Download King’s Commission on London The Policy Institute at King’s College London

King’s Commission on London
The Policy Institute at King’s College London
February 2016
About the Policy Institute at King’s
The Policy Institute at King’s College London acts as a hub, linking insightful
research with rapid, relevant policy analysis to stimulate debate, inform and
shape policy agendas. Building on King’s central London location at the heart
of the global policy conversation, our vision is to enable the translation of
academic research into policy and practice by facilitating engagement between
academic, business and policy communities around current and future policy
needs, both in the UK and globally. We combine the academic excellence of
King’s with the connectedness of a think tank and the professionalism of a
consultancy.
Summary
The Policy Institute at King’s College London has established a new twoyear research project on the future challenges and issues facing London
and their possible solutions, covering the economic, social, cultural and
governmental aspects. The project will take a longer term, 10-15 year
perspective. The main planned outcome will be a single publication setting
out the results of this work, expected in 2017. This project, entitled The
King’s Commission on London, will be directed by Tony Halmos, former
Director of Public Relations for the City of London Corporation.
The work of the Commission will be overseen and shaped by a panel of high
profile figures from academia, business and policy. The panel will be chaired
by former Cabinet Minister and current Chair of the National Infrastructure
Commission, Lord Adonis, supported by members drawn from King’s and
other academic institutions and relevant organisations.
We are actively looking to collaborate with a variety of organisations, both
to help shape the project, as well as to be core sponsors of the work. We are
delighted that the City of London Corporation has already agreed to be one of
the sponsors of the work of the Commission.
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The overall plan for the
Commission
The King’s Commission on London will analyse some of the principle issues
facing London that may threaten its status as a world class city or enhance
its future growth and potential. In order to do so, the Commission will not
only articulate the nature and scale of these challenges, but also derive a
range of viable, evidence-informed policy solutions.
It will examine the likely shape of London’s economy in the next decade
and evaluate what London will need to do to ensure its continued economic
success. However, London faces challenges that go beyond – and perhaps
have greater ramifications than – its economic prospects. London faces
genuine problems in health, the environment, education, housing, transport,
telecommunications, planning and property, and culture.
Ambitious in scope and depth, in order to undertake this work we plan to
commission relevant research from specialist academics within King’s and from
other academic institutions, as well as from think tanks working in this area especially those with a London-specific brief, such as the Centre for London
and the new arm of Policy Exchange, Capital City Foundation. Our aim is to
draw widely in the thinking of the Commission and avoid duplication with
work being undertaken elsewhere.   
The publication of a final comprehensive report on all the main issues will be
informed by a series of papers, discussed and developed by relevant experts at
roundtable seminars, conferences and other events, as the work proceeds. This
will enable the work to be undertaken in a collaborative nature.
We anticipate that the other members of the Commission, in addition to the
Chair, Lord Adonis, will be drawn from those within King’s who are carrying
out work for the project, together with academics from other institutions who
have been invited to collaborate on parts of the Commission’s work. We also
plan to invite think tanks who carry out work in the relevant areas.
The King’s Commission on London has been established within the Policy
Institute at King’s and, although it will be provided with internal resources
from both the Policy Institute and King’s more widely, it will also need
external funding in order to carry out and complete its work. Including the
overall management of the Commission, as well as various events and other
individual activities.
A variety of organisations are being approached to become core sponsors of the
project, enabling them to play an active role in shaping the work, delivering
evidence-based research to help assist policymakers in the informed longerterm formulation of policy for London.
Leading thinkers (from academia, policy think tanks or commercial
consultancies) will be commissioned to write short reports to a pre-set
template that sets out: a) historical precedents of the policy domain; b) existing
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opportunities and threats; and c) three options for 10-15 years’ time horizon in
terms of policy formulation, in order to maximise opportunities and mitigate
threats. Each of these reports will initially form the basis of a ‘roundtable’
workshop that will occur over half a day and allow a broad set of stakeholders
to comment on and shape the analysis.  The lead author will then be asked to
finalise the draft paper following the roundtable and the various reports will be
edited into a single volume for publication.   
The Policy Institute will deploy its resources to ensure appropriate social
media and other engagements are developed around each report/event and
to facilitate other activities (such as public debates, Twitter Q&As, etc.).
Significant effort and resources will also be invested in relationship building
and overall positioning to ensure that there is a significant capacity, amongst
the potential recipients, for the ideas generated, thereby increasing its likely
long term impact.
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The focus of the King’s
Commission on London
The Commission will be organised around different policy areas (described
below with examples of what could be covered in each). There are a range
of topics that the project could cover, and one of the first tasks will be to
discuss and agree these with the panel.
Commerce
1.
Changing structure of the economy and the labour force
The structure of London’s economy has undergone dramatic changes over
the last 50 years. In 1961 London was still a major manufacturing city and
manufacturing employed a third of the workforce. The docks were still
a large employer. Both of these sectors have since largely dissipated: the
manufacturing industry now employs just over 3 per cent of the labour force.
By comparison, finance and business services (broadly defined) now employ
over a third of the labour force. This raises many questions about how to
keep this sector thriving and successful, including the implications for labour
demand and skill levels. While London attracts a high proportion of graduates
and has a highly educated labour force, it also has a high proportion of young
people from less advantaged socio-economic backgrounds who face numerous
barriers to accessing higher education and, ultimately, future employment.
This also has implications and links with immigration and the changing ethnic
composition of London. Although it is worth noting the growing prevalence
of ‘tech’ start-up companies, particularly in east London, manufacturing is
unlikely to reoccupy its former primacy. The key questions, therefore, include
the dominance and stability of financial services and related business services,
particularly given the growing competition from Singapore, Hong Kong and
Shanghai, as well as the continued challenge from New York.
2.
Population, immigration and ethnic change
The population of London fell steadily from 1939 to 1991. It then began to
rise and has risen from a low of 6.5 million in 1991 to over 8.6 million today.
Much of this growth has been driven by immigration (both of skilled workers,
and less skilled workers and dependents) and subsequent changes in birth
rates. The result is that London has become an increasingly diverse city with
over a third of the population born abroad and over 40 per cent from ethnic
minorities.
The growth in population has given rise to a number of challenges. First,
and foremost, there is the problem of housing costs and availability as more
people compete for a relatively static supply of housing. Second, London
has a shortage of school places as numbers of births and school-age children
rise. Third, population growth is generating increasing pressure on both the
transport system and the health system. In addition, the changing ethnic
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composition of London has important implications in terms of educational
attainment and labour market participation. While some groups have been
very successful in terms of educational attainment and labour market position,
others have been much less so.
3.
Poverty, inequality and welfare
Despite being one of the richest cities in Europe, London still has significant
groups of people who are economically inactive, unemployed, working on low
incomes and receiving a variety of welfare payments. Many are struggling to
get by. This is a particular problem with the high cost of housing and transport
in the capital. Individual households are in receipt of a wide range of benefits
including child benefit and pensions, job seekers’ allowance, disability or
incapacity benefits, housing benefits and council tax benefit.
Some benefits are very important in London, notably housing benefit which
accounts for £6 billion a year in London alone: 25 per cent of the total national
bill. This is a direct result of high rents in London and a large number of
households that claim this benefit in London have been disproportionately
affected by the housing benefit cap and overall welfare benefit cap. These
trends are having the effect of squeezing some low income households out of
London altogether and raise key questions about where the poor could and
should live in London today.
4.
Development and planning
Development, planning, architecture and design are huge issues in today’s
rapidly changing London. The questions of developing brownfield sites,
especially for housing, issues surrounding the greenbelt, the planning
procedures – including the degree of devolution to London and the relationship
between the Mayor and the boroughs– are all part of the debates about
appropriate urban design and architecture suitable for a world class city in the
21st century. There are also a number of issues concerning availability of sites
for development – both commercially and for housing – determining what type
of developments would best fit the needs of the coming decades and making
sure that the current planning and related procedures are fit for purpose.
Community
5.Education
Education is of growing importance in the modern world. It is no longer
possible to leave school at 16 and get a worthwhile job with minimal
qualifications. London’s rapidly evolving economy requires a constantly
changing set of increasingly advanced skills, without which London’s residents
risk being left behind in an increasingly competitive job market. If London is
to retain its position as a leading finance and business centre, it needs to ensure
that it has an appropriately skilled labour force. London is unusual in that it
has a rather bifurcated structure of educational attainment with a significant
proportion of low achievers and a high proportion of graduates – the highest in
Britain.
London had a problem of low educational attainment but now, largely because
of parts of its ethnic minority population, it has one of the highest in Britain.
Nonetheless, there are major disparities in educational access and attainment.
This theme would look at the question of how to improve educational
standards and attainment across the board, but particularly for disadvantaged
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groups and in light of recent changes in ‘inner city’ schooling such as the
Academies programme and significant investments in poor performing schools.
6.Housing
Housing is a key issue in London today. Prices have long been higher in
London than elsewhere, but prices and rents have risen strongly over the
last 15 years, notwithstanding the financial crisis. As a result, house price to
income ratios are higher in London than almost anywhere else in Britain, and
affordability has become a large and growing problem. With average prices
over £450,000 against average family incomes of £35,000, the result is that
many young households are effectively excluded from the owner occupied
market and, given the decline in social renting, are forced into private renting.
London always had a long history of private renting, but this tenure went into
decline after the war and social housing grew to become the largest tenure
in inner London by 1981. In several boroughs it took over 50 per cent of all
households. Since then it has been in long term decline, partly as a result of
right-to-buy and buy-to-let policies.
London has become a popular destination for global investors seeking a safe
haven for their money, an attractive place to live, and a good return on their
investment. Unfortunately, the type of housing often being built currently is
not the type of housing needed for lower and middle income groups. London
urgently needs to address the question of how to provide significant quantities
of affordable housing to enable key workers such as teachers, tube-drivers,
nurses and police officers, and others on modest incomes to live in the city.
New towns outside London (and the implication of those for London) and new
financing models could provide solutions but also pose challenges.
7.
Health and wellbeing
Health is crucial for the inhabitants of any city. It is also crucial to ensure
that London has an efficient and functioning health system which can deal
effectively with a variety of needs. This has to go beyond GPs and hospitals to
a range of advisory care services. It also has to try to address the fundamental
inequalities in health between the richer and poorer areas of the city. Every
stop east of Waterloo on the Jubilee Line finds one year shorter life expectancy.
In addition, new attention needs to be paid to mental health issues across the
capital: is the rise in stress levels and its impact on health properly recognised?
Are the mental health facilities and provision what Londoners need?
8.
Pollution, air and water quality
Today, London tends to take its air quality for granted but the London smogs
of the 1950s were akin to the problems facing Beijing today. These were partly
solved in London by the Clean Air Act 1956. But more recently attention has
been focused on the importance of the microscopic particulates found in diesel
emissions. London has been at the forefront of addressing these issues through
the low emission zone which now covers a large part of the area within the
M25. Plans are also in hand to restrict or penalise diesel vehicle engines with
poor efficiency in central London.
It is crucial that cities have a supply of fresh, drinkable water and a safe and
effective system of sewage disposal. We only have to look back to the London
of the 1850s to see the implications of a lack of such basics. Work on the new
Thames sewer, costing billions of pounds, is about to begin in an effort to keep
water infrastructure up to date.
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Connectivity
9.Transport
Transport is crucial to the efficient functioning of the city and its economy, and
the efficient movement of people. London was fortunate in that it was able to
put in place one of the earliest subway systems in the world, starting in 1863.
There were some suburban extensions in the first part of the 20th century,
and the Victoria Line was added in the 1970s, the Docklands Light Railway
(DLR) in the 1980s-2000s, and the Jubilee Line extension in the late 1990s.
Currently, the major addition of Crossrail is also under construction. With
the population growth of the last 10 years and the expected future growth,
London’s public transport will, however, continue to burst at the seams.
There are plans for a north-south Crossrail 2 but this could take a decade or
more to come to fruition. London has aimed to control private car usage in
central areas through congestion charging, but the city needs to stay ahead of
the game if transport is to keep up with and underpin economic growth. The
problems are also shown in the long running debate over additional airport
capacity and the issue of future river crossings, especially to the east.
10.
Electronic communications
Electronic communications provide a vital role in connecting London, both
with itself and across the country and the world. The absence of superfast
broadband, in particular, in parts of London at present is a major drawback to
maintaining its worldwide success. The Commission will aim to investigate the
barriers to achieving this and how they can best be removed.
Culture
11.
London’s culture and the cultural industries
Increasingly, visitors are attracted to cities on the basis of the strength of their
cultural offerings. London has a large and very strong cultural infrastructure.
In addition to its opera, theatre, dance, classical and popular music venues, it
has a plethora of world-class museums and galleries which bare comparison
with any in the world.
It also has a strong cultural industry in terms of radio, TV, film and music
production. Add in advertising and the new digital industries in Soho, Hoxton
and Shoreditch, and London has a flourishing cultural sector which attracts
visitors and also generates a significant share of GDP. Nonetheless, London
needs to ensure that it can remain at the forefront as a world culture centre.
Other issues
There are a number of other issues which the Commission could also usefully
cover. These include the needs of London in a system of devolved government
across England and the financing of London government; crime and policing,
gender and ethnicity, social networking, new big data and data technologies.
There is considerable scope and flexibility for individual funders to help shape
the additional issues which could be examined.
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For further information please contact:
Tony Halmos MA FRSA
Director, Commission on London
The Policy Institute at King’s
King’s College London
First Floor, Virginia Woolf Building
22 Kingsway
London WC2B 6LE
+44 20 7848 2749 +44 7785 316988
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www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/policy-institute
@policyatkings