Download Climate Change Assessment

Global Circulation Models
Projections of
Under
Meteorology
Climate Change
Hydrology Models of
Basin
Projections of
Under
Streamflow
Climate Change
Simulation and
Optimization Models
Impacts of Climate Change on
all Watershed Objectives!
• Global Circulation
Models (GCMs)
provide predictions of
climate (precipitation
and temperature) for
the future
• Different CO2
emission scenarios
are generated by
these models to
Model Source
account for possible Canadian Climate Model
Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model
future scenarios
Model Name
CCCMA_CGCM3
GISS_Model_e
Meteorological Research Institute Model
MRI_CGCM2_3_2a
National Center for Atmospheric Research
CCSM3
National Center for Atmospheric Research
PCM1
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
CCCMA A2
CCCMA B1
GISS A2
GISS B1
MRI A2
MRI B1
CCSM A2
CCSM B1
PCM A2
PCM B1
0.0
Change in Annual Preciptiation (mm/day)
0.6
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation
and Temperature Between GCM Historic and 2050s
0
1
2
3
Change in Annual Temperature (degrees C)
4
73°0'0"W
72°0'0"W
45°0'0"N
45°0'0"N
44°0'0"N
44°0'0"N
43°0'0"N
43°0'0"N
42°0'0"N
42°0'0"N
72°0'0"W
10
HadCM3 Cell (47.5, -120.0)
Regional Cell (47.5625,-121.8125)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Non-Exceedance Probablility
71°0'0"W
January Average Temperature (C)
January Average Temperature (C)
73°0'0"W
8
71°0'0"W
1
1.2
10
Regional Cell (47.5625,-121.8125)
Snoqualmie
Amherst Falls
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Non-Exceedance Probablility
1
1.2
•
•
•
Build a hydrology
model of the
Connecticut River
watershed
Force this model with
climate impacted
meteorology
Generate climatechange impacted
streamflow
•
•
Identify climate
impacted
streamflows at index
gages for SYE
Use SYE
methodology to
generate climate
impacted streamflow
timeseries at inflow
points throughout
Connecticut Basin