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Market Cycles: Election Years Eric Lane Associate Manager, Finance Sector Disclaimer My…… political philosophy …… political history Why none of this matters A Brief History of Time How HAVE the markets performed during Presidential election years? S&P 500: 1/1999 – 12/2007 The 4-year Cycle: 1950-2004 Now onto the present…… 2008 – A Different Kind of Election The Iowa Electronic Market Democrat or Republican The Iowa Electronic Market Democrat Nomination Democrat President in 2008? Traditional Winners Metals Traditional Losers Oil and Gas Pharmaceuticals Insurance Providers Defense Trade Regulations Alternate Energy and Environmental Cleanup Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae Homebuilders Big Pharma PHLX Drug Index Big Oil PHLX Oil Services Index Barack Obama (D) Senator from Illinois Policy Platform Cracking down on mortgage fraud Helping homeowners avoid foreclosure Middle Class Tax Relief "Making Work Pay" credit American Opportunity Tax credit Retirement Security Health Care Reform Alternative Energy Hillary Clinton (D) Senator from New York Policy Platform Ending the foreclosure crisis Stimulus Package High-wage job growth Health Care Reform Leveling the Economic Playing Field Strategic Energy Fund Special Interest reform Health Care Trade John McCain (R) Senator from Arizona Policy Platform Pro-Growth Tax Policy Keep tax rate low Make permanent Bush income and investment tax cuts Cut the corporate tax rate Ban Internet and cell phone taxes Social Security and Medicare Trade Health Care Market-based energy reform The Best Option? Gridlock.
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