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A Lecture Presentation to accompany Exploring Economics 3rd Edition by Robert L. Sexton Copyright © 2005 Thomson Learning, Inc. Thomson Learning™ is a trademark used herein under license. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Instructors of classes adopting EXPLORING ECONOMICS, 3rd Edition by Robert L. Sexton as an assigned textbook may reproduce material from this publication for classroom use or in a secure, electronic network environment that prevents downloading or reproducing the copyrighted material. Otherwise, no part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including, but not limited to, photocopying, recording, taping, Web distribution, information networks, or information storage and retrieval systems—without the written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America ISBN 0-324-26086-5 Chapter 1 The Role and Method of Economics 1.1 Economics: A Brief Introduction Many issues in our lives are at least partly economic in character: Why do 10 AM classes fill up faster than 8 AM classes during registration? Why is it difficult to find a cab after a play on a rainy night in in New York City? Why is it hard to find an apartment in cities like, San Francisco, Berkeley and New York? Why is teenage unemployment higher than adult unemployment? Will higher taxes on cigarettes reduce the amount people smoke? If so, by how much? Why do professional athletes make so much money? Why do US auto producers like tariffs (taxes) on imported cars? Another reason to study economics is that it may teach you how to think better. The economic way of thinking is a set of problem– solving tools that may prove to be valuable in your professional and personal life. Much of economic life involves making choices between conflicting wants in a world of limited resources Economics gives us clues on how to intelligently evaluate out options. The economic approach sheds light on many social issues such as discrimination, education, crime and divorce. Many front page stories are filled with articles relating to economics. Economics is the study of the allocation of our limited resources to satisfy our unlimited wants. Resources are inputs that are used to produce goods and services. Scarcity forces us to make choices on how to best use our limited resources. The economic problem: Scarcity forces us to choose, and choices are costly because we must give up other opportunities that we value. Living in a world of scarcity means facing tradeoffs—a trip to the grocery store versus the mall; finishing a research paper or going to the beach or a movie; sleep or class. 1.2 Economics as a Science Economics, like the other social sciences, is concerned with reaching generalizations about human behavior. Conventionally, we distinguish between two main branches of economics: macroeconomics, and microeconomics. Macroeconomics is the study of the aggregate, or total economy. It looks at economic problems as they influence the whole of society, including the topics of inflation, unemployment, business cycles, and economic growth. Microeconomics deals with the smaller units within the economy. It attempts to understand the decision making behavior of firms and households and their interaction in markets for particular goods or services. Microeconomics looks at the trees; Macroeconomics looks at the forest. 1.3 Economic Behavior Economists assume that individuals act as if they are motivated by self-interest and respond in predictable ways to changing circumstances. To a worker, self-interest means pursuing a higher paying job and/or better working conditions. To a consumer, self-interest means gaining a greater level of satisfaction from their limited income and time. Most economists believe that it is rational for people to try to anticipate the likely future consequences of one's behavior before choosing it—like driving with a suspended driver’s license or choosing to take up smoking. Actions have consequences—even inactions, which are choices not to do something or not to make changes, have consequences—failing to study for an exam. In mainstream economics, to say that people are rational is not to assume that they never make mistakes. It is merely to say that they do NOT make systematic mistakes. And when economists talk of self-interest, they are not just referring to satisfaction of material wants but to a broader idea of “preferences” that can easily encompass the welfare of others. 1.4 Economic Theory Theories are statements or propositions used to explain and predict behavior in the real world. Because of the complexity of human behavior, economists must abstract to focus on the most important components of a particular problem. This is similar to maps that highlight the important information (and assume away many of the minor details) to help people get from here to there. A hypothesis in economic theory is a testable prediction about how people will behave or react to a change in economic circumstances. For example, if the price of CDs increase, we can hypothesize that fewer CDs would be sold. Empirical analysis, the use of data to test hypotheses, is applied to determine whether or not a hypothesis fits well with the facts. If an economic hypothesis is supported by the data, we can tentatively accept as an economic theory. 1.5 Problems to Avoid in Scientific Thinking Virtually all theories in economics are expressed using a ceteris paribus (“holding everything else constant”) assumption. An example of ceteris paribus: The theory that if I study harder, I will perform better on a test must carefully hold other things constant. These other things might include—what if you studied so hard you overslept or you were too sleepy to think clearly? Or what if you studied the wrong stuff? One must always be careful not to confuse correlation with causation. The fact that two events usually occur together (correlation) does not necessarily mean that one caused the other to occur (causation) . Does a roosters crowing cause the sun to rise? Why are ice cream sales and crime positively correlated? People drive slowly when roads are icy—are lower speeds the cause of increased accidents? Or do icy roads lead to lower speeds and more accidents. Fallacy of composition—the incorrect view that what is true for the individual is always true for the group. For example, standing up at a football game or a concert to see better only works if others do not do the same thing. How about getting to school early to get a better parking place? What if everybody gets up early to get a better parking spot? 1.6 Positive and Normative Analysis Positive analysis--an objective testable statement. Positive statements are attempts to describe what happens and why it happens. Normative analysis--a subjective nontestable item about what should be or what ought to happen. Normative statements are attempts to prescribe what should be done. For example, should the government give “free” prescription drugs to seniors? Or should the government increase spending in the space program? Disagreement is common in most disciplines. The majority of disagreements in economics stem from normative issues. However, there is some disagreement over positive analysis—there may be mixed empirical evidence or insufficient information. Most economists agree on a wide range of issues including the effects of rent control, import tariffs, export restrictions, the use of wage and price controls to curb inflation, and the minimum wage. Appendix: Working with Graphs Graphs are an important economic tool. They: allow economists to better understand the workings of the economy, and enhance the understanding of important economic relationships. The most useful graph for our purposes is one that merely connects a vertical line (the Y-axis) with a horizontal line (the X-axis). Exhibit 1: Plotting a Graph Y 50 40 30 20 10 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 10 20 30 40 50 X Three common types of graphs are: pie charts, bar graphs, and time series graphs. Exhibit 2: Exhibit 2: Exhibit 2: Graphs can be used to show the relationship between two variables. A variable is something that is measured by a number–like your height. Relationships between two variables can be expressed in a simple two-dimensional graph. A positive relationship means that two variables move in the same direction. That is, an increase in one variable (practice time) is accompanied by an increase in another variable (overall score) or a decrease in one variable is accompanied by a decrease in another variable. Exhibit 3: A Positive Relationship D Scores at Z Games 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 (40, 10) C (30, 8) B (20, 6) A (10, 4) 10 20 30 40 Practice Time per Week The graph shows an example of a positive relationship. The skaters who practiced the most scored the highest. When two variables move in different directions, there is a negative relationship between the two variables. When one variable rises, the other variable falls. A downward-sloping line, the demand curve, shows the different combinations of price and quantity purchased. The higher you go up on the vertical (price) axis, the smaller the quantity purchased on the horizontal axis, and the lower you go down along the vertical (price) axis, the greater the quantity purchased. Exhibit 4: Emily’s Demand Curve A Negative Relationship Price of CDs $25 20 15 10 5 0 Demand Curve (1, $25) A B (2, $20) C (3, $15) D The downward slope of the curve means that price and quantity are inversely, or negatively related. As price falls, quantity purchased increases and vice versa. (4, $10) E (5, $5) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Quantity of CDs Purchased Even when only two variables are shown on the axes, graphs can be used to show the relationship between three variables. For example, a rise in income may increase the quantity of CDs purchased at each possible price. This would shift the whole demand curve for CDs outward to a new position. Price of CDs Price of CDs Exhibit 5: Shifting a Curve D D D (with lower income) (with higher income) 0 Quantity of CDs Purchased D 0 Quantity of CDs Purchased It is important to remember the difference between a movement up and down along a curve and a shift in the whole curve. A change in one of the variables on the graph, like price or quantity purchased, will cause a movement along the curve. A change in one of the variables not shown, like income in our example, will cause the whole curve to shift. Exhibit 6: Shifts vs. Movements Price of CDs Going from Point A to B indicates movement along a demand curve. A B 0 D0 D1 Quantity of CDs Purchased Going from D0 to D1 is a shift. The slope, or steepness, of curves can be either positive (upward sloping) or negative (downward sloping). A curve that is downward sloping represents an inverse, or negative, relationship between the two variables. A curve that is upward sloping represents a direct, or positive relationship between the two variables. Exhibit 7: Downward-Sloping Linear Curves 25 20 Downward sloping 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 A downwardsloping curve represents a negative relationship between two variables. Exhibit 7: Upward-Sloping Linear Curves 25 20 15 Upward sloping 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 An upwardsloping curve represents a positive relationship between two variables. The slope of a linear curve between two points measures the relative rates of change of two variables. The slope of a linear curve can be defined as the ratio of the change in the Y value to the change in the X value, or the ratio of the rise to the run. Exhibit 8: Slopes of Positive and Negative Linear Curves 8 7 6 5 Positive 4 slope +1/2 B 3 A 1 Rise 2 2 Run 1 0 A 10 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 X-axis Y-axis Y-axis 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -8 Rise Negative slope -4 B +2 Run 1 2 3 4 5 6 X-axis Along a nonlinear curve, the slope varies from point to point. However, we can find the slope of such a curve at any point by finding the slope of the tangent to that curve at that point. Exhibit 9: The Slope of a Nonlinear Curve 5 Y-axis 4 Slope=0 B 3 A C 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 X-axis 5 6 7