Download Hot, Flat & Dangerous

What does it mean and what can I do about it?
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Chester Co. Citizens for Climate Protection
Local citizens concerned about climate
Formed 2007
Non-profit (501-c-3) status
Influential in forming County’s GHG Task Force
www.chescocooler.org
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To educate Chester County citizens on the severity
and serious consequences of climate change…
…and by spearheading climate change initiatives
in order to achieve our goal of achieving an 80%
reduction in GHG’s by the year 2050
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What is Climate Change ?
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Why should you be concerned ?
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What can you do?
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• Rising CO2 means rising global temperatures
• Projected to rise by 3-7⁰F by 2100
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 100,000 yrs of Ice, 20,000 yrs of Warmth
o Currently in a warm period (prior 18,000 yrs)
Climate ‘Drivers’
o Earth’s elliptical orbit
o Earth’s natural ‘tilt’ and ‘wobble’
o Others: Volcanoes, comets, solar activity, ocean
circulation, methane
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• Earth warming faster than natural cycles
 Highest levels in >400,000 yrs
 10 hottest in last 15 yrs; 20 in last 25
 CO2 is an ‘accelerator’
• Is there a chain reaction?
• Heat retained by GHG’s raises global temp’s
• Ocean’s then release CO2, accelerating warming
• What’s the big deal?
 9⁰ F decrease delivered an Ice Age
 What will happen with a 3-7⁰F increase?
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Why should you be
concerned?
Let’s examine current &
projected impacts…
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#1 Reduced Polar Ice Cover
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Arctic/Greenland/Antarctica
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Less light and energy reflected
This means a “Positive Feedback Loop” may
be created where more absorbed sunlight
means more temp rise
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1980
Annual Sea Ice
Minimum
NASA
2007
Annual Sea Ice
Minimum
NASA
#2 Shrinking Mountain Glaciers
 Confirmed rapid and sustained retreat
 Reduced drinking supplies
 Constraints on agriculture
This means less water for millions of people
…. in Western USA, South America, Africa and Asia
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Threat to crops & Drinking water
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#3 Ocean Surface is Warming
This means bigger hurricanes & cyclones
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#4 More Acidic Oceans from Dissolved CO2
This may disrupt the ocean’s food chain
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#1 Sea Level Rise
◦ Why?
 Warmer H2O expands
 Melting Ice (Greenland = 21’, Antarctica ++?)
◦ Consequences?
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~ 600 million people displaced
Mass migrations likely; To USA?
$ billions spent protecting cities
New insurance company policies
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1 meter sea level rise
Chesapeake wetlands lost
Delaware Bay wetlands lost
Outer Banks inundated
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#2 Chaotic Water Availability
 Increases and decreases
 Diminished rainfall (Australia, western US)
 Diminished glacier runoff (Asia, Africa, S. America)
#3 Frequency/Severity of Extreme Storms
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Dramatic increase in extreme hot days
◦ Philadelphia projected ~30 days above 100° by 2070
◦ Vulnerable populations at risk
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Changes in fish, wildlife & plant life
◦ Ranges moving north; Numbers declining
◦ Yields of apples, sweet corn, grapes likely to decrease
◦ Hardwood trees decline –black cherry, beech, sugar maple
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Emerging public health threats
◦ Increasing infectious disease (West Nile virus, Deng fever)
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Definition: “The levels at which the momentum for
change becomes unstoppable”
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Why an issue?
◦ Melting permafrost releases methane, 21x>CO2
◦ Snow & ice melts = less reflection = raising ocean temp’s
◦ Ocean absorbs more CO2, raising acidity, harming food chain
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What’s the concern?
◦ Rising CO2 could mean that no matter what we do, the
climate gets hotter & hotter
◦ You, your children & grandchildren will be impacted
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Tipping Points
Permafrost Thawing
Vladamir E. Romanovsky in ACIA 2004
Lizette Kabré/University Of Copenhagen
“The latest estimate of the
amount of carbon in
permafrost is 1.7 trillion
tons, more than twice the
2007 [IPCC] estimate.” –
Chris Field at Copenhagen
Conference 2009
Tipping Points
Amazon Dieback
UK Met Office
Modelers from the U.K.’s Met Office
presented new data showing that even a
global cessation of greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 could lead to a loss of
up to 40% of the Amazon rainforest –
Copenhagen Conference 2009
Lizette Kabré/University Of Copenhagen
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Climate Scientists
◦ >1,000’s worldwide
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Scientific Institutions
◦ National Academy’s of Science
 Brazil, Canada, China, France,
Germany, India, Italy, Japan,
Russia, UK, USA
Organizations
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Audubon
Girl Scouts of America
PennFuture
Pew
League of Women’s Voters
National Wildlife Association
Nature Conservatory
Sierra Club
World Resource Institute
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Amer. Meterological Society
Amer. Ass’n Advancem’t Sci.
Amer. Geophysical Union
Amer. Medical Association
Amer. Acad. of Family Practice
Amer. Public Health Assoc.
Union of Concerned Scientists
IPCC
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Jun ‘08: “Economists now join climate scientists in a unified
call for action to address the causes of climate change”
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The strength of the science on climate change compelled
the signers to warn of “sea level rise, heat waves,
droughts, wildfires, snowmelt, floods and disease, as well
as increased plant and animal species extinction”
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“The fact that so many scientists and economists have
spoken out and signed this letter should give policymakers
the confidence that we can avert serious adverse climate
impacts”
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Read “Hot, Flat & Crowded”- Thomas Friedman
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National Academies of Science
http://dels.nas.edu/climateshange/
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PEW Center- http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warmingbasics
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Real climate
http://www.realclimate.org/
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 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch/
 Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research
http://www.rivm.nl/en/milieu/
 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
http://www.iiasa.ac.at
 International Energy Agency, Greenhouse Gas
Programme
http://www.ieagreen.org.uk
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 United States Department of Energy
http://www.energy.gov/
 United States Department of State
http://www.state.gov/g/oes/climate
 United States Environmental Protection Agency
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/
 United States Environmental Protection Agency: U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Inventory Reports
http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
 United States National Assessment
http://www.gcrio.org/NationalAssessment/
 The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
http://www.usgcrp.gov
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Or What Can You Do as an Individual
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The Goal: Rapidly reduce fossil fuel use
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at Home…
 at Work…
 with my Elected Officials…
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Before We Begin, A Reality Check….
 Fossil fuels dependency
 Dependency is large & deep-seated
 Shifting will take time & commitment
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Consumption in US Buildings…
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40% of energy use
70% of electrical use
38% of CO2
“Saving Energy Starts at Home”
(March ‘09 cover of National Geographic)
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CO2 Emissions/Yr
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Oil furnace
14,400
Avg. Car
11,903
Gas furnace
7,000
Electric heat pump
5,249
Central AC
4,070
Electric H2O heater 3,590
Gas H2O heater
2,170
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Electric dryer
Freezer
Refrigerator
Dishwasher
TV
Desktop PC
Cable Box
Microwave
Laptop
1,521
1,400
1,191
600
548
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179
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Residential
fuels
Electricity
Ag
50% coal
Industry
Vehicles
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First, Consider 2 Powerful Concepts
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Conservation (avoiding energy use when practical)
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Efficiency (stretching your energy $’s)
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Conserve (avoiding energy use when practical)
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Drive less - consolidate trips
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Turn down thermostat in winter/up in summer
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Buy “green power”
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Turn off unused lights & power strips
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Turn down H20 heater to 120°
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Conserve (avoiding energy use when practical)
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Take mass transit when possible
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Wash clothes in cold water; Air dry
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Decline plastic bags & use reusable totes
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Install programmable thermostat
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Eat less meat; Drink less bottled water
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Become More Efficient (stretching energy $’s)
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Conduct an energy audit & act
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Switch to CFL or LED’s
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Buy Energy Star appliances
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Drive ‘Smarter’
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Upgrade heating/cooling systems
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Become More Efficient (Stretching energy $’s)
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Use power strips for ‘energy hogs’
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Seal fireplace damper; Avoid use in winter
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Consider a fireplace insert (wood or pellet)
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Consider a hybrid (or plug-in) electric car
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Install ceiling fans to re-circulate warm air
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Things You Can Consider…
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Is there is an Energy Committee? Join! If not, promote idea!
Conduct audit & set company goals (DOE free audits)
Things for Committee to consider:
Encourage CFL/LED lighting/motion sensors where possible
Promote energy efficient equipment
Green Buildings (retrofit older & plan new ones)
Encourage Smart Transport (hybrid fleet, car pools)
Buying Green Power (source from wind)
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Township
County
State
Federal
Communicate Your Position with Elected Officials
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Write/Email
Call
Sign Petitions
Send Letter to Editor
See 4CP handouts to help you formulate a position
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4 Key “Talking Points”
Efficiency & Conservation
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Buildings: LEED certification
Lighting/SmartGrid: CFL/LED’s; Smart Meters
Appliances: Upgrades in efficiency (ie, EnergyStar)
Industry: Efficiency; GHG baseline & set goals; Conduct Audit
Transportation: Mass transit; Fuel efficiency
Grow Renewables
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Wind/Solar/Geothermal
Phase out coal
Nuclear?
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4 Key Talking Points
Put a Price on Carbon
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Mitigates risk; Ensures renewable investment
Raises price; Accelerates weaning from fossil fuels
Shifting utility reimbursement from consumption to conservation
Urgency
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Scientific consensus is clear
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Must act now to avoid major costs later
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Summary
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Overwhelming evidence
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Consequences are serious
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Our children/grandchildren call for immediate action
It starts with You!
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