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Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model: Climate Change Impacts on Circulation and Ozone Recovery D. Kinnison, R. Garcia, D. Marsh, S. Walters, S. Tilmes NCAR, CCWG, 27 February 2007 Presentation Outline • Climate change influences on Stratospheric Circulation… • Climate change influences on 21st century ozone recovery… • Should climate models include a more detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry? WACCM3 Simulations consistent with SPARC/WMO2006 • Eyring, V, D. Kinnison, T. Shepherd, SPARC Newsletter, 11-17, #25, July 2005. • Consistent with WMO 2006 Assessment Activities. • Simulations Forcings REF1 (historical) REF2 (Recovery) NCC (no clim change) Period 1950-2003 1980-2050 1995-2050 SST’s Observed CCSM IPCC simulations CCSM IPCC simulations CFC’s, HCFCs Observed WMO 2003 WMO 2003 CH4, CO2, NO Observed A1b (medium) Fixed at 2000 Sulfate Aerosol SAGEI, II: SAMS Includes Volc. Volcanically Clean Volcanically Clean Solar Variability 11-solar; F10.7; wavelength dep. Solar Cycle Average Solar Cycle Average CO2, CH4, N2O LBC Change REF2 NCC H2O = 2*CH4 = 2*.65 = 1.3ppmv How does climate change impact the mean stratospheric circulations? Mean Age-of-Air (years) Historical Change in Mean Age-of-air • Garcia et al. 2007 showed that the decrease in Mean AOA is consistent with an increase in the strength of the tropical upwelling. Garcia et al., 2007 Decrease of mean age of about 4-months over 40 years. Also discussed in Austin and Li [2006]. • The mechanism for this change in the mean circulation has not been isolated. Mean AOA Change with/without GHGs • Dameris et al. 2007 including this figure in a soon to be submitted article. • This clearly shows that without climate change, the mean AOA is constant! WMO Assessment, 2007; Chemistry / Climate Chapter. How does climate change impact the ozone recovery? CMAM AMTRAC • Eyring et al., 2007… GEOCHEM E39C ULAQ WACCM3 Sept/Oct; Poleward of 60S • Current CCM’s have large variation in recovery period (to 1980). • There is a high correlation to models that have higher ClY (older mean age) and longer recover, e.g., AMTRAC Ozone Recovery; Global; 3 CCMs ULAQ With Climate Change. DLR, E39C WACCM3 No Climate change: N2O, CH4, CO2 fixed at 2000 lbc. Dameris, Garcia, Kinnison, Pitari, Deckert, Mancini and Matthes, 2007 WACCM3 *** Ozone Loss Rates Year 2000 Ox: O + O3 = 2O2 HOx: HO2 + O = OH + O2 NOx: NO2 + O = NO + O2 ClOx: ClO + O = Cl + O2 T *** WACCM3 *** 2045, Annual average With Climate Change. Climate Change minus NCC O3 *** WACCM3 *** 2045, Annual average With Climate Change. Climate Change minus NCC Ox Loss *** WACCM3 *** 2045, Annual average With Climate Change. Climate Change minus NCC Summary: Why a Super Recovery? • Temperature Dependence of: O + O3 => 2O2 • Changes the rate of Ox loss: K ~ exp(-2060/T) • -5K slows loss reaction by 15%; O3 increases! • Temperature Dependence of: O + O2 + M => O3 + M • Changes the O/Ox partitioning; K ~ [300/T]2.3 • less O impacts NOx, HOx, ClOx catalytic cycles. • -5K; decreases the O/O3 ratio by 5%. • Indirect effect on NOy • N + O2 => NO + O: K ~ exp(-2060/T) • N increases with cooling; N+NO => N2 + O • Less NOy, more O3. Ref: Rosenfield et al., JGR, 2002 What’s Next with CCMs? SPARC Report on Evaluation of Chemistry Climate Models, Summer 2009 • Process Evaluation • Transport • Dynamics • UTLS • Radiation • Stratospheric chemistry and microphysics • Chemistry-climate coupling • Natural variability • Long-term changes in stratosphere • Effect of stratosphere on troposphere The End