Download Looking Beyond Windows 2000

Windows in the
Enterprise: Looking
Beyond Windows 2000
John Enck
Vice President and Research Director
Server Strategies
Gartner
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA
server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for
Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities
that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing
infrastructures?
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA
server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for
Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities
that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing
infrastructures?
Server Forecast by OS
2001 = Actuals; 2002-2006 = Forecast
70
Others
60
NSK
OS/400
$ Billions
50
zOS
Tru64
40
HP-UX
A IX
30
Solaris
Unixware
20
Netware
Linux
10
Windows
NT
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
March 2002
Server Forecast by Processor
2001 = Actuals; 2002-2006 = Forecast
70
60
Other
CMOS
MIPS
SPARC
Alpha
Power
IA-32
Itanium
PA-RISC
$ Billions
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
March 2002
Windows Road Map
Microsoft’s Release Challenges
 Release Synchronization: All
packages same time? Holidays,
back-to-school…
 Customization: Shared vs. unique
code? Consumer, Datacenter, 64bit…
 Frequency: Size of Mid-term
“releases”, or longer-term major
releases? Active Directory,
partitioning, .NET, bonus packs…
 Hardware Synchronization: Intel
processors, OEM systems? Itanium,
McKinley…
 Delivery: Pre-installed, in-place
upgrades, subscriptions? OEM
delivery, Internet delivery…
2002
2003
2004
2005
Windows .NET




Active Directory V2
64-bit support
“McKinley”-based systems
16-way systems from IBM
Windows “Longhorn”
 Work management
 Partition-awareness
2006
2007
Windows “Blackcomb”
 Unified data store V1?
Intel Server Processor Road Map
Performance
Itanium .25 McKinley .18
Madison/Deerfield .13 … .09
64-bit SMP
32-bit extended-addressing SMP?
?
PIII Xeon Xeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading
32-bit SMP
PIII
Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09
32-bit mainstream uniprocessor
PIII
PIII M
P4 M Alternate Mobile
32-bit low-power uniprocessor
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA
server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for
Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities
that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing
infrastructures?
Operating System Landscape
2001/2002
2006
Operating
System
Landscape
Web and
Front-End
Web and
Increasing
Volume
Opportunity
Infrastructure
Applications
Infrastructure
Front-End
Applications
Specific and
Customized
EnterpriseCritical
Specific and
Customized
EnterpriseCritical
As of 2/02
Increasing System and Application Complexity
NT/W2K
NetWare
Linux
Unix
Z/OS
Server Roles are Evolving
Old World
• Monolithic computing
architectures
• Rapid obsolescence
• 1-to-1 resource ownership
• Workloads disaggregated
“Net Gen”
• Capacity on demand (one-totwo years)
• Service-based architectures
(two-to-four years)
• IT utilities — pay per-usage
(three-to-four years)
• Mixed workloads and virtual
resources (five+ years)
• Zero latency business process
(five+ years)
Caching, firewall,
routers, network
appliances, Web
server, gateways
Small to
midrange SMP,
midtier, simple
transactions
Large, mixed,
complex
workloads;
investment
protection
Edge
Specific function
Manage network
Fast setup/low cost
Horizontal scaling
Application
General purpose
Manage user
Vertical scaling
Packaged apps.
Database/
Transaction
Extreme scaling
Manage enterprise
Complex
transactions
Highly available
Does one size fit all?
Requirement
Vertical
Scaling
Horizontal
Scaling
3-D:
Consolidated
Workloads
Capacity on
Demand
Single image, large
memory, good reliability
Rapid, simple, inexpensive
deployment, central
management, reduced
space/power consumption
Share system resources
without collision (mixed
workload, partitions)
Rapidly and easily scale or
replace failed capacity
without paying for unused
capacity
Windows
1,300 concurrent OLTP
RDBMS users today
Application Center,
appliance offerings
Job objects, work
management tools,
VMware, ES7000
Hardware vendor
offerings for
horizontal scaling
Head to Head at
the High End
ES7000 SunFire zSeries
8-Way
Windows Windows Solaris z/OS
System Performance
Single System Availability
Workload Management
Technology
OS Partitioning
Architectural Viability
Market
Momentum
ISV Enthusiasm
Application Choice
Support
Negotiation Opportunity
Professional Services
Business
Availability of Skills
Practices
Worst
Best
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA
server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for
Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities
that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing
infrastructures?
The Real Causes of Server Downtime
Outstanding skills and processes could
eliminate many issues, and should be the
primary focus to increase availability.
Operator Errors
• Inexperienced
skills
• Poor/immature
processes
• Being addressed
by Windows
Datacenter
(services program)
20%
40%
40%
Technology Failures
• MS development process
• Hardware failures
• Environmental factors
• Power failures and disasters
• Being addressed by
Windows development
process
Application Failures
• Memory leaks
• Weak architecture, design
• Poor systems integration,
testing
• Immature applications
• Being addressed by
memory leak focus,
certification push
Windows Data Center Skills Gap
Entry Skills
Availability Everywhere!
Cost Inexpensive
Retention Technical
growth
Recommendations
Focus on Skills Development
• Service providers: With skills transfer
• Internally: Mentors, apprentices
Organize for Services, Not Technologies
• Cross-platform teams
Focus on Retention Programs
Experienced
Data Center
Skills
Extremely
hard to find
Very expensive —
strong competition
(especially from
service providers)
Significant
problems — strong
Windows skills are
very portable
Sever Consolidation:
The Options are Coming . . .
Application
Windows
VMware
Unisys ES7000
Intel Server
Racks
Mixed
Workload
Hardware
Partitioning
Isolation
Administration cost
Configuration cost
Space, heat
Hardware efficiency
Windows in 2001
Windows in 2004
Worst
Best
Logical
Partitioning
The Ultimate Showdown . . .
vs.
Windows Strengths
• Competitive choices between
Intel server vendors
• Configuration price
• Availability of entry skills
• Microsoft software and
development tools
• Strength in existing
infrastructures — e.g., file/print,
e-mail, directory
• Small-business accessibility, suite
Unix
Windows Challenges
• Enterprise reluctance
(organization structure, existing
investments)
• Proven stability
• Proven scalability
• Server consolidation
• Availability/cost/portability of
experienced skills
• Product breadth
• Price and licensing vs. Linux
Key Issues
1 . What are the road maps for Windows and IA
server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for
Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities
that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing
infrastructures?
Operating System Life Cycles
98
Product launch
Reduced channels,
fixes for fee
Online support only
NTW v.4
NTS v.4
2000
2000 Server
*
XP
*
*
.NET Server
2002
*
“Longhorn” Client
“Longhorn” Server
Gartner estimates
2001
*
2003
2004
2005
*
2006
2007
Dot What?
.NET vis-à-vis Application Developers

XML, SOAP, WSDL, UDDI, CLR, ADO.NET
.NET vis-à-vis Windows 2000

Active Directory improvements

Instant messaging infrastructure

End-user restore (self-service file recovery)

Itanium Processor Family (IPF, a.k.a. IA-64) support

New packaging (Web, Standard, Enterprise, and Datacenter)

Eight-node clustering in Datacenter; four-node in Enterprise
.NET vis-à-vis Windows NT 4

The carrot… and the stick!
Windows Server Migration: A Matter
of Timing
End of Support 2005?
or
Ready for Deployment Late 2002
No  If deployment timing fits, use Windows .NET servers
Windows 2000  If new Active Directory features are valuable, delay
deployment and use Windows .NET servers
servers
 Otherwise, deploy Windows 2000
Some
 Avoid mixing domain controllers; mixing others is
Windows 2000
acceptable
servers
All
Windows 2000
servers
 Remain on Windows 2000; upgrade with hardware
refresh (avoid mixing domain controllers)
Active Directory in Windows .NET
Domain rename
Forest-level root trusts
Ability to delete schema extensions
Introduction of application partitions
= Only available with 100%
Windows .NET domain
controllers
= Available with mixed
Windows 2000/.NET
domain controllers
Support for LDAP inetOrgPerson object
Support for multiple binds over one LDAP connection
Global catalog no longer required in each site
Support for directory initialization from media
Improved intersite replication topology generation
Group membership replication improvements
Group size limitations removed
Improved migration and management tools
Copyright © 2002
Recommendations
Roles: Plan for a long-term architecture that includes several different operating
systems in various roles.
Cost: The most important factors in enterprise Windows server TCO are experienced
skills and efficient administration tools.
Application Support: Check comparable references first for any high-end Windowsbased deployments. Avoid the leading-edge.
Availability: The best way to maximize Windows availability is through skills and
processes.
Server Consolidation: Server consolidation is technically feasible, however use
extreme caution and evaluate the technology options (partitioning, workload
management, virtual servers) carefully.
Skills and Services: If Windows is or will become mission-critical for your
enterprise, then an employee cross-training and retention program should be a top
priority.
Windows in the Enterprise:
Looking Beyond Windows 2000
QUESTIONS?
John Enck
Vice President and Research Director
Server Strategies
Gartner