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The Global Climate Change Forum
An Economic and Business Perspective
Global Energy Services
Can You Weather the Storm?
Global climate change is one
of the major issues of our time

Understand the Impact on your
Supply Chain

Understand the Impact on your
Customers

Influence the Public Policy Debate
and Anticipate Regulatory Changes

Position Your Company or Enterprise

Identify Opportunities and Avoid Risks
An Economics and Business Perspective
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.
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The Global Climate Change Forum
A new service designed to provide the
most complete view of the economic
and political factors shaping the
Global Climate Change debate
• Quarterly Reports and Issue Summaries
• Interactive Workshops & Meetings
• In-depth Sector Studies
• Covering Autos, Metals, Utilities, etc.
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Global Climate Change Will Affect Everyone
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The Automobile Industry

Future design of vehicle drive trains

Role and potential for hybrids

Role and potential for hydrogen and
fuel cells

Impacts of C02 and other GHG
emission controls

Impacts on OEMs and component
providers

Economic impacts on other industries
and the overall economy
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The Metals Sector

Mitigation options and costs on
metals extraction and production
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Mitigation options and costs on
electricity and energy supply

Long-term technology changes
in metals production
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Substitution of other materials
(e.g. plastics, etc.)

Economic impacts on other
industries and the economy
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The Electric Utility Sector

Implications for fuel choice (oil, natural
gas, coal, nuclear, renewables)

Role of new technologies for reducing
GHG emission

Application, costs, and effectiveness of
clean coal technologies

Application, costs, and effectiveness of
carbon captures and sequestration

Economic impacts on other industries
and the economy
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The Correlation Between Emissions and
Concentrations is Clear …
380
7000
370
6000
360
4000
330
3000
320
2000
310
1000
Hawaii
Antarctic Ice Cores
2000
1994
1988
1982
1976
1970
1964
1952
1958
1946
1940
1934
1928
1922
1916
1910
1898
1904
1892
290
1886
300
1880
ppm
340
mtonnes
5000
350
0
Carbon Emissions
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… But Causation Remains Controversial
The link between atmospheric concentrations
and climate change is still controversial
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
-0.5
1400
Relative Temperature
0.2
Time
Mann et al
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McIntyre & McKitrick
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CO2 Is Not the Only Problem
Methane and Soot Are Major “Forcing” Pollutants As Well
Source: Dr. James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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The Problem is Not Intractable
Viable Options for Reducing Carbon Emissions
Based on: S. Pacala and R. Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate
Problem, with Technologies Available Today,” Science, 305, August, 2004, pp 968-972
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Examples of Mitigation Options by Sector
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Transition Targets Must be Established…

A declining schedule of carbon
dioxide emissions

An increasing Carbon Dioxide tax

An increasing schedule of auto
efficiency standards

An increasing schedule of appliance
and building efficiency standards
Initial inaction will prevent the
attainment of longer term goals
at reasonable costs
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Cost Effectiveness Curves Over Time
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
$/ton
Significant reductions can be achieved in the long run at reasonable costs, but not
in the short run. Steps must be taken now to achieve these long-term reductions.
Percent Reduction
10 years
20 years
30 Years
40 Years
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50 Years
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The Global Climate Change Forum

Executive Summaries and Assessments

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



Quarterly Executive-Style Reports
Signpost Updates and Issue Alerts
Annual Forum Meeting with Special
Guest Speakers
Web-based Discussions
Economic, Policy, and Political Focus
In-depth Sector Analyses

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


Topics Prioritized by Group
Technical and Economic Analysis
Cost-Effectiveness Curves
Industry and Macroeconomic Analysis
Interactive Workshops
Four Sectors per Year
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In-Depth Special Sector Coverage

Automobile & Truck Transportation

Airline Industry

Metals and Mining

Electricity Utilities

Energy: Oil and Gas

Energy: Nuclear Power

Agriculture

Abatement Options

Forecast Products and Paper

Consumer Goods

Global Construction
*Topics will be prioritized by Forum participants
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The Project Team
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Drawing from Years of Experience
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Global Insight’s Distinctive Competence
Much excellent work has already been done.
HOWEVER – Collectively this work has not
focused adequately on the economics.
THE
ADVANTAGE
• The microeconomic costs and effects of
each mitigation option
• The macroeconomic effects of policy
alternatives
• Industry expertise in:
Energy Construction
Chemicals
Autos
Manufacturing IT
Steel
Transportation and others…
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We Practically Invented the Industry
Consistently Named Among the Top Economic Forecasters in the World
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Expertise Built Upon a Solid Foundation
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For Additional Information …
Gil Rodgers, Senior Director
Global Insight, Lexington, MA
+1-781-301-9142
[email protected]
Peter Seager, Principal
Global Insight, London
+44 20 8544 7924
[email protected]
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