Download 2013-IV

2013-IV
Contents
1.
OVERVIEW
1.1. Monetary Policy and Monetary Conditions
1.2. Macroeconomic Developments and Main Assumptions
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1
2
6
1.3. Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook
10
1.4. Risks and Monetary Policy
11
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
15
2.1. Global Growth
15
2.2. Commodity Prices
18
2.3. Global Inflation
20
2.4. Financial Conditions and Risk Indicators
22
2.5. Capital Flows
24
2.6. Global Monetary Policy Developments
26
INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS
33
3.1. Inflation
33
3.2. Expectations
42
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DEVELOPMENTS
45
4.1. Gross Domestic Product Developments and Domestic Demand
46
4.2. External Demand
50
4.3. Labor Market
53
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
73
5.1. Financial Markets
73
5.2. Credit Volume and Monetary Indicators
87
PUBLIC FINANCE
105
6.1. Budget Developments
106
6.2. Developments in the Public Debt Stock
110
MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTS
115
7.1. Current State, Short-Term Outlook and Assumptions
115
7.2. Medium-Term Outlook
118
7.3. Risks and Monetary Policy
121
BOXES
Box 1.1. Money Markets and the CBRT
13
Box 2.1. Forward Guidance in Monetary Policy Communication
30
Box 3.1. Import Prices and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the CPI and Subcategories
43
Box 4.1. Impact of Bridge Days on the Industrial Production Index
59
Box 4.2. Contribution of Public Expenditures to GDP Growth
62
Box 4.3. Degree of Rigidity in Residential Rents in Turkey
64
Box 4.4.The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey
68
Box 5.1. The Effectiveness of Macroprudential Measures in Moderating Volatile Capital Flows:
The Case of Turkey
94
Box 5.2. Carry Trade Returns
100
Box 6.1. Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Real Exchange Rate and External Trade Deficit
112