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Monetary Policy
Update
December 2009
Recovery continuing and low
inflationary pressure
Recovery continuing
GDP in Sweden, the euro area and the USA
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Sweden
-15
-15
Euro area
USA
-20
-20
00
01
02
03
04
Quarterly change in per cent calculated at an annual
rate, seasonally-adjusted data
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Synchronised recovery
Index year 2000=100, seasonally-adjusted data
175
175
World trade monitor index
Swedish goods exports
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
Index year 2000=100, seasonally-adjusted data
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and Statistics Sweden
…from a low level
GDP in Sweden, the euro area and the USA
110
110
USA
108
108
Euro area
106
106
Sweden
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
90
90
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Unemployment rising
14
%
14
%
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
Per cent of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Low cost pressures
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
-1
-1
-2
-2
94
96
Note. Unit labour costs
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Stronger krona
160
160
155
155
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
TCW exchange rate, index 18 November 1992 = 100
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Low inflationary pressure
5
%
5
%
CPI
4
CPIF
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
Annual percentage change
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Financial markets functioning better and better
TED spread, basis points
500
500
450
Sweden
450
400
Euro area
400
USA
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
jan-07
jul-07
jan-08
Note. The spread is calculated as the difference between the
3-month interbank rate and the 3-month treasury bill rate.
jul-08
jan-09
jul-09
jan-10
jul-10
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbanken
Increased activity in the financial markets
50
50
Government bonds
M ortgage bonds
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Jan-03
0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Note: Refers to turnover in the secondary market in SEK billion. Monthly average of daily turnover.
Jan-08
Jan-09
Source: The Riksbank
Low repo rate – a forecast, not a promise
%7
7
%
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
Per cent, quarterly average
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Recovery continuing and low
inflationary pressure