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TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI LIST OF CHARTS Chart I.1. Debt Stock and Budget Deficit in Some Countries 1 Chart I.2. CDS in PIIGS Countries 1 Chart I.3. Net Receivables of International Banks from Certain Countries 2 Chart I.4. Liquidity Provided by the ECB to Banks 2 Chart I.5. Debts of PIIGS Banks Maturing in 2011-12 2 Chart I.6. Policy Rates in Advanced Economies 3 Chart I.7. Balance Sheet Aggregates and Inflation Rates of Central Banks of Advanced Economies 3 Chart I.8. Bond Yields in Advanced Economies 3 Chart I.9. Asset Market Indicators 3 Chart I.10. Growth Rates in Advanced Economies 4 Chart I.11. Unemployment Rates in Advanced Economies 4 Chart I.12. Development of Credits in the US Banking Sector 4 Chart I.13. Development of Credits in the Euro Area Banking Sector 4 Chart I.14. Flow of Funds towards Emerging Economies 5 Chart I.15. Capital Flows Towards Emerging Economies by Type and REER 5 Chart I.16. Change in Policy Rates in Emerging Economies 6 Chart I.17. Change in Reserve Requirement Ratios in Emerging Economies and Their Level 6 Chart I.18. Credit Growth in Emerging Economies 6 Chart I.19. Current Account Balance and Official Reserve Changes in Emerging Economies 6 Chart I.20. Output Gap and Annual Credit Growth Rate in Emerging Economies 7 Chart I.21. Inflation Rates in Country Groups 7 Chart II.1. GDP and Its Components 10 Chart II.2. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 10 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 93 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI Chart II.3. GDP and Its Trend 10 Chart II.4. Seasonally Adjusted Capacity Utilization Rate 10 Chart II.5. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 11 Chart II.6. Inflation 11 Chart II.7. Foreign Trade Balance 11 Chart II.8. Current Account Balance 11 Chart II.9. Financing Structure of the Current Account Deficit 12 Chart II.10. Development of Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit 13 Chart II.11. Credit Volatility and Average Credit Growth Rate by Countries 13 Chart II.12. Reserve Requirement Ratios 13 Chart II.13. CBRT Interest Rates 14 Chart II.14. Overnight Interest Rates 14 Chart II.15. Weighted Average Maturity of TL Deposits and FX Deposit Accounts 14 Chart II.16. Savings Deposits Yield Curve 14 Chart II.17. Primary Budget Balance 15 Chart II.18. Budget Balance 15 Chart II.19. Central Government Debt Stock 16 Chart II.20. Composition of Domestic Debt Stock 16 Chart II.21. Treasury Discounted Auction Interest Rate 16 Chart II.22. Eurobond Interest Rates 16 Chart II.23. Financial Debt of Corporate Sector 17 Chart II.24. Composition of Financial Debt 17 Chart II.25. Non-Bank Sector Net FX Borrowing 18 Chart II.26. Non-Bank Sector External Debt Rollover Ratio 18 ________________________________________________________ 94 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI Chart II.27. Sales and Profitability of Firms by March 2011 18 Chart II.28. Foreign Exchange Position of the Corporate Sector 19 Chart II.29. FX Assets to FX Liabilities of the Corporate Sector 19 Chart II.30. Household Liabilities 19 Chart II.31. Decomposition of Household Liabilities 20 Chart II.32. Credit Card Balances of Deposit Banks and Balances that Incur Interest Charge 20 Chart II.33 Expenditures by Bank and Credit Cards and Consumption of Resident Households 21 Chart II.34. FX-Indexed Consumer Loans and FX-Indexed Housing Loans 21 Chart II.35. Household Financial Assets and Liabilities 21 Chart II.36. Ratio of Household TL Investment Instruments to FX Investment Instruments 22 Chart III.1. Balance Sheet Size of the Financial Sector 25 Chart III.2. Development of the Banking Sector 25 Chart III.3. Loans and Deposit Growth / GDP 26 Chart III.4. Capital Inflow and Loans 26 Chart III.5. Credit Developments 27 Chart III.6. Credit Standards and Credit Demand in the Euro Area 27 Chart III.7. Credit Developments 27 Chart III.8. Real Increase in Credits by Type and Their Contribution to Growth 27 Chart III.9. Credit Developments in the First Quarter 28 Chart III.10. Bank Loans’ Tendency Survey 29 Chart III.11. Interest Rates on Consumer Loans 29 Chart III.12. Interest Rates on Deposits and Corporate Loans 29 Chart III.13. Distribution of Total Loans 30 Chart III.14. Distribution of Consumer Loans 30 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 95 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI Chart III.15. Currency and Maturity Composition of Loans 31 Chart III.16. FX Loans 31 Chart III.17. Loans and Securities 31 Chart III.18. Funds Obtained from Deposits, Repo Transactions and Due to Banks 31 Chart III.19. Loan / Deposit and Foreign Liabilities 32 Chart III.20. Deposit and Foreign Liabilities 32 Chart III.21. Composition of Foreign Liabilities 32 Chart III.22. Distribution of Foreign Liabilities and Average Maturities 32 Chart III.23 Fund Liquidity and Market Liquidity Index 33 Chart III.24 Non-core Funding Resources 33 Chart III.25. Liquid Assets 34 Chart III.26. Total Liquidity Adequacy Ratio 34 Chart III.27 Results of the Stress Test 34 Chart III.28. Foreign Currency Liquidity Adequacy Ratio 35 Chart III.29. Foreign Currency Position 35 Chart III.30 Non-Performing Loans 37 Chart III.31 Ratio of NPLs and Net NPL / Own Funds of Selected Countries 37 Chart III.32 Return on Equity and Risk-Free Interest Rate 38 Chart III.33 Return on Assets and Net Interest Margin 38 Chart III.34. Return on Equity and Return on Assets of Selected Countries 38 Chart III.35 Capital Adequacy Ratio 39 Chart III.36 Ratio of Own Funds to Total Assets 39 Chart III.37 Capital Adequacy Ratios for Selected Countries 39 Chart III.38 Ratio of Own Funds to Total Assets for Selected Countries 39 ________________________________________________________ 96 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI Chart III.39. Composition of Total Risk Exposure 40 Chart III.40. Developments in Free Capital 40 Chart III.41 Results of Scenario Analysis 40 Chart III.42. Financial Strength Index 41 Chart III.43. Banking Sector Stability Map 41 Chart IV.1. Number and Amount of the Annual Transactions in the TIC-RTGS System 44 Chart IV.2. Number and Amount of the Annual DvP Transactions in the TIC-ESTS System 44 Chart IV.3. Concentration of Payments by Hours and Value of Transactions in the TIC-RTGS System 44 Chart IV.4. Concentration Ratio in the TIC-RTGS System 46 Chart IV.5. Accessibility Ratio within the TIC-RTGS-ESTS System 46 Chart IV.6. Volume and Value of Cheques Transacted in ICH 48 Chart IV. 7. Settlement Hours of the Cheque Clearance System – 2010 50 Chart IV.8. Number of Debit Cards and Credit Cards 50 Chart IV.9. Number of ATM-POS 50 Chart IV.10. Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions 51 Chart IV.11. Volume and Value of Debit Card Transactions 51 Chart IV.12. Volume and Value of Credit Cards Processed in the Card Clearing System 51 Chart IV.13. Volume and Value of Debit Cards Processed in the Card Clearing System 51 Chart IV.14. Ratio of Value of Credit Card Transactions Subject to Clearing Process to Total Value of Credit Card Transactions 52 Chart IV.15. ISE Stock Markets Transaction Value 53 Chart IV.16. ISE Bonds and Bill Markets Transaction Value 53 Chart V.1.1. Real Credit Growth Rate of Some Advanced Economies 55 Chart V.1.2. Real Credit Growth Rate of Some Emerging Economies 55 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 97 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI Chart V.1.3. Loan/GDP Ratio of Some Advanced Economies 56 Chart V.1.4. Loan/GDP Ratio of Some Emerging Economies 56 Chart V.1.5. Variance of Real Credit Growth Rate of Some Advanced Economies 56 Chart V.1.6. Variance of Real Credit Growth Rate of Some Emerging Economies 56 Chart V.2.1. Scenario Outputs for the Banking Sector - CAR, NPL Ratio and Loan Growth 60 Chart V.3.1. Non-core Funding Resources 62 Chart V.3.2. Non-core Funding Resources 62 Chart V.5.1. The Number and Amount of Sukuk Issued 68 Chart V.5.2. Currency Unit of the Sukuk Issued 68 Chart V.5.3. Growth of Assets, Loans and Deposits of Participation Banks 69 Chart V.5.4. Growth in the Number of Branches and Staff of Participation Banks 69 Chart V.6.1. Breakdown of Turkish lira Deposits/Participation Accounts by Maturities 71 Chart V.6.2. Breakdown of FX Deposits/Participation Accounts by Maturities 71 Chart V.6.3. Weighted Average Maturity of Turkish lira Deposits/Participation Accounts 72 Chart V.6.4. Weighted Average Maturity of FX Deposits/Participation Accounts 72 ________________________________________________________ 98 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI LIST OF TABLES Table I.1. PIIGS Countries Receiving Fiscal Stimulus 2 Table II.1. Return on Equity and Its Components 18 Table II.2. Ratio of Household Disposable Income, Liabilities and Interest Payments 19 Table II.3. Number of Credit Card and Consumer Loan Defaulters 21 Table II.4. Composition of Household Financial Assets 22 Table III.1. Assumptions 34 Table III.2. NPL Ratio 37 Table III.3. Scenarios Applied 40 Table IV.1. Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) Country Comparison 45 Table IV.2. Number and Value of Transactions and Daily Averages within the TIC-RTGS System 46 Table IV.3. Distribution of the Number of Cheques Subject to Clearing According to Tranches 49 Table IV.4. Cheque Clearance System-Netting Ratio 49 Table IV.5. Card Clearance and Settlement System / Netting Ratio 52 Table IV.6. Netting Ratio regarding the Clearance of the Securities Traded at the ISE 54 Table IV.7. Information on the accounts of the Members of TURKDEX at Takasbank 54 Table V.2.1. Variables Used in Satellite Models 58 Table V.3.1. Classification of Core and Non-Core Balance Sheet Liabilities 61 Table V.7.1. Developments Regarding Bill and Bond Issues of Deposit Banks 74 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 99 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI LIST OF BOXES Box III.1. Liquidity Measures taken by the Central Bank of Turkey 35 Box IV.1. Developments in IBAN Application 47 ________________________________________________________ 100 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI ABBREVIATIONS ACMIIT : The Association of Capital Market Intermediary Institutions of Turkey AIRCT : The Association of the Insurance and Reinsurance Companies of Turkey ASF : Available Stable Fund ATM : Automated Teller Machines BB : Bundesbank BDF : Banque de France BE : Belgium BIS : Bank for International Settlements BoE : Bank of England BoJ : Bank of Japan BRSA : Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency CAR : Capital Adequacy Ratio CBRT : Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey CCPs : Central Counterparties CCS : Cross Currency Swap CDS : Credit Default Swap CEBS : Committee of European Banking Supervisors CEIOPS : Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors CMB : Capital Markets Board CPI : Consumer Price Index CPSS : Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems CRA : Central Registry Agency DvP : Delivery versus Payment Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 101 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI EA : Euro Area EAD : Exposure at Default EBA : European Banking Authority ECB : European Central Bank EFSF : European Stability Fund EFSM : European Financial Stability Mechanism EFT : Electronic Fund Transfer System EIOPA : European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority EL : Expected Loan Loss ESAs : European Supervisory Authority ESFS : European System of Financial Supervisors ESMA : European Securities and Markets Authority ESRB : European Systemic Risk Board ESTS : Electronic Securities Transfer and Settlement System EU : European Union FCA : Financial Conduct Authority FDIC : Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fed : Federal Reserve System FMI : Financial Market Infrastructures FPC : Financial Policy Committee FSA : Financial Services Authority FSAP : Financial Sector Assessment Program FSB : Financial Stability Board FSMA : Financial Services and Markets Authority ________________________________________________________ 102 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI FSOC : Financial Stability Oversight Committee FSI : Financial Strength Index FSSF : Financial System Stability Forum FX : Foreign Exchange GDDS : Government Domestic Debt Securities GDP : Gross Domestic Product GS : Goldman Sachs IBAN : International Bank Account Number ICC : Interbank Card Center ICH : Interbank Clearing Houses Center IFIS : Islamic Finance Information Service IFS : IMF International Financial Statistics IIF : International Finance Institute IILM : International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation IOSCO : International Organization of Securities Commissions IMF : International Monetary Fund ISE : Istanbul Stock Exchange LCR : Liquidity Coverage Ratio LGD : Loss Given Default M2 : Money Supply (2) MENA : Middle East and North Africa NL : Netherlands NPL : Non-performing Loans NSFR : Net Stable Funding Ratio Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 103 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI OCC : Office of the Comptroller of the Currency OTC : Over the Counter (Markets) PD : Probability of Default PDP : Public Disclosure Platform PIIGS : Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain POS : Point of Sale Devices PRA : Prudential Regulation Authority RIB : Revenue-indexed Bonds RR : Reserve Requirements RTGS : Real Time Gross Settlement RWA : Risk Weighted Assets SDIF : Savings Deposit Insurance Fund SIC : Swiss Interbank Clearing SME : Small and Medium Size Enterprise SPO : State Planning Organization TETS : ISE Settlement and Custody Bank Electronic Transfer System TIC : Turkish Interbank Clearing TKBB : The Participation Banks Association of Turkey TL : Turkish Lira TOKI : Housing Development Administration of Turkey Turkdex: Turkish Derivatives Exchange TurkStat: Turkish Statistical Institute UK : United Kingdom USA : United States of America ________________________________________________________ 104 Financial Stability Report – May 2011 TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYET MERKEZ BANKASI USD : United States Dollars VIX : Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index Financial Stability Report – May 2011 ________________________________________________________ 105