Download Part 2 - Climate Change

–
69% of Americans believe there is evidence the earth is warming (up from 59% in 2010
and 30% in 2006)
– 42% of Americans believe global warming is caused
by human activities (not a purely natural
phenomenon)
– 41% thought that there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about global warming
– Attitudes are influenced by current weather
From Pew Research Center
March 2013
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Only 11% of Americans report being well informed on the climate systems.
57% of American adults have both heard of and correctly understand what the greenhouse
effect is
• 33% believe weather and climate are “pretty much the same”.
• 62% incorrectly believe that climate changes from year to year.
From Yale University
“Americans Knowledge of Climate Change”
2010
Major Greenhouse
Gases and Climate
Change
• Increases in average
concentrations of three
greenhouse gases in the
troposphere between
1860 and 2004, mostly
due to fossil fuel burning,
deforestation, and
agriculture.
Figure 20-5
Top 8 greenhouse gas emitters
1. Power plants
2. Industrial processes
3. Transportation
4. Agriculture
5. Fossil fuel extraction,
processing and distribution
6. Residential and commercial
buildings
7. Biomass burning
8. Waste disposal and treatment
Climate Change
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, a U.N. scientific network, projects
that temperatures will rise this century by
up to 6.4 degrees Celsius (11.5 degrees
Fahrenheit), depending on if and how
much emissions are rolled back of carbon
dioxide and other industrial, transportation
and agricultural gases that are warming
the atmosphere also known as
greenhouse gases (GHG).
Warmer temperatures in
Alaska, Russia, and the Arctic
are melting permafrost
releasing more CO2 and CH4
into the troposphere.
Scientific research indicates
sea levels worldwide have
been rising at a rate of 0.14
inches (3.5 millimeters) per
year since the early 1990s. The
trend, linked to global warming,
puts thousands of coastal
cities, like Venice, Italy, and
even whole islands at risk of
being claimed by the ocean.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN
ACTIVITIES
• Evidence that the earth’s troposphere is warming,
mostly because of human actions:
– The 20th century was the hottest century in the past 1000
years.
– Since 1900, the earth’s average tropospheric temperature
has risen 0.6 C°  1F °.
– Over the past 50 years, Arctic temperatures have risen
almost twice as fast as those in the rest of the world.
– Glaciers and floating sea ice are melting and shrinking at
increasing rates.
How Do We Know What
Temperatures Were in the Past?
• Scientists analyze tiny
air bubbles trapped in
ice cores learn about
past:
– troposphere
composition.
– temperature trends.
– greenhouse gas
concentrations.
– Solar output,
snowfall, and forest
fire activity. Figure 20-3
How Do We Know What
Temperatures Were in the Past?
• In 2005, an ice
core showed that
CO2 levels in the
troposphere are
the highest they
have been in
650,000 years.
Figure 20-4
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL
WARMING
• Between 1979 and
2005, average Arctic
sea ice dropped
20%.
• Therefore, a loss of
sunlight reflectivity.
The ocean absorbs
more heat energy
and warms waters to
melt ice faster.
Polar Ice Loss
July 31, 2013
Greenland hits a new record
High Temp : 25.9 C / 78.6 F
Ocean Acidification
The Carbon Dioxide - Bicarbonate Equilibrium
CO2 dissolves rapidly in water, and reacts with water to
form carbonic acid, which rapidly ionizes to form
bicarbonate and carbonate. Dissolved CO2 causes water to
become slightly acidic; The pH of sea water today is
typically between 7.36 and 8.4, which is slightly basic.
Buffering by bicarbonate and other ions is important in
maintaining the correct pH.
The photos below show what happens to a pteropod’s shell when placed in sea water
with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100. The shell slowly dissolves
after 45 days
CaCO3(s) + H+(aq) --> Ca2+(aq) + HCO3-(aq)
The Biological Impacts
Ocean acidification is expected to impact ocean species to varying
degrees. Photosynthetic algae and seagrasses may benefit from higher
CO2 conditions in the ocean, as they require CO2 to live just like plants on
land. On the other hand, studies have shown that a more acidic
environment has a dramatic effect on some calcifying species, including
oysters, clams, sea urchins, shallow water corals, deep sea corals, and
calcareous plankton. When shelled organisms are at risk, the entire food
web may also be at risk. Today, more than a billion people worldwide rely
on food from the ocean as their primary source of protein. Many jobs and
economies in the U.S. and around the world depend on the fish and
shellfish in our oceans.
The below map shows the concentration of
anthropogenic CO2 at the surface of the ocean.
The concentration of "mmol kg-1" stands for millimoles of carbon dioxide per kilogram of
sea water. A "mole" is a quantity measurement in chemistry that is equal to
6 x 1023 atoms or molecules. Since "milli" means one thousandth, a millimole would be
6 x 1020 atoms or molecules. So the red along the eastern coast of United States is 0.06
millimoles of carbon dioxide, which means 0.06 x 6x1020= 3.6 x 1021 molecules of
carbon dioxide for each kilogram (about a liter) of ocean water.
Rising Sea Levels
• During this century
rising seas levels
are projected to
flood low-lying
urban areas,
coastal estuaries,
wetlands, coral
reefs, and barrier
islands and
beaches.
Figure 20-10
Rising Sea Levels
• If seas levels
rise by 9-88cm
during this
century, most
of the Maldives
islands and
their coral reefs
will be flooded.
Figure 20-11
•
Millions of the peoples living in
Himalayan region are relying on
the glacial melt waters from the
Himalayan glaciers. A decline in
glacier mass balance can mean
less water available for rivers. It
is a worry that the receding
glacier trend could lead to the
Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and
other rivers in northern India
becoming seasonal rivers. If
these major rivers are dry
during the summer months. It
will affect the water supply for
irrigation.
Effects on Biodiversity:
Winners and Losers
• Life forms migrates or
expand to “comfortable”
regions (Zone of Tolerance)
Droughts/Floods/Storms
Positive Loop Feedback
• When a part of the cycle is increased beyond “normal”
it may lead to an increase in the cycle’s rate.
• Increase in CO2  in atmospheric temperatures 
causes permafrost to melt which releases CH4 a rise
in atmospheric temperatures which causes oceans to
warm  ocean CO2 sink stops  greenhouse gas
CO2 remains in atmosphere  temperatures increase
 causes a drought  may result in a major forest fire
 releases CO2 and reduces the forests that help
store the CO2 …
Kyoto Protocol
• International Treaty
• "The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialised
countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse
gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 . The goal is to
lower overall emissions of six greenhouse gases - carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and
PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year period of
2008-12. National targets range from 8% reductions for the
European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for
Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for
Australia and 10% for Iceland." This was mainly taken on by
rich countries. Why?
BUT…..
• No United States president has signed it
• Government says it will be a jolt to the
economy.
• Even with the EPA rules, the amount of air
pollution in the US has increased.
• If current trends continue, the amount of
pollutants in the air would be 43% higher
by 2020.
National Participation
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Kyoto Protocol participation map (commitment period: 2013-2020)
Parties; Annex I & II countries with binding targets
Parties; Developing countries without binding targets
States not Party to the Protocol
Signatory country with no intention to ratify the treaty, with no binding
targets
Countries that have renounced the Protocol, with no binding targets
Parties with no binding targets in the second period, which previously had
targets
Climate Conferences
• In 2014 a Lima Peru will host the
20th yearly session of the
Conference of the Parties (COP)
to the 1992 United Nations
Framework Convention on
Climate Change(UNFCCC) and
the 10th session of the Meeting
of the Parties (CMP) to the
1997 Kyoto Protocol (the
protocol having been developed
under the UNFCCC's charter)
• A disagreement between the
United States and China has
stalled progress on this central
element of any global climate
deal. For the past 13 years, the
U.S. has refused to join the rest
of the industrialized world in the
Kyoto Protocol, a binding pact to
curb fossil-fuel emissions by
modest amounts, due to expire in
2012. More recently, as China,
India and other emerging
economies exempted from the
1997 Kyoto pact have sharply
increased emissions, they have
rejected calls by the U.S. and
others to commit by treaty to
restraints.
Climate Conferences
• Significant progress has been identified as
possible in three key areas:
• 1. Establish a multibillion-dollar fund to aid
poorer countries to adapt to climate change and
to install clean energy sources.
• 2. Agree on more elements of a complex plan to
pay developing countries to protect their forests.
• 3. Make it easier for poorer nations to obtain
patented technologies from the industrialized
world for clean energy and climate adaptation.
What Can You Do?
Reducing CO2 Emissions
• Use less electricity – Won’t somebody think of the Polar
Bears?
• Use energy-efficient windows
• Use energy-efficient appliances and lights
• Heavily insulate your house and seal all drafts
• Reduce garbage by recycling and reuse
• Insulate your hot water heater
• Use compact fluorescent bulbs
• Plant trees to shade your house during summer
• Set water heater no higher than 49°C (120°F)
• Wash laundry in warm or cold water
• Use low-flow shower head
• Buy products from companies that are trying to reduce
their impact on climate
• Drive a fuel-efficient car, walk, bike, carpool,
and use mass transit
Fig. 20-16, p. 485
Carbon Sequestration
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What is Carbon Trading? also known as cap and trade
The cap is an enforceable limit on emissions that is usually lowered over time —
aiming towards a national emissions reduction target
Carbon Trading is a market based mechanism for helping mitigate the increase
of CO2 in the atmosphere. Carbon trading markets are developing that bring
buyers and sellers of carbon credits together with standardized rules of trade.
Who are potential buyers for Carbon credits?
Any entity, typically a business, that emits CO2 to the atmosphere may have an
interest or may be required by law to balance their emissions through mechanism
of Carbon sequestration. These businesses may include power generating
facilities or many kinds of manufacturers.
Who are potential sellers of Carbon credits?
Entities that manage forest or agricultural land might sell carbon credits based on
the accumulation of carbon in their forest trees or agricultural soils. Similarly,
business entities that reduce their carbon emission may be able to sell their
reductions to other emitters.
Who does this website target?
In effect, the buyer is paying a charge for polluting, while the seller is being
rewarded for having reduced emissions. Thus, in theory, those who can
reduce emissions most cheaply will do so, achieving the pollution
reduction at the lowest cost to society.[
Carbon Credit Trading
• As more governments begin to cap carbon
emissions and initiate trading schemes, there
will need to be regulatory bodies that measure
and confirm reduced emissions. And those
agencies will need new instruments and
technologies to measure and record.
• Carbon trading is one of the "fastest-growing
specialties in financial services." And companies
are scrambling to get "a slice of a market now
worth about $30 billion and that could grow to $1
trillion within a decade."
Carbon Credit Trading
• Every year humans generate about 38
billion tons of carbon dioxide
• At its current price of about $3.50 per ton,
the potential carbon market stands at
roughly $133 billion (38 billion x $3.50).
The burning of fossil
fuels releases
11 BILLION TONS
of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere every year.
What would this volume
look like.
http://www.independent.co.uk
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