Download Slide 1

Double Edged Sovereignty:
The Politics and Diplomacy
of Climate Change
William Antholis
Managing Director and Senior Fellow, Brookings
Director, Brookings Mountain West
Awareness: High
Understanding Global Warming
90
80
80
70
60
53
50
40
30
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Not Really Worried
Problem v. Action
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
73
20
38
10
0
Warming is a Serious
Problem
Want Immediate Action
States with Climate Change Action Plans
Democrats Lead – Pro and Con
Republicans who might cross the aisle
Beyond Partisanship – National Security
2006 Solar Panel Production
2006 Wind Turbine Production
Beyond Partisanship – Competitiveness
Kyoto
STRUCTURE
• Negotiate then ratify
• Rich – Poor
• All 192
PLAYERS
• EU: leadership & luck
• U.S.: bounded leadership
• Developing countries on hold
Europe: Leadership and Luck
Kyoto
 Copenhagen
STRUCTURE
• Negotiate then ratify
• Rich – Poor
• All 192
• Legislate then Negotiate
• Industrial-Emerging-Poor
• UN + Major Economies Forum
PLAYERS
• EU: leadership & luck
• U.S.: bounded leadership
• Developing countries on hold
• EU: experience
• US: cautious leadership
• China: global brand moment
• India: between past and future
• Brazil/Indonesia: fore$t$
Copenhagen Issues
• Mitigation Equity
•> Targets/Timetables
•> Reporting and Review
• Enforcement
• Forests
• Adaptation
• Financing
• Tech transfer
Mitigation Equity: Which standard?
Emissions
(CO2 MMT)
China
6.1
U.S.
5.7
EU
3.9
Russia
1.5
India
1.5
Japan
1.3
Brazil
0.3
Mitigation Equity: Which standard?
Emissions
(CO2 MMT)
CO2 Tons
per capita
China
6.1
4.5
U.S.
5.7
18.6
EU
3.9
7.8
Russia
1.5
11.0
India
1.5
1.2
Japan
1.3
10.1
Brazil
0.3
1.8
Mitigation Equity: Which standard?
Emissions
(CO2 MMT)
CO2 Tons
per capita
GDP
per capita
China
6.1
4.5
$
3,300
U.S.
5.7
18.6
46,900
EU
3.9
7.8
33,700
Russia
1.5
11.0
11,900
India
1.5
1.2
1,100
Japan
1.3
10.1
38,700
Brazil
0.3
1.8
8,000
Mitigation Equity: Which standard?
Emissions
(CO2 MMT)
CO2 Tons
per capita
China
6.1
4.5
U.S.
5.7
EU
GDP
per capita
$
Energy
intensity
3,300
1.36
18.6
46,900
0.40
3.9
7.8
33,700
0.23
Russia
1.5
11.0
11,900
0.92
India
1.5
1.2
1,100
1.09
Japan
1.3
10.1
38,700
0.26
Brazil
0.3
1.8
8,000
0.23
Emerging Power
12
10
CO2 MMT
8
6
4
India
2
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
China
Enforcement: The ties that bind?
Domestic
law
China
NO
U.S.
NO
EU
YES*
Russia
NO
India
NO
Japan
YES
Brazil
NO
Enforcement: The ties that bind?
Domestic
law
Sovereignty
China
NO
HAWK
U.S.
NO
HAWK
EU
YES*
DOVE
Russia
NO
HAWK
India
NO
HAWK
Japan
YES
DOVE
Brazil
NO
HAWK
Enforcement: The ties that bind?
Domestic
law
Sovereignty
Binding
Kyoto target
China
NO
HAWK
NO
U.S.
NO
HAWK
NO
EU
YES*
DOVE
YES
Russia
NO
HAWK
YES*
India
NO
HAWK
NO
Japan
YES
DOVE
YES
Brazil
NO
HAWK
NO
Enforcement: The ties that bind?
Domestic
law
Sovereignty
Binding
Kyoto target
Binding
Copenhagen
target
China
NO
HAWK
NO
NO
U.S.
NO
HAWK
NO
MAYBE
EU
YES*
DOVE
YES
YES
Russia
NO
HAWK
YES*
YES*
India
NO
HAWK
NO
NO
Japan
YES
DOVE
YES
YES
Brazil
NO
HAWK
NO
MAYBE