Download VISION - espon

Visions of Europe in the world
Workshop 2
THE “CENTRE-PERIPHERY” VISION: towards a
dissymmetrical Euro-Mediterranean pattern
WORLD EVIDENCES - The “North-South regions”.
Share in the World population & GDP, 1952-1998
WORLD EVIDENCES - The “North-South regions”.
Synthesis
WORLD EVIDENCES - Bilateral international trade flows
(1996-2000, EU25 aggregated)
VISIONS - The vision of world division
by the ESPON members (Survey)
VISIONS- Official development assistance to the neighbourhood
and the EU share (members and Commission, ann. average 2001-04)
VISIONS - Destination of German Foreign Direct Investment
in the neighbourhood (stock, 2003)
VISIONS – Share of the neighbourhood in FDI (out stocks)
35
35
USA
30
Japan
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1996
1997
-
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Mexico
4 Dragons (HK, Sing., Korea, Taiw an)
Caribbean & central America (Mexico excluded)
China
South America
other S-E Asia & Pacific
Germany
Spain
France
Idem,
excluding
intra
UE15
FDI
Idem,excluding
excludingintra
intraUE15
UE15FDI
FDI
Idem,
35 35
35
35
35
35
30 30
30
30
30
30
25 25
25
25
25
25
20 20
20
20
20
20
15 15
15
15
1515
10 10
10
10
1010
55 5
55
2003
2002
2001
2001
2000
1999
1999
1997
1998
1996
1995
1997
1994
1993
1995
1993
1991
0
1992
00
2003
2004
2003
2003
2002
2001
2001
1999
2000
1999
1997
1998
1997
1996
1995
1995
1994
1992
1993
1991
- 0 0
1993
5
2003
2004
2003
1992
1991
1990
-
REGIONAL EVIDENCES – The center-periphery delimitation
varies in the time (e.g. GDP / inhab.)
REGIONAL EVIDENCES - Egypt tourism
(origins of tourists to Egypt, ann. average 2001-2003)
REGIONAL EVIDENCES - Demographic and markets opportunity
Population in 2030
Demographic development
1955-2045
Territorial assets of the North-South Vision
•
•
•
1- A deeper Euro mediterranean integration, despite being
asymmetrical (2010 free trade zone)
2- Mediterranean European territories will boost their
development
3- Europe improves catching up with Asian and American
counterparts (although not on the high-tech base of the Lisbon
strategy)
Shortcomings of the North-South Vision
•
•
•
•
•
1- The relocation of the environmental burden on the southern
shore of the Mediterranean is not sustainable
2- No de-pollution of the Mediterranean
3- No change in the migration mix: mainly low educated
migrants toward Mediterranean Europe
4- Southern brain drain is not stopped
5- North Africa as gatekeeper against sub-Saharan African
migrants
Expected impacts on EU territorial cohesion
Expected impacts on EU territorial cohesion
Global cities
Global gateway
National capitals or other major cities
Rural regions
Touristic regions
Old industrial regions
High tech regions