day basis
 Is the government doing any analysis of
tradeoffs?
Issues to address
 How to allocate reductions between
sectors – what trajectory?
 What transport efficiency measures
 What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise?
 Government and public attitudes
Transport - efficiencies
 Reduction of emissions with no change in
transport output
 New cars 10% more fuel efficient 2004 vs
1997
 EU had target of 120 g/km average for
new cars by 2012
 EU now legislated at 130 g/km
 Currently new cars averaging 161 g/km
(European) and 169 g/km (Asian)
Transport - efficiencies
 How to deliver
 Much higher proportion of diesel cars
 Increased offer and take up of hybrid cars
 Reduction of average car size and weight
 UK: company car tax scheme since 2002
successfully incentivised change
 UK: graduated VED is ineffective
 Low Carbon Vehicle partnership
 King/Stern study
 How, when to reach 100 g/km
 Decarbonise cars by 2025
Transport - efficiencies
 Fastest rising source of surface transport
carbon emissions is road freight and light
vans
 Light vans subject to same graduated VED
 HGV VED - no fuel efficiency or carbon
incentives beyond EURO IV and EURO V
requirements
 London LEZ will force fleet renewal or
retrofitting
 Hybrid engines offer leap in efficiency
Transport - efficiencies
 Hybrid powertrain –
 primary source (petrol or diesel, in future fuel cell?) +
 energy capture, storage and release (electricity or
flywheel)
 Productionised is petrol-electric (cars) and dieselelectric (buses and large goods vehicles)
 Cars: Toyota Prius, Honda Civic, Lexus deliver
30-50% improvement in fuel efficiency and
reduction in CO2 emissions
Hybrid powertrain
Series
|MotorEngine =====Generator >>>> Battery >>>>>>
<<<<<<
|transmission
Parallel
>>>>>>
<<<<<<
Engine========Generator-Motor ====== Transmission
Battery
Transport - efficiencies
 Hybrid bus
 Wright – series powertrain, adds 60% to cost of
standard diesel bus; less when productionised
 Volvo – parallel powertrain – ISAM (Integrated Starter,
Alternator and Motor): working to 25-35% premium
including batteries and control systems
 Both claim ~ 35% reduction in fuel consumption and
carbon emissions
 Volvo also offering ISAM powertrain for trucks
 Hybrid only hope for big reductions in truck
emissions
Volvo ISAM Parallel hybrid
Transport - efficiencies
 Rail – CO2 emissions one-third of car per pass-km
 Rail rolling stock energy consumption has
increased in last 15 years
 Rail getting the message?
 Eurostar ‘Tread Lightly’ initiative
 Opportunities in railway practices
Transport - efficiencies
 Aviation
 New aircraft today 70% more fuel efficient than 40
years ago, 20% better than 10 years ago
 Further improvements of 20% by 2015 and 40-50% by
2050
 Includes 10% due to ATM operational efficiencies
 Typical shorthaul flight releases 170 g/km per
passenger in carbon emissions comparable to
larger cars – but greenhouse gas effect times 2+
 Problem is emissions per hour, not per km
 Aviation ‘problem’ is also the rapid forecast growth
Issues to address
 How to allocate reductions between
sectors – what trajectory?
 What transport efficiency measures
 What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise?
 Government and public attitudes
Transport – behaviour change
 Efficiency improvements necessary and welcome,
but major behaviour change essential to reach
reduction targets
 Modest reduction by voluntary action by
individuals and firms
 Wide range of measures to influence modes of
travel, total amount of travel and the use of less
carbon-emitting modes
Transport – behaviour change
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Smarter travel
Public transport improvements
Urban form and land use changes
ICT developments
Fuel taxes
Road pricing
Aviation taxes
Aviation in emission trading scheme
Transport – behaviour change
 Smarter travel – soft measures to influence modal
choice
 Workplace and school travel plans, travel demand
management, individualised marketing
 Car clubs and car sharing
 Making cycling easier and safer
 Necessary to complement harder measures such as
taxation
Transport – behaviour change
 Public transport improvements
 Bus and rail improvements can influence modal
choice – services/network, marketing, ticketing,
realtime information, attractiveness and acceptability
 Investment and planning
 Difficult with deregulated bus regime in GB outside
London
 Bus and rail also need to improve their energy
efficiency
Transport – behaviour change
 Urban form and land-use changes
 Achieving greater concentration and less cardependence in towns and cities
 Will have major impacts over longer period of time
Transport – behaviour change
 ICT developments
 Already ‘working at home’ one or two days a week
significant for many employees, using broadband
connections
 Small businesses in ICT-related sectors increasingly
based at home or very close to home
 More video conferencing
 Limited long term effect – some face-to-face contact
will be necessary for many; loss of water-cooler
community?
Transport – behaviour change
 Road Fuel taxes
 Probably inevitable in the short medium term – easy
to administer. Known effects to deter travel
 Government still smarting from September 2000 fuel
tax ‘revolt’
 Likely that only limited increases will be acceptable
in the short term
Transport – behaviour change
 Road pricing
 Serious consideration by government and some
local authorities; recognise no long term alternative
to combating traffic congestion
 Technology interesting but not an issue – tag and
beacon or GPS
 My view – could have universal road pricing within
15 years – but current public acceptability issues?
 Provides platform for incentivising use of lower
emission vehicles, travel by lower emission modes,
and in circumstances when vehicles emit less CO2
Transport – behaviour change
 Aviation taxes
 Demand for air travel forecast to grow fastest, and
carbon emissions with it
 On grounds of fairness, substantial changes in the
tax regime inevitable
 85% of air travel is ‘tourism’ – holidays, visiting
friends and relatives, and business ‘tourism’ –
conferences, conventions and exhibitions
 Evidence suggests high price elasticity – 10%
increase in fares > 5-15% reduction in travel
 Impacts depend on whether in step with EU or not
Transport – behaviour change
 Aviation emissions trading
 EU-ETS – probably a necessary step to bring
aviation into some form of carbon emissions
rationing and trading
 Where are the starting allowances set?
 Demand for air travel comes from the consumer
market – market responds to price changes
 Effect will depend on tightness of allowances, the
trading price of carbon units and how it works
through into fares
 May not have much impact in short-medium term
VIBAT study
 Two ‘images’ of the UK
 ‘new market economy’ – focus on
technological and efficiency changes
 ‘smart social policy’ – behaviour change plays
a more central role: some reduction in car
trips but length reduced
 Packages of policy measures to
correspond with the scenarios
 Evaluated for reduction impact and
deliverability
VIBAT study
 Conclusions
 The 60% reduction cannot be delivered in the
‘New Market Economy’ scenario
 Could be delivered with ‘Smart Social Policy’
scenario, providing major behaviour change
occurs, and technological innovations
assumed
Issues to address
 How to allocate reductions between
sectors – what trajectory?
 What transport efficiency measures
 What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise?
 Government and public attitudes
Where is the government?
 2000 UK CCP measures
 Company car tax reform
 Graduated VED
 Fuel duty escalator (short lived!)
 Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation > 5% of
UK fuel sales by 2010
Where is the government?
 2006 UK CCP
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Improving vehicle fuel efficiency
Support new vehicle technologies (LowCVP)
Use vehicle taxation > lower carbon
Behaviour change – public transport, travel demand
management
 HoC EAC critical of its lack of ambition and its
low forecasts of impacts
Where is the government?
 More radical measures under discussion, in
media and within government
 Douglas Alexander IPPR speech
 Focus on technical measures to improve vehicle
fuel efficiency – target of 100 g/km
 Something on behaviour change as well
 A hotch potch approach – no framework
illustrating progress towards targets
 Need to be able to evaluate alternative
measures
Public attitudes
 Jillian Anable research (for DfT)
 Link is weak between awareness of climate
change and travel behaviour implications
 Similar to IPPR report on road pricing
 Travel behaviour change more successful if
targeted at community level
 London Mayor to introduce higher congestion
charge (£25?) for high emissions cars (225+)
 LB Richmond similar:onstreet park permits
Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel
behaviour
 Personal carbon allowances and trading
 System of personal carbon allowances for every
adult – in units
 Carbon units are ‘spent’ every time fuel for a vehicle
is purchased, public transport is used and a flight is
purchased - and a household energy bill is paid
 Unused carbon units sold on a simple universal
market (through bank or post office) and those
needing more units buy them
Reducing Carbon Emissions: changing travel
behaviour
 Personal carbon allowances and trading
 Complex to comprehend and accept, though
straightforward to operate through analogues of
today’s cash and card payment systems
 In my view the fairest and most effective way to
incentivise low carbon travel behaviour
 Research at Leeds University suggests more
effective at changing behaviour and much more
acceptable than fuel tax increases
Transport and Climate Change
Facing the Carbon Emissions Challenge
 Setting the Scene
 Transport and carbon emissions - the challenge
 Issues to address




Sectoral reduction targets
Transport efficiency measures
Transport behavioural change
Government and public attitudes?
 Conclusions so far
Conclusions so far
 UK committed to ambitious programme of
carbon emissions reduction
 Government not yet allocated targets > sectors
 Transport energy efficiency improvements
welcome and necessary, but not sufficient
 Transport behaviour change essential element:
smarter travel, taxation for surface and aviation,
will involve major lifestyle changes
 Aviation still the elephant in the room….
 Personal carbon allowances and trading may be
the only ‘fair’ way to reach the ambitious targets
 Role for transport planners?
Transport Planning Society
Transport and Climate Change – facing the
carbon emissions challenge
David Quarmby CBE
25 April 2007
Issues to address
 How to allocate reductions between
sectors – what trajectory?
 What transport efficiency measures
 What transport behaviour change? how to
evaluate and prioritise?
 Government and public attitudes