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Projection of future climate change - The Baltic sea region
HIRHAM Model (Danish Meteorological
Institute regional climate model)
GCM boundary conditions from the Max
Planck Institute for Meteorology in
Hamburg
GCM boundary conditions from a Hadley
Centre global atmospheric model)
RCAO Model (Rossby Centre regional
coupled Atmosphere-Ocean model)
RCM-simulated temperature change in ºC for winter (December, January, February)
between the periods 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 using A2 emissions scenario.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projection on GCMs - The Baltic sea region
As there is a distinct southwest to northeast gradient in the geographical
distribution of average model-simulated temperature change, four subregions were distinguished.
LAND NE
SEA NE
SEA SW
LAND SW
The four sub-regions employed for summarizing the probability intervals of
temperature and precipitation change.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projection on GCMs - The Baltic sea region
WINTER
SUMMER
LAND NE
SEA NE
AUTUMN
SPRING
SEA SW
LAND SW
Seasonal GCM-driven 95% probability intervals of temperature change (vertical
bars) from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 for four sub-regions. A1FI (red), A2 (black), B2 (blue), and B1
(green) scenarios. The dot in the centre of the bar denotes the median of the interval.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projection on GCMs - The Baltic sea region
WINTER
SUMMER
LAND NE
SEA NE
AUTUMN
SPRING
SEA SW
LAND SW
Seasonal GCM-driven 95% probability intervals of precipitation change (vertical
bars) from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 for four sub-regions. A1FI (red), A2 (black), B2 (blue), and B1
(green) scenarios. The dot in the centre of the bar denotes the median of the interval.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projection on RCMs - The Baltic sea region
O - seven RCMs from the
common PRUDENCE
experiment based on the
same GCM (HadAM3H).
LAND NE
SEA NE
SEA SW
LAND SW
X - other regional downscaling
experiments from
PRUDENCE, which included
different driving GCMs,
Changes in winter (December, January, February) area mean temperature and precipitation
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projection on RCMs - The Baltic sea region
O - seven RCMs from the
common PRUDENCE
experiment based on the
same GCM (HadAM3H).
LAND NE
SEA NE
SEA SW
LAND SW
X - other regional downscaling
experiments from
PRUDENCE, which included
different driving GCMs,
Changes in summer (June, July, August) area mean temperature and precipitation
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Key Features of Climate Scenarios for Europe - Weather
Extremes
The scenarios do not explicitly quantify changes in daily
weather extremes.
However, it is very likely that frequencies and intensities of
summer heat waves will increase throughout Europe;
It is likely that intense precipitation events will increase in
frequency, especially in winter,
It is likely that summer drought risk will increase in central and
southern Europe; and possible that gale frequencies will increase.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projected change of extremes for the Baltic Sea region
Maximum temperature
An increase in daily maximum temperature during summer. The
amount of this increase ranges from 3°C up to more than 10°C among
different model simulations for the Baltic Sea basin.
Minimum temperature
Extremely low temperatures during winter are simulated to increase
by 4°C to 12°C by the late 21st century, depending on the model.
Extreme precipitation
Extreme precipitation events generally show an increase in winter,
roughly in proportion to the increase in average precipitation.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projected change of extremes for the Baltic Sea region
Snow cover
In line with the changes in temperature, projections show a future
decrease in mean annual maximum snow depth everywhere over
Northern Europe.
This decrease is smaller in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea basin
than in the southern areas.
In areas such as Denmark, Germany, Poland, and most parts of the
Baltic countries, where the present-climate snow depth is small, the
scenario simulations show a complete vanishing of snow.
The simulations also show a decrease in the duration of the snow season.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Projected change of extremes for the Baltic Sea region
Wind speed
Regional model simulations of wind speed vary considerably
depending on the GCM simulation used for boundary driving
conditions.
There is decrease of mean annual wind speed between −4% to 4% (
up to 8% - depend on model) over the Baltic Sea basin for both A2
and B2 scenarios.
The largest increases in wind speed occur in winter and early
spring, up to 20% for the A2 scenario and 10% for the B2 scenario.
There is an opposite trend in summer, showing a decrease in wind
speed over most of the basin.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Impact of climate change - Europe
Climate changes as characterized by the scenarios, if not adequately responded to
through effective adaptation and policy development, would lead in Europe to:
Altered natural ecosystems, with
loss of some habitats and
potential loss of species
Altered fisheries potential
Increased productivity of
northern commercial forests but
reductions in the south
Changing tourist potential
Positive effects on agriculture in
the north but broadly negative
effects in the south
Upward shift of biotic zones and
snowlines in mountain regions.
Increased property damage
A range of human health
implications
Increased risk of flooding,
erosion, wetland loss, and
degradation in coastal zones
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007
Sources
Used sources and web pages & further reading:
IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001
http://www.ipcc.ch
Climate change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability
Climate change 2001: Mitigation
Climate Change in the Baltic Sea area,
Draft HELCOM Thematic Assessment in 2006
http://helcom.navigo.fi
http://www.baltex-research.eu
Klein-Tank A., Changing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
in Europe’s Climate of the 20th Century
http://eca.knmi.nl
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007