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Climate Change and Health
Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.
Center for Health and the Global Environment
Harvard Medical School
http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
TMINS:
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WINTERS & NIGHTS
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
RESPIRATORY & CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE
Indoor pollutants
Socioeconomic/emotional factors
FOSSIL FUEL-RELATED
ASTHM
A
2-3fold
since1980
Tree & Weed Pollen
Ground-level 03
(T-dependant)
Diesel PM
Floods & Fungi
Droughts, Fires & Haze
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Global Emergence, Resurgence &
Redistribution of Infectious Diseases
30 DISEASES “NEW” TO MEDICINE SINCE 1976
HIV/AIDS
Ebola
Legionnaires’
E. coli O157:H7
Multiple Antibiotic-Resistant Agents
Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome
Lyme Disease
Nipah Virus
Vibrio cholerae O139
Arenaviruses
RESURGENT & REDISTRIBUTING
Malaria, Dengue Fever, West Nile Virus
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
VECTORS
Mosquitoes
Ticks
Rodents
Bats
Tsetse Flies
Fleas
Lice
Snails
Algae
SARS-Severe acute respiratory syndrome
CORONAVIRUS
1. Mutation
2. Genetic
recombination
3. Mouse
hepatitis or
chicken virus
4. (BT)
TRADE, TRAVEL, TOURISM
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WEST NILE VIRUS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
-CDC
WEST NILE VIRUS
HUMAN CASES & DEATHS
4161 cases
1460
277 deaths
62
66
21
1999
2000
2001
2002 (17Sep)
Feb ‘03
-Science 2002:297:1988
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WNV: A DISEASE OF WILDLIFE
230 SPECIES
INFECTED IN 2002
•
134 Bird spp., Raptors
• 14,045 Horses
• Zoo Penguins & Macaques
• Reptiles – Fla. Alligators
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
AVIAN FLYWAYS
LYME DISEASE
1980s
1990s
TICK DISTRIBUTION IN SWEDEN
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
-Lindgren & Gustafson. Lancet 2001;358:16
CHANGES
IN
MONTANE
REGIONS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Cryosphere
Plants
Mosquitoes
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Range Expansion of Soybean Cyst
Nematode in North America
Crop Pests
Generations/Year
From: Rosenzweig et al., GC & HH 2001;2:90
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
HURRICANE
MITCH 1998
HURRICANE
MITCH
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
HURRICANE MITCH
IMPACTS ON HEALTH
AND DEVELOPMENT
DISEASE CLUSTER
-- Malaria (>30,000 cases)
-- Dengue fever (>1,000)
-- Cholera (>30,000)
-- Leptospirosis
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Poor Communities & Developing Nations
Oil-related health consequences
Extraction: Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico
Refining & benzene
Utility plants & mercury
Air pollution & inner city truck routes
Extreme weather events
Economic inequities
Vulnerabilities – coping, adaptation,
restoration, prevention,
public health infrastructure
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Mozambique
But no nation is immune
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS &
DISEASE CLUSTERS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL HAZARDS
and TRAUMA
 Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel
 Floods & Mudslides
 Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches
 Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q
HEALTH & ECONOMIC IMPACTS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
SST Anomalies October 14 2002
Freshening of the
North Atlantic
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Deep Ocean Warming
Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287: 2225
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
FRESHENING OF
THE
NORTH ATLANTIC
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Hoerling and Kumar, Science 2003 ;299: 691
OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS
Exploration
Extraction
Transport
Refining
Spills
Marine
Mammals
&
Leaks
Harm
Shore birds
MERCURY
Transport
Air Pollution
Acid Rain
Eutrophication
NOxs
Warming Oceans
Climate Change Coral Reefs
SLR
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
EWEs
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Melting Polar Ice
Fisheries
Consumers
Livelihoods
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Humans
Wildlife
Crops
Trees
Coral
Marine Life
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
Costs of Extreme Weather Events
UNEP Projections
$150 Billion/yr w/in the Decade w/ Current Trends
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
BENEFITS & OPPORTUNITIES
•Energy Efficiency (EE)
•Renewable Energy (RE) Technologies
•“Green Buildings” & Smart Growth
•Transport and Transit Systems
JOB
•Ecological Reconstruction
CREATION
•Retrofitting Infrastructure
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
& MARKET SIGNALS
CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL
THE ENGINE OF
GROWTH
for the
21st CENTURY