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U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change
Research Program
Changing Climate and Land Use in
the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers
and Consequences in Economics,
Hydrology, Geomorphology, and
Ecology – Initial Remarks
Glenn E. Moglen
University of Maryland
November 12, 2002
What is a Stakeholder?
 A stakeholder is any person, group, or
entity with an active interest in some
element of our study.
 Stakeholders in the room are from:
 Federal, State, and Local Government
 Environmental Conservation
Organizations
 Concerned Citizens
 Academics
What is our purpose today?
 Three Goals:
1. Provide brief overview of our project
and plans.
2. Solicit immediate feedback from
those in the room.
3. Develop a “communications
document” that will describe the way
that we will disseminate information
to you as the project progresses
Introductions….
U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change
Research Program
Changing Climate and Land Use in
the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers
and Consequences in Economics,
Hydrology, Geomorphology, and
Ecology – An Overview
PI: Moglen
Co-PI’s: Palmer, Bockstael, Pizzuto
November 12, 2002 – University of Maryland
Context: Four Projects…
1.
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project: our first
project as a group, focused on predicting and
quantifying impacts of urbanization.
2.
EPA NCEA/GCRP problem formulation report:
preliminary investigation of climate and land use
change effects.
3.
EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing
Climate and Land Use 1: “This Project”, focuses on
model development of interactive effects of
simultaneous land use and climate change.
4.
EPA STAR Proposal Effects of Jointly
Changing Climate and Land Use 2: focuses on
model production, predicting ecological impacts of the
interactive effects of stress from land use and climate
change.
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds
Project: June 2000 - May 2004
PI: Palmer Co-PI’s :Moglen, Bockstael, Pizzuto
Requires expertise from multiple fields
– academic and agency partners
Hydrology
Geomorphology
LU/LC Imagery
MD Office of Planning
MoCo Dept Env Protection
RESAC, NASA
Policy & Planning
State & County Gov’t
Watershed Managers
Stakeholders
Economics
Ecology
Funding
EPA’s Star Program
NCEAS
Mathematical & Computer Modeling
Requires partners from national, state,
local, and private sectors
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds
Project
University of
Maryland
Margaret A. Palmer
Glenn E. Moglen
Nancy E. Bockstael
Hydrology
Economics
Montgomery County
Department of Environmental
Protection
Cameron Wiegand
Keith Van Ness
Dan Harper
Lonnie Darr
Geomorphology
GIS,
Policy &
Planning
Ecology
Colorado State
University
LeRoy Poff
University of
Delaware
Jim Pizzuto
Economics/
Land Use Change
Irrigation
Increase in
impervious
surfaces
Geomorphology
Hydrology
Peak flow
Base flow
Flow variability
Water quality
Sediment regime
Channel form
Light levels
Riparian Vegetation
Suspended sediments
Nutrient regimes
Ecology
Particle size
Channel form
Bed mobility
Cattail
Howard
County


Hawlings

Northwest
Branch
Montgomery
County
EPA STAR Water &
Watersheds Project:
Some Goals
Paint
Branch

Test hypotheses about effects of
new growth control policies
Develop a method to estimate
peak flows at high spatial and
temporal resolution
Develop a numerical model
forecasting effects of land use
changes, including time-varying
changes in channel width, … and
sediment transport
Develop statistical relationships
between land use change and
ecosystem structure and function
EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem
Formulation Report
 PI: Moglen, Co-PI: Palmer
 Duration: January 2001 – July 2002
 Some Goals:
 Investigate how land use and climate
change drivers affect streamflow
distributions in study watersheds
 Forecast ecological effects of
climate change and land use change
using simulations with Aquatox
EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem
Formulation Report – Simulated Flow
EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem
Formulation Report – Ecological
Consequences
Ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate more strongly affected
by land use than future climate
• higher means and higher annual variability
• predictions about climate change depended on the climate
change model assumed.
Oxygen most strongly affected by climate change.
• Oxygen levels decreased under all climate change
Organic matter most strongly affected by land use
• Organic matter inputs decreased due mostly to decreases in
riparian vegetation
EPA NCEA/GCRP – Current Project
(or why you’re here!)
 PI: Moglen
Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Palmer & Nelson, Pizzuto
 Duration: August 2002 – December 2003
 Some Goals: “Model Development”




Develop methods to translate probabilistic economic
predictions into input for other disciplines including
plausible 20-50 year land use change scenarios
Modify continuous flow model to be sensitive to
dynamically changing land use as well as climate inputs
Develop methodology for forecasting sediment delivery to
1st order streams
Develop spatial habitat suitability model for one species
EPA STAR Proposal
 PI: Palmer
Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Moglen, Nelson, Pizzuto, Tuchman
 Duration: Sept. 2003 – Sept. 2006
 Some Goals: “Model Production”




Generate land use change forecasts taking account of likely
policy responses to climate change and sea level rise
Use hydrologic models to describe future flow regimes under
varying land use and climate change scenarios
Use calibrated models … to provide parameters needed to
forecast the influence of climate and land use change on
ecological services
Parameterize and test models using two multifactorial
experiments with temperature, flow, UV, N:P and CO2 as
factors.