Download Slide 1

Climate Science in the Public Interest
Climate Impacts on Salmon
Recovery in the
Snohomish River Basin
James Battin
Krista Bartz
Mary Ruckelshaus
Hiroo Imaki
Matthew Wiley
Elizabeth Korb
Richard Palmer
NOAA
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
University of Washington
Civil & Environmental Engineering
Background

1999: Seven salmon
Ecologically Sensitive Units
(ESUs) are listed as
“threatened” under the
federal Endangered
Species Act (ESA).

1998 -1999 Washington
legislature passed the
Salmon Recovery Act
created watershed planning
process to identify recovery
actions

2000: The National Marine
Fisheries Service (NMFS)
convened the Puget Sound
Technical Recovery Team
(TRT) to develop delisting
criteria and provide
technical guidance for
recovery planning
Local Evidence of Climate Change

Declining
snowpack

Shifts in timing of
runoff

Declining trend on
overall runoff
volume
Evidence of Climate Change
Seasonal trends – by station
Trends
Trends in
in total
average
seasonal
daily temperature
precipitation (1949-2002)
(1949-2002)
5000
4500
0.3
40.0
0.2
20.0
3500
3000
0.1
0.0
2500
-20.0
0.0
2000
Winter
-0.1
-40.0
1500
Spring
-0.2
-60.0
Summer
1000
Autumn
500
Paradise
Stampede
Longmire
Cedar
MudMt
Palmer
Buckley
McMillin
McMillin
Darrington
Darrington
Landsburg
Landsburg
Snoqualmie
Snoqualmie
SeaTac
SeaTac
Startup
Startup
Monroe
Monroe
0
Everett
Everett
-0.3
-80.0
station elevation (m)
4000
Kent
Kent
RateRate
of change
in degrees(C)
decade
of change
in mm perper
decade
0.4
60.0
Predicted
Atmospheric
CO2
Land Cover &
Land Form
Data
Habitat
Capacity
Climate Model
(GFDL, Hadley)
air temperature & precipitation
Hydrology Model
(DHSVM)
stream flow & stream temperature
Salmon Pop. Model
(SHIRAZ)
Salmon Abundance
2025
2050
2025
2050
Results

Winter stream
flows increase

Summer stream
flows decrease

Stream
temperatures
rise
2025
2050
No Change in Land Use
Results

Winter stream
flows increase

Summer
stream flows
decrease

Stream
temperatures
rise
2025
2050
No Change in Land Use
Results

Winter stream
flows increase

Summer stream
flows decrease

Stream
temperatures
rise
2025
2050
No Change in Land Use
Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon
Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon
Conclusions

The projected climate change scenarios have a
profoundly negative impact on Snohomish basin
Chinook salmon populations.

Restoration efforts can offset some of these
impacts
Conclusions
Wild Spawners
Totals using GFDL based
Climate information
No Restoration
Restoration
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2025
No Restoration
Restoration
Wild Spawners
10000
Totals using HadCM3
based Climate information
2050
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2025
2050
Caveats

GFDL is a more extreme climate scenario. Both
models are on the warmer side of the newest
IPCC projections.

Timing of climate change is uncertain.

Salmon harvest, hatchery operations, and ocean
conditions were all held constant.
Climate Science in the Public Interest
Climate Impacts on
Salmon Recovery in the
Snohomish River Basin
James Battin
Krista Bartz
Mary Ruckelshaus
Hiroo Imaki
Matthew Wiley
Elizabeth Korb
Richard Palmer
NOAA
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
University of Washington
Civil & Environmental Engineering