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Methods for evaluating freshwater
ecosystem services
in support of decision making
David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG)
Other Collaborators:
David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento California
Hector Galbraith, University of Colorado, Boulder
Annette Huber-Lee, SEI/Tellus, MIT Boston
Others.. (University of California Davis and Stanford University)
Physical Hydrology
Watershed
Management
Climate &
Climate Change
Decisions:
•Sykes Reservoir
•FERC Relicensing
•Conjunctive Use
•System Operations
Integrated
Decision
Support
credibility
relevancy
Socio-Economics
legitimacy
Ecosystem
Services
Decision-Makers
•CALFED
•State Assembly
•California Water Dept
•Others
Integrating framework placed in the context
of a “Trade-off” landscape
Water for nature
Water for agriculture
Water quantity
Water quality
Seasonality of flow
Regulation
Water for recreation
Domestic water
Water for industry
Physical Hydrology and Water
Management
Seamlessly integrating
watershed hydrologic
processes with water
resources management.
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem Service
Evaluation
H2O
Quantity
Quality
Seasonality
Governance
Ecosystem
•components
•processes
Goods and
Services
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem Service
Evaluation
H2O
Quantity
Quality
Seasonality
Governance
Seasonal flooding
1st Order Decay
Channelization
Ecosystem
•components
•processes
Wetland – water flow
slowed by:
•Low gradient
•Hydrophilic soils
•Channel morphology
•Plant roots and leaves
•Land use planning
Goods and
Services
Flood/Drought
Biodiversity/Rec
Water purification
Ecosystem services in the SFBW
Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use
Harvest.
biota
Water
for ag.,
urban,
indust.
Recreation,
aesth.
beauty
Trans
-port
Upper
Rivers
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Lower
Rivers
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Delta
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Bay
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Power
gener.
Regen.
of soil
fertility
Nutr.
cycling
Flood/
drought
mitig.
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Water
purification
Erosion
control
Habitat
/
biodiversity
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Climate and climate change
Bayesian model gives
regional distributions of
seasonal changes
But what is needed are
high resolution time series
for the entire watershed
WNA
The Inter-Disciplinary Framework
S
t
a
k
e
h
ol
d
e
r
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
Ecosystem Service
Prioritization and
Selection
Scenario
Development:
Climate, Land, Pop
Ecosystem Service
Assessment Properties
(ESAPs)
Ecosystem Service
Indicators/Params
(ESIPs)
Water Resources
Modeling
ESIP/model estimate
variance
Translation Functions
(Models)
Change in Eco
Service
A
D
A
P
T
A
T
I
O
N
Stylized schematic of Sacramento
(garnering credibility)
McCloud
N. Pit
Clear
Shasta
Trinity
Pit
Whiskey
town
Pit Virt
Res
Cow
CottonWood
Battle
Almanor
Thomes
Butte
Sutter Bypass
Colusa
Clear
Chico
Tehema
Black
Butte
Upper Pit
Upper
Feather
Feather
Oroville Bullards
Bar
Yuba
Bear
Cache
Coon
Putah
Sacramento
Weir
Folsom
Lower American
Groundwater
Sacramento River
Yolo Bypass
Delta
Upper American
Irrigated Agriculture
Rivers and Tributaries
Inter-Basin Transfer
Reservoir
San Joaquin
Inflows
M&I Water
Demand
Instream Flow Requirement
Sacramento River Basin:
• 50+ watersheds
• Reservoirs
• Central Valley Groundwater
• Canals and Diversions
Demands:
• Ag. & Urban Atm.
• Municipal and Industrial
• Reserves, Instream
• Regional Diversions
WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed
WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed
Calibration and Validation
Model Evaluation (1961-1999):
1. Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries
2. Reservoir Storage and Release
3. Trinity Diversion
4. Agricultural Water Demand
5. Groundwater Storage Trends
6. Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation
7. Sacramento River Water Temperature
Streamflow reproduction for select watershed
Reservoir Storage Reproduction
FOLSOM Reservoir
Old Operating Rule
1.E+06
1.E+06
8.E+05
6.E+05
Obs
Model
88 Rule Rev
4.E+05
2.E+05
Oct-98
Oct-96
Oct-94
Oct-92
Oct-90
Oct-88
Oct-86
Oct-84
Oct-82
Oct-80
Oct-78
Oct-76
Oct-74
Oct-72
Oct-70
Oct-68
Oct-66
Oct-64
Oct-62
Oct-60
Oct-58
Oct-56
0.E+00
New Operating Rule
Presently, difficult to determine densities of
hydrologic variables
Probabilities of
Climate Change
“Joint” scenarios
Probabilities of change
in
Hydrological Variables
flow
Decisions on
Adaptation Planning
(e.g. new storage infrastructure)
Presently, difficult to determine densities of
hydrologic variables
Probabilities of
Climate Change
P
T
Probabilities of change
in
Hydrological Variables
flow
?
Decisions on
Adaptation Planning
(e.g. new storage infrastructure)
Western North America Climate Scenarios
What is the joint probability?
CSIRO and CCC heavily weighted in determining the winter distributions
Western North America Climate Scenarios
But not consistentThese same models are given less weight for the summer distributions
A stage along the way to getting at probabilities…
Stylized Scenarios using K-nn
WmDry
WmDryT2
WtWnt
WtWntT2
WtWntT4
VWtWntr
VWtWntrT3
(Yates et al. 2002)
Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)
35
Stylized Sacramento Climate Scenarios
30
Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)
hist
WrmDry (+1.9C)
WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)
WtWnt (+0.9C)
WtWntT2 (+3.2C)
WtWntT4 (+5.2C)
VWtrWnt (+3.2)
VWtWntT3 (+6.2)
35
25
30
20
25
C
20
15
15
10
10
5
0
5
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Precip. (55 Stn., ~40 yrs)
300
0
Nov
Dec
250
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
200
mm
Oct
150
100
50
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
McCloud
N. Pit
River Flow
Clear
Shasta
Trinity
Pit
Whiskey
town
Pit Virt
Res
Assumed No Irrigation or Storage
Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)
Upper Pit
35
Cow
CottonWood
Chico
25
Butte
Feather
6
20
C
Sutter Bypass
Colusa
Upper
Feather
Oroville Bullards
Bar
Yuba
15
10
Bear
Cache
Upper American
Oct
Sacramento
Weir
Sacramento River
3
Nov
Dec
Jan
0
Lower American
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Irrigation w/ all Available Storage
Avg. Monthly River Flows below Yolo and Sacramento
8
7
San Joaquin
Inflows
6
acre-feet x 1E6
Yolo Bypass
Delta
Folsom
4
1
0
Putah
5
2
5
Coon
hist
WrmDry (+1.9C)
WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)
WtWnt (+0.9C)
WtWntT2 (+3.2C)
WtWntT4 (+5.2C)
VWtrWnt (+3.2)
VWtWntT3 (+6.2)
7
acre-feet x 1e6
Tehema
Clear
8
Almanor
Thomes
Black
Butte
Avg. Monthly River flows below Yolo and Sacramento
30
Battle
5
4
3
2
1
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
McCloud
Shasta
Trinity
Pit
Whiskey
town
Pit Virt
Res
Sacramento @ Butte Avg. Water Temps.
Battle
Almanor
24
Chico
Tehema
Butte
Upper
Feather
Feather
20
C
Sutter Bypass
Colusa
Clear
Assumed No Irrigation or Storage
28
Thomes
Black
Butte
Upper Pit
Water Temperature
Cow
CottonWood
Oroville Bullards
Bar
Yuba
threshold
16
12
Bear
8
Cache
Coon
Upper American
ios of Monthly Avg. Tmp
(55 Stn, Sacramento
~40 yrs)
Putah
Weir
Folsom
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Lower American
Irrigation w/ all Available Storage
San Joaquin
Inflows
hist
WrmDry (+1.9C)
WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)
WtWnt (+0.9C)
WtWntT2 (+3.2C)
WtWntT4 (+5.2C)
VWtrWnt (+3.2)
VWtWntT3 (+6.2)
Sacramento @ Butte Avg. Water Temps.
28
24
20
C
Delta
4
Oct
Sacramento River
Yolo Bypass
Jan
N. Pit
Clear
threshold
16
12
8
4
Oct
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Plans for ‘05
1. Refine Water Resources Model to able to address relevant
issues
•
FERC Re-licensing of the Yuba, American Bear
•
Sykes Reservoir Analysis
•
Others..
2. Regional Scenarios
Develop complete probabilistic approach w/ Bivariate
Bayesian Model
3. Refine Ecosystem service evaluation by placing into an
uncertainty construct
4. Legitimacy: Continue to engage relevant stakeholders in
model development and application process, especially utility
of probabilistic results!