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10
Lost output, %
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
UK
Japan
Italy
Canada
US
Germany France
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-5
-3
-1
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1
3
5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-5
-3
-1
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1
3
5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-5
-3
-1
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1
3
5
35
30
Average earnings x employment, % y/ y
25
Nominal consumption, % y/ y
20
15
10
5
0
-5
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
12
200
Net mortgage lending, £bn (lhs)
10
180
Average house price, £k (rhs)
160
8
140
6
120
4
100
80
2
60
0
40
-2
20
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
20
15
10
5
0
Investment, % y/ y (lhs)
Credit, % y/ y (rhs)
-5
-10
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
16
14
Balance of respondents reporting
constrained access to credit
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Contribution of government consumption to y/ y GDP growth
-0.8
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
40
30
Versus the US dollar
Trade-weighted index
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1967
devaluation
IMF loan
ERM exit
-40
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
8
6
4
Outturns
PBR 09 projections
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1970–71
1980–81
1990–91
2000–01
2010–11