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GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE The Paradigm for 2014 That Makes Our Tomorrows Better STEP 1 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE • Step 1: Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge • Step 2: From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building • Step 3: From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s LACK OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE HAS RESULTED IN DEATHS REACHING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS ECONOMIC LOSSES REACHING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS STEP 1 Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge WHAT DO WE KNOW? • Floods, hurricanes, tropical storms, typhoons, cyclones, tornadoes, nor'easters, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides will recur during 2014 and ad infinitum. GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • TSUNAMIS • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • LANDSLIDES • WILDFIRES GLOBAL DISASTER RISKS THAT BECOME ECONOMIC LOSSES WHAT DO WE KNOW? • All natural hazards test the disaster resilience of our governments, our institutions, and our communities. LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS NO DISASTERS: DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY WHAT DO WE KNOW? • Some natural hazards will cause a disaster. LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS A DISASTER: INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY EVERY TIME A DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO THE “GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ICELAND’S HAZARDS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS EUROPE’S HAZARDS • • • • • • EARTHQUAKES FLOODS DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • WILDFIRES MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S HAZARDS • • • • • • EARTHQUAKES FLOODS DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • WILDFIRES EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S HAZARDS • • • • • EARTHQUAKES FLOODS DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES TSUNAMIS EUROPE’S HAZARDS: TURKEY • • • • • EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES EUROPE’S HAZARDS: IRAN • • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DUST STORMS LANDSLIDES DROUGHTS AFRICA’S HAZARDS: NORTHERN AFRICA • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DUST STORMS DROUGHTS AFRICA’S HAZARDS: SUBSAHARA • FLOODS • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • DESERTIFICATION AFRICA’S HAZARDS: EGYPT • • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES DUST STORMS DROUGHTS DESERTIFICATION ASIA’S HAZARDS: JAPAN • • • • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS TYPHOONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDES DROUGHTS ASIA’S HAZARDS: INDIA • • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES CYCLONES LANDSLIDES DROUGHTS ASIA’S HAZARDS: CHINA • • • • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES TYPHOONS ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDES DROUGHTS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EUROPE/ASIA’S HAZARDS: RUSSIA • • • • • • • FLOODS EARTHQUAKES WINDSTORMS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES LANDSLIDES DROUGHTS PACIFIC RING OF FIRE HAZARDS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • FLOODS • EARTHQUAKES • TSUNAMIS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PACIFIC RING OF FIRE HAZARDS: THE PHILIPPINES • • • • • FLOODS TYPHOONS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • LANDSLIDES INDIAN OCEAN’S HAZARDS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • FLOODS • EARTHQUAKES • TSUNAMIS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS NORTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS • • • • • • FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TORNADOES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • LANDSLIDES UNITED STATE’S HAZARDS • • • • • • FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TORNADOES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • LANDSLIDES CANADA’S HAZARDS • • • • • FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES LANDSLIDES WINTER STORMS MEXICO’S HAZARDS • • • • FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • LANDSLIDES LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN’S HAZARDS • • • • • • HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS THE CARIBBEAN’S HAZARDS • • • • • • HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS SOUTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS • • • • • EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS SOUTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS: PERU • • • • • EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS SOUTH AMERICA’S HAZARDS: CHILE • • • • • EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • WILDFIRES NEW ZEALAND’S HAZARDS • EARTHQUAKES • FLOODS • LANDSLIDES AUSTRALIA’S HAZARDS • • • • CYCLONES EARTHQUAKES FLOODS WILDFIRES •MONITORING •HAZARD MAPS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATIONR ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION YOUR COUNTRY POLICIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •EDUCATION •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EM RESPONSE •RECOVERY BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE ARE TOOLS TO FACILITATE A COUNTRY’S MOVEMENT TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE THE PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • COST • EXPOSURE NATURAL HAZARDS • EVENT EXPECTED LOSS • BENEFIT •CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT POLICY ADOPTION Flooding occurs when the local river channels, floodplains, wetlands, and water tables are not able to contain, store, or transmit local precipitation and runoff. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FLOODS CASE HISTORIES EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH AND INJURY LOSS FUNCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS BOOK OF KNOWLEDE SEVERE WINDSTORMS CAUSES OF RISK WIND AND WATER INSIDE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS CASE HISTORIES UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN CASE HISTORIES TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS • BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND LATERAL GROUND SHAKING • LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE, LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE TSUNAMIS CAUSES OF RISK HIGH VELOCITY OF INCOMING WAVES DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP AND RUNOFF VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS CASE HISTORIES INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CAUSES OF RISK PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME AND ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS INADEQUATE WARNING ANO EVACUATION CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS CASE HISTORIES SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE WILDFIRES CAUSES OF RISK LIGHTNING MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE WILDFIRES CASE HISTORIES WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CUTTING FORESTS DENUDED SLOPES HOT, DRY WEATHER CAUSES OF RISK PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DROUGHTS CASE HISTORIES DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION