Download US Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment September 2009

The Great Recession & Recovery
Walking on Bottom
• The Great Recession & Recovery
The Two Carolinas
• Walking on Bottom
Looking Ahead to the Knowledge Economy
• The Two Carolinas
• Looking Ahead to the Knowledge Economy
Bruce Yandle
Bruce Yandle
[email protected]
[email protected]
The Recession ends when
we hit bottom. That looks
like August or September
2009.
December
2007
September
2009
Recovery? What Shape?
V U W
2001M1
2001M4
2001M7
2001M10
2002M1
2002M4
2002M7
2002M10
2003M1
2003M4
2003M7
2003M10
2004M1
2004M4
2004M7
2004M10
2005M1
2005M4
2005M7
2005M10
2006M1
2006M4
2006M7
2006M10
2007M1
2007M4
2007M7
2007M10
2008M1
2008M4
2008M7
2008M10
2009M1
2009M4
2009M7
$Billion
TOTAL PERSONAL SAVINGS: 2001-2009
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
TWO KEY U.S. INDICATORS
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
2010q3
2010q1
2009q3
2009q1
2008q3
2008q1
2007q3
2007q1
2006q3
2006q1
2005q3
2005q1
2004q3
2004q1
2003q3
2003q1
2002q3
2002q1
2001q3
2001q1
2000q3
2000q1
1999q3
1999q1
1998q3
1998q1
1997q3
1997q1
1996q3
1996q1
1995q3
1995q1
1994q3
1994q1
1993q3
1993q1
1992q3
1992q1
1991q3
1991q1
10.0
Real GDP Growth, 1991-2010E
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
6.0
Real GDP Growth, 2004-2010E
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Annual Growth of Industrial Production on
9-month Lagged M-1 Growth: 1/1990-9/2009
80
60
Money Supply Growth
20
0
Industrial Production Growth
(lagged nine months)
-20
-40
-60
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
2…
Annual Growth Rate
40
1990Q1
1990Q3
1991Q1
1991Q3
1992Q1
1992Q3
1993Q1
1993Q3
1994Q1
1994Q3
1995Q1
1995Q3
1996Q1
1996Q3
1997Q1
1997Q3
1998Q1
1998Q3
1999Q1
1999Q3
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
20
15
-20
-25
Dow-Jones & GDP Growth: 1Q1990-2Q2009
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Dow-Jones annual growth, 4-quarter moving average.
GDP quarterly annuallized growth.
120
Percentage Change Dec. 31 through October 28
100
80
60
40
20
0
Financial Market Performance, Dec. 2007-Oct. 2009
(in U.S. dollar terms)
Overall Economic Freedom
Index and the Top 10
Hong Kong
Singapore
New Zealand
Average of top 10
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Chile
Canada
Australia
United States
Ireland
0
2
4
6
Score (out of 10)
8
10
Industrial Production Index
1919-7/2009
160
y = 5.1316e0.0031x
R² = 0.9639
140
Index ,2002=100
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Industrial Production
Exponential Estimate
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
15
Industrial Production & Real Total Personal Income Growth
10
5
0
-5
-10
Industrial Production
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
15
Industrial Production & Real Total Personal Income Growth
10
5
0
-5
-10
Industrial Production
North Carolina
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
15
Industrial Production & Real Total Personal Income Growth
10
5
0
-5
-10
South Carolina
Industrial Production
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
15
Industrial Production & Real Total Personal Income Growth
10
5
0
-5
-10
South Carolina
Industrial Production
North Carolina
1980M1
1980M9
1981M5
1982M1
1982M9
1983M5
1984M1
1984M9
1985M5
1986M1
1986M9
1987M5
1988M1
1988M9
1989M5
1990M1
1990M9
1991M5
1992M1
1992M9
1993M5
1994M1
1994M9
1995M5
1996M1
1996M9
1997M5
1998M1
1998M9
1999M5
2000M1
2000M9
2001M5
2002M1
2002M9
2003M5
2004M1
2004M9
2005M5
2006M1
2006M9
2007M5
2008M1
2008M9
2009M5
Year over Year Growth
15
Employment Growth, Total & Construction , Year/Year
1/1980 - 8/2009
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Construction
Total
Employment Growth: 1996-2006
Nominal GDP Growth: 2005-2008
Economy.com, June 2009
Where People Work
U.S. Employment Sectors, 2008
Natural Resources
1%
Other Svc.
4%
Construction
5%
MFG
10%
Government
16%
Trade
15%
Leisure
10%
Ed. & Health
14%
Financial
6%
Prof. & Bus. Serv
13%
Trans Util Ware
Information 4%
2%
N.C. Employment Sectors, 2008
Natural Construction
6%
Resources
0.1%
Government
17%
Other Svc.
4%
MFG
12%
Trade
16%
Leisure
10%
Ed. & Health
13%
Financial
5%
Prof. & Bus. Serv
12%
Trans Util Ware
3%
Information
2%
S.C. Employment Sectors, 2008
Natural Construction
6%
Resources
0.2%
Government
18%
MFG
13%
Other Svc.
4%
Trade
16%
Leisure
11%
Ed. & Health
11%
Financial
6%
Prof. & Bus. Serv
11%
Trans Util Ware
3%
Information
1%
10
1980M1
1980M10
1981M7
1982M4
1983M1
1983M10
1984M7
1985M4
1986M1
1986M10
1987M7
1988M4
1989M1
1989M10
1990M7
1991M4
1992M1
1992M10
1993M7
1994M4
1995M1
1995M10
1996M7
1997M4
1998M1
1998M10
1999M7
2000M4
2001M1
2001M10
2002M7
2003M4
2004M1
2004M10
2005M7
2006M4
2007M1
2007M10
2008M7
2009M4
12
Unemployment Rates: U.S. , N.C., & S.C..
1980-9/2009
8
6
4
2
0
U.S.
10
1980M1
1980M10
1981M7
1982M4
1983M1
1983M10
1984M7
1985M4
1986M1
1986M10
1987M7
1988M4
1989M1
1989M10
1990M7
1991M4
1992M1
1992M10
1993M7
1994M4
1995M1
1995M10
1996M7
1997M4
1998M1
1998M10
1999M7
2000M4
2001M1
2001M10
2002M7
2003M4
2004M1
2004M10
2005M7
2006M4
2007M1
2007M10
2008M7
2009M4
12
Unemployment Rates: U.S. , N.C., & S.C..
1980-9/2009
8
6
4
2
0
U.S.
North Carolina
12
1980M1
1980M10
1981M7
1982M4
1983M1
1983M10
1984M7
1985M4
1986M1
1986M10
1987M7
1988M4
1989M1
1989M10
1990M7
1991M4
1992M1
1992M10
1993M7
1994M4
1995M1
1995M10
1996M7
1997M4
1998M1
1998M10
1999M7
2000M4
2001M1
2001M10
2002M7
2003M4
2004M1
2004M10
2005M7
2006M4
2007M1
2007M10
2008M7
2009M4
14
Unemployment Rates: U.S. , N.C., & S.C..
1980-9/2009
10
8
6
4
2
0
South Carolina
U.S.
North Carolina
U.S. Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment
September 2009
Less than High School Education
13.7%
High School Graduates
10.0%
Associate Degree Holders
8.1%
Bachelor Degree Holders
5.0%
What about brains?
Bachelor's Degrees & Per Capita GDP, 2006
45.0
Massachusetts
California
40.0
Maryland
Conn.
35.0
N.J.
Share of above 25 with degrees
Vermont
Hawaii
Va.
30.0
Kansas
.
Montana
25.0
New York
Alaska
Delaware
N.C.
Texas
Miss.
20.0
Tenn.
S.C.
La.
Arkansas
W. Virginia
15.0
Nevada
Wyoming.
10.0
5.0
0.0
0
10000
20000
40000
30000
Per Capita GDP
50000
60000
70000
Per Capita Income by % Bachelor's Degrees, 2007
35000
Per Capita Income, 2007
Raliegh
Wilmington
30000
Asheville
Spartanburg
Anderson
25000
N. Wilksboro
Myrtle
Beach
Augusta
Charlotte
Hilton Head
Durham
Charleston
Columbia
Greenville
Seneca
Greenwood
Florence
Orangeburg
Sumter
20000
Lumberton
15000
10000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% of Adult Population with Bachelor's Degrees, 2007
35
40
45
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services One-Person Firms
and Per Capita Income, 2007
Professional/Scientific Nonemploy Share of All Nonemploy
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
y = 0.0009x - 10.942
R² = 0.5244
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Per Capita Income
30000
35000
40000
Bachelor's Degrees and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
One-Person Firms
Professional/Scientific Nonemploy share of All Nonemploy
20
18
Columbia
16
14
Hilton Head
Greenville
Charleston
12
Spartanburg
10
Anderson
8
Greenwood
Orangeburg
Seneca
6
Florence
4
Sumter
y = 0.5787x - 3.0617
R² = 0.7739
2
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Share of Over 25 with Bachelor's Degree
30
35
40
60
S.C. Cities: 2007 Median Income and Percent over 65
Hilton Head
Charleston
50
Columbia
Spartanburg Anderson
Florence
40
Greenwood Greenville
Median Income
30
Newberry
Georgetown
Seneca
Lancaster
Sumter
Chester
Myrtle Beach
Union
Walterboro
Orangeburg
Rock Hill
Dillon
20
10
Percent of Population over 65
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Follow me to
a cool city!
What did we learn?
Go Getters are:
• Highly attracted by larger PBS sector.
• Repelled by state taxes.
• Attracted by “cool” locations.
• Are not sensitive to high versus low income
locations.
Southern MSA Knowledge Economy Index
MSA
State
Rank
Austin
Charlottesville
Lexington
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
Atlanta
Huntsville
Gainesville
Tallahassee
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill
Texas
Virginia
Kentucky
North Carolina
Georgia
Alabama
Florida
Florida
North & South Carolina
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Richmond-Petersburg
Fort Walton Beach
Columbia
Naples
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Jackson
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News
Virginia
Florida
South Carolina
Florida
Texas
Mississippi
Virginia
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Orlando
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay
Florida
Florida
17
18
Asheville
Sarasota-Bradenton
Auburn-Opelika
Charleston-N. Charleston
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria
Wilmington
Cincinnati-Hamilton
North Carolina
Florida
Alabama
South Carolina
Texas
North Carolina
Ohio
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Regional MSA Index Ranking
State
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
Huntsville
Atlanta
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill
Columbia
Auburn-Opelika
Asheville
Charleston-North Charleston
Wilmington
Greenville
Savannah
Nashville
Knoxville
Athens
Birmingham
Tuscaloosa
Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson
Montgomery
Memphis
Fayetteville
NC
AL
GA
NC-SC
SC
AL
NC
SC
NC
NC
GA
TN
TN
GA
AL
AL
SC
AL
TN-AR-MS
NC
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
All Migration & University Students
160000
140000
Charlotte-Gasonia-Concord
Migration, 2005-2007
120000
100000
Raleigh
Columbia
80000
Charleston
60000
Augusta
Greenville, SC
Durham
Greensboro-
40000
20000
Sumter
Myrtle Beach
Spartanburg
Greenville, NC
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Number of College & University Students, 2007
70000
80000
Migration, 25-39, 2002-2007 & Creativity Index
30000
Migration of 25-39 Year Olds
25000
Charlotte
Raleigh
20000
15000
Wilmington
Myrtle Beach
10000
Charleston
5000
Greenville, NC
Asheville
Durham
Jacksonville
0
Florence
Greenville,
Goldsboro Augusta
-5000
Sumter
Columbia
Greensboro
-10000
Fayetteville
-15000
0
200
400
600
800
Creativity Index
1000
1200
2007 Violent Crime Rates
1600
1400
Crimes per 100,000
1200
1000
800
600
588
MEAN 400
200
0
Migration, 25-54, 2002-2007, and 2007 Violent Crime
20000
15000
Goldsboro
Sumter
10000
Greenville, NC
Total Migration
Myrtle Beach
5000
Asheville
Augusta
0
Durham
Anderson
Greenville, SC
-5000
Burlington
Florence
Raleigh
Columbia
-10000
-15000
Charleston
-20000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Violent Crime Levels
6000
7000
8000
Questions?