Download IGES 10th anniversary

Asian Role in
Global Climate Policy
Professor Akio Morishima
Chair, Japan Climate Policy Centre
Special Research Advisor for IGES
18 October 2008
World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008
Aalankrita Resort and Conference Center, Hyderabad, India
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Prof. Akio Morishima
Asia and the Pacific Today
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Diverse and Rapidly Changing
Dynamics and Vulnerability
Asia and Climate Policy
Asia and the Pacific
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Population: 4 billion people,
60 % of World Population
Land mass:
24% of the world land mass
Forest area:
14% of the world forest area
GDP growth rate since the 80s:
remained over 6%
(while the annual world GDP growth
rates fluctuated between 2-3%)
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3000
10
2500
8
2000
6
1500
4
1000
2
500
0
0
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
05
00
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
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Gross Domestic Product ($ trillions, yr. 2000)
GDP per Capita ($US, yr. 2000) Source: East-West Center
GDP per Capita ($US)
GDP ($ trillions)
Rapid Economic Growth (1)
Rapid Economic Growth (2)
•The Annual GDP growth rate in the region least 20
years is over 6%
•But economic growth rate is uneven among
countries.
•Income inequality has increased not only among
countries but also within a country.
•800 million people who live on less than one dollar
a day still live in this region.
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Source: East-West Center
Economic Development Estimates
GDP outlook
70,000
Billion 2000 USD (in market exchange rates)
60,000
50,000
other Asia (total) (+Australia/NZ)
Brazil
India
China
Japan
OECD Europe
United States
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1990
2003
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
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Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Demographic Expansion (1)
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"Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)
Demographic Expansion (2)
•Urbanization
•9 out of 23 mega cities with over 10 million inhabitants
in the world exist in the region.
•Hundreds of large cities with millions inhabitants scatter
all over the region.
•Most of the large cities do not have infrastructure to
provide residents with minimum social and sanitary
services.
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•These large cities face urban environmental problems
"Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)
Growing Energy Demand (1)
Primary Energy Consumption
600.0
500.0
Quadrillion Btu
400.0
other Asia (total) (+Australia/NZ)
Brazil
India
China
Japan
OECD Europe
United States
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
1990
9
2003
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Growing Energy Demand (2)
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The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)
Increasing CO2 emissions (1)
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The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)
Increasing CO2 emissions(2)
CO2 emissions
35,000
Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide
30,000
25,000
other Asia (total) (+Australia/NZ)
Brazil
India
China
Japan
OECD Europe
United States
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
2003
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
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Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Increasing CO2 emissions (3)
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European Communities (2003)
Increasing CO2 Emission (4)
26.2Gt-CO2; 2004
40.5Gt-CO2; 2030
India
1.1
Gt
8.2Gt
3.3Gt
1.2Gt
1.3Gt
3.9Gt
12.7Gt
4.3Gt
Japan
EU
China
4.6Gt
5.9Gt
10.2Gt
7.3Gt
USA
Other
s
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Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (International Energy Agency)
Estimated Key Impacts in Asia by Global Warming
Category
15
Key Impacts
Agriculture
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30% decline of crop production by 2050,
resulting in a higher rate of starvation in south Asia
Water
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Health
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Costal/
Marine/
Ecology
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Disappearance of glacier in the Tibetan Plateau by 4 km
due to the increase of air temperature by 3 degrees.
 Yearly water supply of India will decrease from 1820m3 to
1140m3 by 2050, affecting 1 hundred million people of India.
Increase in rates of outbreak of Cholera in south Asia
and of diarrhea across Asia.
Disappearance of 2500 km2 of Mangrove forests
due to 1 meter Sea-level rise
 Higher risk of floods in 5000 km2 watershed of Red River
Delta and 15-20,000 km2 watershed of Mekong River
 Disappearance of Coral reef by 30% in Asia in next 30
years
Source: IPCC, 2007
GHG mitigation potentials in 2020
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“Second IGES White Paper Climate Change Policies in the Asia-Pacific:
Re-uniting Climate Change and Sustainable Development " IGES(2008)
END
Thank you for your attention.
Professor Akio Morishima
Chair, Japan Climate Policy Centre
Special Research Advisor for IGES
[email protected]
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