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Understanding Complex Dynamical Systems John Usher Org Theory Rossitsa Yalamova Finance Foundations of “New” Social Science • Old and new assumptions: agents and equilibria • Deliberate vs. emergent strategy • Control vs. selforganization • Fish / birds / termites (Schools, flocks, bldgs) • GM: bidding paint robots • Internet / Economy Four Types of Complexity • 1) Static complexity • 2) Dynamic complexity • 3) Evolving complexity • 4) Self-organizing complexity Type I: Static Complexity • System structure does not change with time • Count the number of transistors on a computer chip or number of cells in a life form • Quantity => Pattern • Fractal complication Type II: Dynamic Complexity • Adds fourth dimension of time • Recognize temporal patterns (seasons) but lose spatial patterns (leaves) • Not just predictable attributes but variable and extreme events Type III: Evolving Complexity • Open-ended, noncyclic change • Variation Selection Retention models • Learning, art, galaxies as well as species • Identifying patterns among systems not outcomes Type IV: Self-Organizing Complexity • System co-evolves with its environment • Classification of system out of context is not a valid description • Ecology or language • Work on environment constraints & let system evolve a solution instead of trying to impose one Autopoesis • Egocentric organizations • Survival must always be with, not against, the environment • Example: depletion of fish stocks Edge-of-Chaos • Phase transitions • Basins of attraction • Edge-of-chaos situations can flip patterns • Small changes = BIG effects Mutual Causality • Positive and Negative Feedback Loops • Deviation amplifying and stabilizing • Understand the system, not just linear cause and effect • Intervention points Management and Emergent Change • Powerless power • A loss of control or a loss of perceived control? • Understanding limits of control & finding points of intervention • Shaping patterns instead of planning Guidance for the Pattern Shaper Sources: Tom Peters, Jim March and Robert Burgelman • The world is a stream of problems that can be activated, bound in new ways, or bypassed • Timing is important • Realizing what levers you control and don’t control is important knowledge • Modeling a change gains more ground than asking for it • Skinner was right about reinforcement • Nudge the system and ask questions to assess their effect • And remember… Lawlessness can be a good thing • “I say unto you: one must still have chaos in oneself to be able to give birth to a dancing star.” (Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra) Now it gets really scary… WAIT