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GLOBAL VULNERABILITY REDUCTION (Part 3) A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION ACCELERATING REDUCTION OF EVERY COMMUNITY’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS WILL BE THE KEY TO SURVIVAL FOR MILLIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY MAY 27, 2011 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA RISK ASSESSMENT •HAZARD MAPS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK FROM EXPERIENCE TO BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE TO…STOP. DATA BASES AND INFORMATION COMMUNITY POLICIES FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY & RISK HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •EDUCATION/TRAINING •PREVENTION/MITIGATION •MONITORING •ADAPTATION OUR LEGACY: A GLOBAL REDUCTION OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • COST • EXPOSURE NATURAL HAZARDS • EVENT EXPECTED LOSS • BENEFIT •CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT POLICY ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION •A report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program •June 20, 2008 • A joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies • for the report, go online to www.usgcrp.gov •"Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase in frequency and in intensity.” "Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity.” • “Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase.” • • The strongest winter storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights." Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to be more wide spread. • Landslides triggered in earthquakes or by flooding are likely to be more extensive. • The impacts of tsunami wave run up is likely to be more extensive. • “By the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years now could be taking place every five years.” • “An increase in frequency can lead to more frequent occurrences of flooding events such as those that occurred in the Midwest during 2009 AND 2011.” Drought is the result of the interaction of rainfall, which can be highly variable, and human systems, which can be very vulnerable to changes in rainfall. Drought is related to climatic variability that usually is occurring far from the community or the area being impacted by drought. CAUSES OF RISK PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DROUGHTS CASE HISTORIES DEPLETION &POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION • CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS (i.e., WARMING AND COOLING OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN) • LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN RANGE Earthquakes occur as the result of interactions between and within tectonic plates in the lithosphere that are slowly converging, diverging, or sliding past each other as a result of stresses created by ongoing heat flow within the Earth. CAUSES OF RISK INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN CASE HISTORIES TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON TSUNAMIS CAUSES OF RISK HIGH VELOCITY OF INCOMING WAVES DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP AND RUNOFF VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS CASE HISTORIES INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI TSUNAMI: CHILE, 2011 • ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL DEPTH. • ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE WHERE CONDITIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF THE “KILLER PULSE” ARE BEST. • AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS • LONG--DURATION ACCELERATION PULSE CAUSED BY FLING OF THE FAULT • BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND LATERAL GROUND SHAKING • LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE, LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FLOODS CASE HISTORIES EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH AND INJURY LOSS FUNCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS Flooding occurs when the local river channels, floodplains, wetlands, and water tables are not able to contain, store, or transmit local precipitation and runoff. • COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE FLOODPLAIN • PROLONGED RAINFALL • EXTENDED DRAINAGE IN A LARGE BASIN • HIGH VELOCITY FLOW BOOK OF KNOWLEDE ON SEVERE WINDSTORMS CAUSES OF RISK WIND AND WATER INSIDE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS CASE HISTORIES UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 • • • • Alex (H) June 21 Bonnie July 27 Colin Aug 3 Danielle (H) Aug 21 • Earl (H) Aug.29 • Fiona Aug 30 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 • • • • • • Gaston Sept 1 Hermine Sept 6 Igor H Sept 8 Julia H Sept 12 Karl Sept 14 Lisa Sept 21 CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS CASE HISTORIES SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES LANDSLIDES: RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL; 2011 Once tropical forests (a carbon sink) are cleared for cattle ranching or community development, the cleared land can becomes a major source of methane, a greenhouse gas. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON WILDFIRES CAUSES OF RISK LIGHTNING MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE WILDFIRES CASE HISTORIES WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CUTTING FORESTS DENUDED SLOPES HOT, DRY WEATHER t BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CAUSES OF RISK PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME AND ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS INADEQUATE WARNING ANO EVACUATION GRIMSVOTN’S ASH PLUME REACHED 20 KM (12 MI): MAY 21, 2011