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Transcript
Adaptation to CC in African
Forests
UNDP Accra
Forest Model
Emission Scenario
Climate Outcome
Ecosystem Model
Timber Response
Carbon Response
Economic Outcome
Ecosystem Model
• Predicts boundaries of biomes (grassland,
forest, savannah, desert)
• Predicts fire
• Predicts NPP
• Predicts carbon storage
• Predicts how all of the above factors shift
with climate change scenario
Timber Model
Volume
Age
Shape of Volume Function
• Almost all life forms are S shaped
• Implies percentage growth rate falls over
time (with age)
• Average growth rises over time to
maximum and then falls
Percentage growth
% Growth
Interest rate
Age
Economic Model of Timber
• Maximize present value of timber, W
• W=P*V(A,T)exp(-r*A)-C/(1-exp(-rA))
• Optimal age A, maximizes W, and
depends on temperature, T, and C is cost
of plantation
Climate Change Effects
• Climate change will move boundaries of
forest (suitable land)
• Climate change will alter NPP- growth of
trees
• Climate change will alter fire frequency
Adaptation
• Harvest trees early if vulnerable to
increased chance of fire or if slow growth
• Plant new tree species if will do better
during lifetime of tree
• Plant only in land suitable for trees (adapt
to changing boundaries of biome)
• More (less) intensity (fertilizer other inputs)
if more (less) productive
Suppose CC Reduces Growth
Original
% Growth
New
Interest rate
Age
Including Carbon Storage
• Carbon is captured in body and roots of
tree
• Trees take carbon out of atmosphere
• Trees help mitigate greenhouse gas
problem
• Carbon is proportional to volume
Impact of including carbon
• If farmers are given an incentive to store
carbon, they will include this incentive into
their harvest and planting decision
• Carbon payments make forests more
profitable (expand forest area) and make
longer rotation ages more profitable
Examine case study
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Loblolly pine
Examine timber alone
Add carbon benefit
Introduce CC on timber
Introduce CC on timber plus carbon
Assume P=$.15/bdft, C=100, R=.04
Assume carbon price=$5/ton/yr