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The future of cities: levers for creating smart,
sustainable and inclusive growth
Policy conclusions from the project
Future Orientations for Cities (FOCI)
Moritz Lennert, IGEAT, ULB
ESPON Seminar, Lège, November 2010
Policy questions


Sustainable growth:
–
Is city form important for sustainable growth ?
–
How sustainably are European cities developing ?
Inclusive Growth:
–


Smart Growth:
–
How are cities preparing for smart growth ?
–
How are cities linking into the global economy ?
Territorial Cohesion:
–

How inclusive are our cities' economies ?
Where are the missing links of territorial cohesion ?
Where are our cities headed ?
Is city form important for sustainable growth ?
City form measured by a compacity index based on Urban Atlas data
How sustainably are European cities developing ?
How inclusive are our cities' economies ?
Unemployment rates of
lowly qualified as
compared to the average
unemployment rate in
Larger Urban Zones
(NUTS 2 proxies)
How inclusive are our cities' economies ?
Correlation (R Pearson) between economic wealth (GDP/head) and some
social indicators in European cities, in the years 2000.
Significant ** at 0.01; * at 0.05
(1) Data come from perception survey or the district statistics of the Urban Audit and only
concern core cities while GDP level is defined at the LUZ level
Source: Eurostat, urban audit; Eurostat, Perception Survey; Eurostat, Regional Statistics.
How are cities linking preparing for smart growth ?
Participation in
Framework Programme
projects in Nanotech,
Biotech, Infotech and
Cognitive sciences
Based on CORDIS data1986-2000
How are cities linking into the global economy ?
European cities as gatekeepers, representatives or platforms in the global economy
Based on a selection of all direct and indirect subsidiairies of the 3000 largest global
companies from the Bureau Van Dijck ORBIS database
Where are the missing links of territorial cohesion ?
Links where best daily return accessibility is by rail (compared to air)
between a selected list of metropolitan areas between 5h and 23h
(time-table based)
Where are the missing links of territorial cohesion ?
Cities centralities in the network of multinational firms with a distance
below 100km
Based on a selection of all direct
and indirect subsidiairies of the
3000 largest global companies
from the Bureau Van Dijck ORBIS
database
Where are our cities headed ?


Starting postulate: most of what will happen to cities
in the future is decided at other scales
Two scenario hypotheses:
–
“Green Economy”: swift crisis recovery at
global scale with a European focus on the green
economy and new energy paradigm
–
“Enhancing the European potential”: no swift
recovery at global scale with a European focus
on cohesion, reinforcement of European
industries and regional potentials
Where are our cities headed ?
Summary of territorial impacts of the two scenarios
Thank you !
Moritz Lennert
IGEAT – ULB
moritz.lennert @ ulb.ac.be
http://www.espon.eu/