Download LIST OF CHARTS

TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
LIST OF CHARTS
Chart I.1. Annual Growth Rates in Selected Countries
1
Chart I.2. Growth Prospects for 2012
1
Chart I.3. Change in US Inflation, Unemployment and Fed Balance Sheet
2
Chart I.4. US Debt Limit and Public Debt Subject to Limit
2
Chart I.5. Possible Impact of Fiscal Cliff on 2013 Global Growth
2
Chart I.6. Primary Budget Balance in PIIGS Countries/GDP
3
Chart I.7. Bond Yield Spreads between Selected EU Countries and Germany
3
Chart I.8. The Prospective Effects of Various Policy Scenarios on GDP
4
Chart I.9. Prospective Downside Effects of Various Policy Scenarios on Credit Supply
4
Chart I.10. Total Liabilities of Eurozone Banks from PIIGS Countries
5
Chart I.11. Results of Bank Lending Surveys in the Euro area
5
Chart I.12. EURIBOR-OIS Spread
5
Chart I.13. Banking Sector Loans in Euro Area
5
Chart I.14. MSCI Equity and Commodity Index
6
Chart I.15. VIX Index
6
Chart I.16. Annual Growth in Developing Countries
6
Chart I.17. Inflation in Developing Countries
6
Chart I.18. Capital Flows to Developing Countries
7
Chart I.19. Receivables of Banks Reporting to BIS from BRIC Countries
7
Chart II.1. GDP and Its Components
10
Chart II.2. Imports and Exports of Goods and Services
10
Chart II.3. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
10
Chart II.4. 3-Month Ahead Expectations for Orders
10
Chart II.5. Foreign Trade Balance
11
Chart II.6. Current Account Balance
11
Chart II.7. Financing Structure of the Current Account Deficit
11
Chart II.8. Real Effective Exchange Rates
12
Chart II.9. Implied Volatility of Exchange Rates
12
Chart II.10. Primary Budget Balance
13
Financial Stability Report – November 2012 _____________________________________________________
71
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
Chart II.11. Budget Balance
13
Chart II.12. Central Government Debt Stock
14
Chart II.13. Composition of Domestic Debt Stock
14
Chart II.14. Average Cost of Domestic Borrowing
14
Chart II.15. Inflation
15
Chart II.16. 12 and 24 Month-Ahead CPI Expectations
15
Chart II.17. CBRT Weighted Average Funding Cost
16
Chart II.18. CBRT Policy Rates
16
Chart II.19. Annual Growth in Total Credits
16
Chart II.20. Loan Rates
16
Chart II.21. TL Reserve Requirements
17
Chart II.22. FX Reserve Requirements
17
Chart II.23. ROCs for FX Reserves that might be Held to Maintain TL Reserve Requirements
18
Chart II.24. ROCs for Gold Reserves that might be Held to Maintain TL Reserve Requirements
18
Chart II.25. TL Reserve Requirements
18
Chart II.26. FX Reserve Requirements
18
Chart II.27. CBRT Reserves
19
Chart II.28. CBRT Gold Reserves
19
Chart II.29. Financial Debt of Corporate Sector
20
Chart II.30. Composition of Financial Debt of Corporate Sector
20
Chart II.31. Breakdown of Corporate Sector’s External Loans by Type
20
Chart II.32. Breakdown of Corporate Sector’s External Loans by Regions
20
Chart II.33. Corporate Sector’s External Loans Due Within One Year
21
Chart II.34. Breakdown of Maturities of Corporate Sector’s External Financial Debts
21
Chart II.35. Non-Bank Sector’s Net FX Borrowings
21
Chart II.36. Non-Bank Sector External Debt Rollover Ratio
21
Chart II.37. Sales and Profitability of Firms by September 2012
22
Chart II.38. Foreign Exchange Position of the Corporate Sector
22
Chart II.39. FX Assets to FX Liabilities Ratio of the Corporate Sector
22
Chart II.40. Real Growth of Household Consumption and Annual Change in Consumer Confidence
Index
23
______________________________________________________ Financial Stability Report – November 2012
72
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
Chart II.41. Breakdown of Household Consumption Expenditures
23
Chart II.42. Annual Growth of Vehicle Loans and Annual Change in Automobile Sales
24
Chart II.43. Annual Growth of Housing Loans, Number of Houses sold and Building Occupancy
24
Permits
24
Chart II.44. Annual Change in House Price Index in Real Terms
24
Chart II.45. Annual Nominal Change in House Prices in Selected Countries
24
Chart II.46. Expenditures by Debit and Credit Cards and Resident Household Consumption
25
Chart II.47. Credit Card Balances of Deposit Banks and Balances that Incur Interest Charges
25
Chart II.48. Household Liabilities
25
Chart II.49. Ratio of Household Liabilities to Disposable Income and GDP in Selected EU Countries
26
Chart II.50. FX-Indexed Consumer and Housing Loans
26
Chart II.51. The Composition of Household Liabilities and NPL Ratios by Type
27
Chart II.52. Saving Rates
28
Chart II.53. Household Expenditures, Disposable Income and Saving Rates
28
Chart II.54. Household Saving Rates in Selected Countries
28
Chart II.55. Household Saving Rates as per Income Quintiles
28
Chart II.56. Financial Condition of Indebted Households
29
Chart II.57. Probability of Household Borrowing and Saving
29
Chart II.58. Distribution of Borrowers According to Occupation and Income
30
Chart II.59. Household Financial Assets and Liabilities
30
Chart II.60. Real Return on Financial Investment Instruments by Types
31
Chart II.61. Ratio of Household TL Investment Instruments to FX Investment Instruments
31
Chart II.62. Selected Indicators for the Labor Market
32
Chart II.63. Average Annual Growth Rate of Employment in Selected Countries
32
Chart II.64. Turkey’s FX Position
33
Chart III.1. Balance Sheet Size of the Financial Sector
35
Chart III.2. Development of the Banking Sector
35
Chart III.3. Concentration of the Turkish Banking Sector
36
Chart III.4. Composition of Banking Sector Assets by Structure of Ownership
36
Chart III.5. Asset Structure of the Banking Sector
37
Financial Stability Report – November 2012 _____________________________________________________
73
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
Chart III.6. Liability Structure of the Banking Sector
37
Chart III.7. Credit Growth / GDP
38
Chart III.8. Annual Change in Credits
38
Chart III.9. Annual Growth in Loans
38
Chart III.10. Development of Loans Adjusted for Exchange Rate Effect
38
Chart III.11. Development of Retail Loans Adjusted for Exchange Rate Effect
39
Chart III.12. Development of Corporate Loans Adjusted for Exchange Rate Effect
39
Chart III.13. Development of Loans by Type
42
Chart III.14. Contribution of Types of Loans to Credit Growth
42
Chart III.15. Breakdown of Total Loans
42
Chart III.16. Breakdown of Consumer Loans
42
Chart III.17. Maturity and Currency Composition of Loans
43
Chart III.18. FX Loans
43
Chart III.19. Interest Rate on Consumer Loans
43
Chart III.20. Interest Rates on Corporate Loans and Deposits
43
Chart III.21. Loan and Deposit Growth/GDP
44
Chart III.22. Deposits, Repo, Due to Banks and Equities
44
Chart III.23. Deposits
44
Chart III.24. Maturity of Deposits
44
Chart III.25. Maturity of TL Deposits
45
Chart III.26. Maturity of FX Deposits
45
Chart III.27. Foreign Liabilities of Banks
46
Chart III.28. External Debt Rollover Ratio of Banks
46
Chart III.29. Composition of Foreign Liabilities
46
Chart III.30. Average Maturity of Foreign Liabilities
46
Chart III.31. Private Sector Debt Instruments
47
Chart III.32. Private Sector Debt Instruments by Investors
47
Chart III.33. Private Sector Debt Instruments by Investors
47
Chart III.34. Banking Sector Leverage Ratio
48
Chart III.35. CBRT Weighted Average Funding Cost
49
Chart III.36. CBRT and Secondary Market Interest Rates
49
______________________________________________________ Financial Stability Report – November 2012
74
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
Chart III.37. Liquid Assets
50
Chart III.38. Total Liquidity Adequacy Ratio
50
Chart III.39. Total Securities Eligible for the CBRT as Collateral
50
Chart III.40. The Ratio of Free Government Securities to Liabilities
50
Chart III.41. FX Liquidity Adequacy Ratio
51
Chart III.42. FX Position
51
Chart III.43. Non-Performing Loans
52
Chart III.44. NPL Ratio and Bad Cheque Ratio
52
Chart III.45. NPL Ratios1 and Net NPL/Capital Ratios by Countries
53
Chart III.46. Return on Assets, Return on Equity and Benchmark Interest Rate
54
Chart III.47. The Ratio of Sources on Income and Special Provisions for Non-Performing Loans to
Average Assets
54
Chart III.48. Return on Equity and Return on Assets by Countries
54
Chart III.49. Capital Adequacy Ratio
55
Chart III.50. Ratio of Equity to Total Assets
55
Chart III.51. Capital Adequacy Ratio, Tier 1 Capital Ratio and Ratio of Equity to Total Assets by
Countries
55
Chart III.52. Composition of Total Risk Exposure
56
Chart III.53. Developments in Free Capital
56
Chart III.54. Results of Scenario Analysis
57
Chart III.55. CAR, NPL Ratio and Loan Growth of Banking Sector Under the Scenario Analysis
58
Chart III.56. Financial Strength Index
59
Chart III.57. Banking Sector Stability Map
59
Chart IV.1.1. FX ROC
61
Chart IV.1.2. Gold ROC
61
Chart IV.1.3. Utilization FX ROM Across Tranches
62
Chart IV.1.4. Utilization Gold ROM Across Tranches
62
Chart IV.1.5. CBRT Reserves and RR-ROM
64
Chart IV.1.6. Share of FX YP Liquid Assets on Balance Sheet
64
Chart IV.1.7. TL Borrowing Swap and FX for ROM
64
Chart IV.2.1. Average Interest Margin
66
Financial Stability Report – November 2012 _____________________________________________________
75
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
LIST OF TABLES
Table I.1 Fed’s Policy Decisions
2
Table II.1. Main Indicators Related To Public Finance
14
Table II.2. Return on Equity and Its Components
22
Table II.3. Selected Financial Indicators Pertaining to Households
25
Table II.4. Number of Credit Card and Consumer Loan Defaulters
27
Table II.5. Household Financial Assets
30
Table III.1. Comparison of the Selected Financial Indicators with the EU Countries
37
Table III.2. Bond and Bill Issues by Banks
48
Table III.3. Bond and Bill Issues by Non-Bank Private Sector
48
Table III.4. NPL Ratios
52
Table III.5. Default Rates by Sectors
52
Table III.6 Scenarios Applied
57
Table IV.1.1. Asset- Liability Change from September 2011 to September 2012
63
Table IV.2.1. Variables and Descriptions
67
Table IV.2.2. Interest Margin Model Results
69
______________________________________________________ Financial Stability Report – November 2012
76
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
LIST OF BOXES
Box III.1. Bank Lending Surveys
39
Box III.2. CBRT’s Short-term Liquidity Measures
49
Box III.3. Quantitative Impact Study on Basel III
56
Financial Stability Report – November 2012 _____________________________________________________
77
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
ABBREVIATIONS
ACMIIT :
The Association of Capital Market Intermediary Institutions of Turkey
AFI
Alliance for Financial Inclusion
:
AIRCT :
The Association of the Insurance and Reinsurance Companies of Turkey
ATM
:
Automated Teller Machine
BCBS
:
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BIS
:
Bank for International Settlements
BoE
:
Bank of England
BoJ
:
Bank of Japan
BRIC
:
Brazil, Russia, India, China
BRSA
:
Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency
CAR
:
Capital Adequacy Ratio
CBRT
:
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
CCPs
:
Central Counterparties
CDS
:
Credit Default Swap
CEE
:
Central and Eastern European
CGAP
:
Consultative Group to Assist the Poor
CGFS
:
Committee on the Global Financial System
CMB
:
Capital Markets Board
CPI
:
Consumer Price Index
CPIS
:
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey
CPSS
:
Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems
CRA
:
Central Registry Agency
CSD
:
Central Securities Depository
DvP
:
Delivery versus Payment
EBA
:
European Banking Authority
ECB
:
European Central Bank
EMBI
:
Emerging Markets Bond Index
EU
:
European Union
EURIBOR:
Euro Interbank Offered Rate
Fed
Federal Reserve System
:
______________________________________________________ Financial Stability Report – November 2012
78
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
FMI
:
Financial Market Infrastructure
FSB
:
Financial Stability Board
FSC
:
Financial Stability Committee
FSI
:
Financial Strength Index
FSI
:
Financial Strength Indicators
FX
:
Foreign Exchange
G-20
:
Group of Twenty
G-SIFI :
Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions
GDDS
:
Government Domestic Debt Securities
GDP
:
Gross Domestic Product
GPFI
:
Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion
IAG
:
Interagency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics
IBS
:
International Banking Statistics
ICC
:
Interbank Card Center
ICH
:
Interbank Cheque Clearing Houses Center
IFC
:
International Finance Corporation
IFS
:
IMF International Financial Statistics
IMF
:
International Monetary Fund
INFE
:
International Network on Financial Education
IOSCO :
International Organization of Securities Commissions
ISE
Istanbul Stock Exchange
:
LIBOR :
London Interbank Offered Rate
MMF
:
Money Market Funds
MPC
:
Monetary Policy Committee
MTP
:
Medium Term Program
NACE
:
Statistical Classification of Economic Activities
NFC
:
Near Field Communication
NPL
:
Non-performing Loan
ODD
:
Automotive Distributors Association
OECD
:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OTC
:
Over the Counter (Markets)
Financial Stability Report – November 2012 _____________________________________________________
79
TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI
PDP
:
Public Disclosure Platform
PEPS
:
Public Electronic Payment System
PGI
:
Principal Global Indicators
POS
:
Point of Sale
PPI
:
Producer Price Index
PvP
:
Payment versus Payment
QIS
:
Quantitative Impact Study
RRR
:
Required Reserves Ratios
RTGS
:
Real Time Gross Settlement
SDDS
:
Systemic Data Dissemination Standards
SDIF
:
Savings Deposit Insurance Fund
SIFI
:
Systemically Important Financial Institution
SME
:
Small and Medium Size Enterprise
SSS
:
Securities Settlement System
TBB
:
Banks Association of Turkey
TIC-ESTS:
Turkish Interbank Clearing-Electronic Securities Transfer and Settlement
TIC-RTGS:
Turkish Interbank Clearing-Real Time Gross Settlement
TL
:
Turkish Lira
TMM
:
Takasbank Money Market
TOKI
:
Housing Development Administration of Turkey
TR
:
Trade Repositories
TRAB
:
Turkish Republic Agriculture Bank
TURKDEX:
Turkish Derivatives Exchange
TURKSTAT:
Turkish Statistical Institute
UK
United Kingdom
:
UNSGSA:
United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Advocate
USA
:
United States of America
USD
:
United States Dollar
VaR
:
Value at Risk
VAT
:
Value Added Tax
WEO
:
World Economic Outlook
______________________________________________________ Financial Stability Report – November 2012
80