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Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006 Most of the poor are rural (70% on Sr i L a n k a Nepal Ye me n N ic a r a g u Hondur as G e o r g ia Ky g y z Mo n g o lia Vie t n a m C a mb o d ia Ma la w i G hana Et h io p ia G a mb ia Z a mb ia N ig e r Mo z a mb iq average) T a n z a n ia Ma u r it a n i Uganda Bu r k in a MDG1: Reducing Poverty is still mostly a rural development issue Pov erty Rates Rural 51 46 68 50 71 66 80 61 47 34 67 40 57 33 70 10 51 69 45 44 27 Urban 17 16 25 24 62 52 56 48 37 27 55 21 26 39 49 12 57 31 31 23 15 Difference 34 30 43 26 9 14 24 13 10 7 12 19 31 -6 21 -2 -6 38 14 21 12 Partly because agriculture is the Leading Sector in Low Income Countries 70 Low income countries Agric as %GDP 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 WDI, 2002 1000 2000 3000 GDP per Capita ($) 4000 5000 Number of Persons Removed from Poverty for a Given Public Investment in Agriculture versus other Sectors IFPRI studies by Fan et al M Rupees or 100,000 Yuan High Payoffs to agriculture R&D; but also to other interventions: investment works. 150 India 120 China 90 60 30 0 Ag R&D Roads Education Irrigation Rural Dev Poverty is reduced in India as crop yields increase (investment in R&D works) 2.75 Yield** P overt y* 5 2.25 1.75 4.5 1.25 0.75 4 1959 1963 *Lo g o f s q . p o v.g ap ind ex **Lo g o f ave. o ut p ut / acre Datt and Ravallion, 1998 1967 1978 1986 1991 140 120 Percent increase Changes in Household Incomes in Southern India, 1973-84 (the poorest benefit from farm income expansion) 100 80 60 40 20 0 Landless laborers Hazell and Ramasamy, 1991 Small rice farms Nonagricultural Large rice farms Non-rice farns households 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Services 0 -0.1 -0.2 Thirtle, et. al., 2002 Agriculture 0.6 Elasticity (-ve) of poverty to labor productivity Another way of looking at this: the poverty effect of a 1 % productivity Gain in Agriculture, Industry, and Services in India Industry % Change in Malnourished Children Depends on Public Investment in Agriculture, 2020 (IFPRI) L o w inve stm e nt H ig h inve stm e nt B a se line pr o je c tio n S/E A sia So uth A isa A fr ic a -6 0 -4 0 -2 0 0 20 40 60 A problem however: agricultural area expansion has displaced forest and woodland; Need agricultural growth without area expansion 5.2 Agricult ural area Billion ha 4.8 4.4 4.0 Forest /woodland 3.6 1961 FAOSTAT, 2002 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 80 Agribusiness Agriculture 70 Share of GDP (%) An opportunity being missed? Agribusiness Sector is also Large in Developing Economies and can pull agriculture 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Philippines Holt and Pryor, 1999 India Chile Brazil United States Taking an Integrated Approach to Value Chain Management; And the growing importance of private sector investment and innovation Agricultural production Food industry Consumption Input industry Producers Research Ext. service Food process industry Food retail industry Consumers Decline in Commodity Prices; 1979-1999 …… 120 100 Cotton 80 60 40 Coffee Rice 20 Cocoa 0 1979 FAOSTAT, 2002 FAOSTAT2002 / GEM2005 1984 1989 1994 1999 …… But recent increases may spell change; 2000-2005 120 Cotton 100 Cocoa Rice 80 60 40 20 Coffee 0 1999 FAOSTAT, 2002 GEM, 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 To confront the challenges and address the opportunities, what has the Bank done lately? The Bank’s 2002/2003 Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Resources Strategies, contributed to renewed donor interest in all three sectors Bank advocacy for agricultural subsidy and trade reform starting to bite, though failure of Doha is a setback World Bank Lending for Rural Development up Bank loans and credits with significant rural components are up: From $5 billion in FY02 to $7 billion in FY 03 and FY04; $ 8 billion in FY05 The number of projects with rural components: 175 in FY03 to 195 in FY04, 217 in FY05 Composition of Rural Lending One-third of rural lending is to the infrastructure sector, while the agriculture sector received a fifth. Average FY03-04 = $7.5 billion Law/Justic e/P ublic A dministra tio n 14% A griculture 23% Average FY03-04 = $7.5 billion Law/Justic e/P ublic A dministra tio n 14% So cial Secto rs 26% Eco no mic Secto rs 8% A griculture 23% So cial Secto rs 26% Infrastruct ure 29% Eco no mic Secto rs 8% FY05 = $8.7 billion Law/Justic e/P ublic A dministra tio n 17% A griculture 24% So cial Secto rs 21% Eco no mic Secto rs 8% Infrastruct ure 30% Infrastruct ure 29% 4 16 14 12 10 8 6 Len di ng ($ ) 3 2 1 4 2 0 % o f B an k total 0 1 99 0 199 2 19 94 1 99 6 1 99 8 20 00 2 00 2 % of total Bank lending Lending to Ag. sector ($bil) Bank Agriculture Lending declined from 1990-2002 Agricultural Lending Commitments ($million) But is now increasing Avg. FY99-01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 AFR 190 308 318 287 295 703 EAP 363 151 119 358 253 400 ECA 311 644 342 175 153 188 LCR 229 100 61 387 238 349 MNA 188 5 199 33 229 25 SAR 157 328 251 255 955 462 Total 1,438 1,536 1,289 1,495 2,122 2,127 IBRD/IDA commitments to the agriculture sector by subsector, FY1999- 2006 (projected), $ million FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Agric extension & research 137 70 48 117 247 402 Agric market & trade 107 221 72 85 95 158 Agro-industry 60 68 4 24 94 36 Animal production 53 25 23 61 32 106 Crops 119 487 96 80 64 58 Forestry 89 128 166 29 63 207 Gen agr/fish/for sec 479 202 660 330 458 767 Irrigation & drainage 394 335 220 769 1,069 395 1,438 1,536 1,289 1,495 2,122 2,127 Total Why the decline in agriculture lending from FY90 to FY03 (increasing only in FY04 to FY06)? Agriculture relatively less important as new sectors became priority (social protection, development policy lending, anti-corruption, public administration) Big projects fell out of favor (for example large scale irrigation, integrated rural development, agriculture credit, commodity support through parastatal enterprises). New style projects are smaller scale (CDD, irrigation rehab, micro-credit, agriculture research and knowledge, soil rehabilitation and land management, land titling) Agriculture not the priority of Ministers of Finance, nor of Bank country directors Quality problems with agriculture projects until recently Urban group argued that rapid expansion of cities in developing countries, should cause a shift in priority to urban development Quality of Bank’s Agriculture Projects Early QAG ratings for quality at entry, and quality of supervision for agriculture projects were poor However, quality at entry for agriculture and rural projects (88% satisfactory) is now only slightly less than the Bank (90%) And the quality of supervision of agriculture and rural projects (95% satisfactory) is better than the Bank (90%) Projects under implementation 7% of agriculture and rural development projects in problem status; average for all Bank projects is 10% 10% of agriculture and rural projects at risk compared to 15% for all Bank projects Quality Closed projects According to OED ratings of closed projects: Agriculture and RD (ARSB) 4 points higher than the Bank for outcome (87% satisfactory in FY04 compared to 83% for all Bank projects) A major improvement over the 64% satisfactory for rural projects in the FY992001 period and prior. Agriculture Water issues and approaches - Sourcebook Agriculture - Directions in development The analytical products Rural Finance - Approach Paper Agriculture and MDGs Macroeconomic links to forestry IPM approach paper Water for food - Directions in development Innovation in managing agriculture production risk in developing countries Innovations in rural finance Managing the challenges of the livestock revolution Gender issues and best practices in land administration projects Sustainable Land management Analytical work at country level increasing Economic and sector work increasing (23 country Rural Development strategies and water CASs), and rural content of CASs improving (73% of CASs satisfactory from rural/agriculture viewpoint) CONTROVERSY 1: HOW TO STIMULATE RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA? Hunger is increasing in Africa, decreasing in Asia What do the hungry do? North Africa & Middle East Latin America 60 Landless Rural Poor 40 230 South Asia 200 SSA 155 Rest of Asia 115 East Asia 22% 50% Farmers Marginal Land 20% Urban Poor 8% Pastorists/ Fishers Can the Asian Green Revolution be duplicated in Africa? Adoption of Modern varieties Wheat Rice M ha / % area 1961 0 / 0% 0 / 0% 1970 14 / 20% 15 / 20% 1980 39 / 49% 55 / 43% 1990 60 / 70% 85 / 65% 2000 70 / 84%100 / 74% Irrigation million ha 87 106 129 158 175 Nutrient Use million t 2 10 29 54 70 Tractors millions 0.2 0.5 2.0 3.4 4.8 Cereal Production million t 309 463 618 858 962 Source: FAOSTAT, July 2002 and author’s estimated on modern variety adoption, based on CIMMYT and IRRI data. One Answer is to diversify Smallholder Agriculture and Income in Africa Improve basic foods Include cash crops I Integrate livestock Add agro-processing WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN AFRICA Africa has the potential to irrigate 20% of its arable land Only 4% is currently irrigated Small-scale irrigation systems generally are the most cost- effective Focus on high potential countries for irrigation; Ethiopia, Sudan, all Sahel, South Africa, Malawi, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Netherlands Vietnam Japan United Kingdom China France Brazil United Status India México South Africa Cuba Benin Malawi Ethiopia Malí Burkina Faso Nigeria Tanzania Mozambique Guinea Ghana Uganda Consumption of fertilizer nutrients per hectare of arable land is very low in Africa (2002) 0 100 200 300 Source: FAOSTAT, July 2005 400 500 600 Kg/ha Part of the solution will be to build Smallholder Input Retailer Systems Business development assistance Multiple products & services Commercial credit lines Technical advisory services Contract service provider Making Markets Work for Smallholders Inputs Processing Storage Marketing Public-Private Partnerships Example: Smallholder Seed Sector Germplasm Development IP Mainly Public Sector R&D Foundation Seed Production Private enterprise, with IP licensing Farmer Seed Production Mixed NGOs, farmers’ assn., private growers Distribution Private dealers, NGOs, farmers’ assn., private growers Solving Infrastructure Problem Kilometers of paved roads per million people in selected countries USA France Japan Zimbabwe South Africa Brazil India China Km 20,987 12,673 9,102 1,586 1,402 1,064 1,004 803 Guinea Ghana Nigeria Mozambique Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia Congo, DR Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, 2002 Km 637 494 230 141 114 94 66 59 Beginnings of success in Africa? Examples of good recent projects include: Irrigation rehabilitation and Water User Associations in Mali and Nigeria Natural disaster mitigation in Southern Africa (maybe) Bringing the private sector to agriculture services in Senegal Rural financial services in Ghana and Tanzania Community participation in agriculture service management in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania Commodity risk mitigation in Tanzania using insurance instruments, and in Malawi using hedge instrument New Fisheries Investments in Guinea Bissau, Senegal Rockefeller Foundation use of retail outlets to sell inputs Agriculture policy reform in Uganda and Mali Controversy 2: Reforming Development Assistance to Agriculture and Rural Development Increase coordinated donor support for African investment in R&D, land reform, irrigation, food security, soil improvement, infrastructure, non-farm rural enterprise, high value agriculture. Donors to support community driven development, private sector and other non-government efforts, not just government programs Donors to help countries reduce vulnerability to shocks; safety nets, including by improving food aid delivery mechanisms, introduction of market based approaches Help with market reforms, while advocating tariff and subsidy reform in own (industrial) country Donor support to be sustained for longer periods More vigorous support for Global Donor platform and expanded country pilots? Controversy regarding food insecurity and food selfsufficiency Food Aid as solution for malnutrition and hunger Pro: if food availability is insufficient (e.g. humanitarian emergencies), donors should send food to save lives; food is human right Con: Food aid is a disincentive to invest in agriculture and reduces farmers’ income in the recipient country; and food aid disrupts marketing channels (prevents market development) School Food Programs Con: earlier intervention from pregnancy to the 1st two years of life is more effective in dealing with undernutrition in children. School feeding is too late. Pro: easiest and fastest way to get food to children Agricultural biotechnology - GMOs Pro: (1) food & nutritional benefits, (2) increased production, (3) reduced post-harvest losses, (4) health benefits (China Bt cotton) (The Bank generally supports this position) Con: (1) environmental risks and expensive, (2) innovation has most benefited large farmers, (3) lack of capacity to regulate in many developing countries Developing countries’ agricultural exports to rich Controversy on Trade and Subsidy reform countries have stagnated, as has agricultural trade between developing countries TRADE FLOWS 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 Agriculture Total To Developing To Industrialized 35.4 9.5 25.8 32.2 8.9 23.3 36.3 13.4 22.9 Manufacturing Total To Developing To Industrialized 19.3 6.6 12.7 22.7 7.5 15.2 33.4 12.3 21.1 Source: COMTRADE Largely because Agricultural Tariffs Remain Much Higher Than Manufacturing tariffs in virtually all countries Figure 1: Average tariffs Percent 40 Agriculture and food 35 30 Manufactures 25 20 15 10 5 0 East Asia Eur. & C. Lat. Amer. Mid-East South Asia Sub-Sah. Industrial Asia & N. Afr. Afr. Source: GTAP release 6.03 The Trade solution? All research agrees on the need for industrial countries to remove agricultural trade protection and agricultural subsidies to stimulate developing country agri. trade But industrial countries have not done it. What needs to be done to get this industrial country policy change? Should developing countries also reduce agricultural trade protection and agricultural subsidies, despite industrial country resistance? Pro: this would reduce food prices to consumers and stimulate agricultural trade between developing countries thereby stimulating agric. Growth (the Bank’s position) Con: this would invite dumping of agricultural products by industrial countries (many developing countries hold this view) Land Tenure Controversy Issue: land quality and size are typically highly unequal in distribution. Are land re-distribution programs the answer (recent programs in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Eastern Europe; and past programs in Latin America)? One view: re-distribution of land will help poor farmers. Otherwise marginal farmers will stay marginal, poor and hungry Another view: Government’s land distribution programs are usually political and don’t succeed. Best is to invest directly in small farms and encourage investment in rural non farm enterprise to create employment The Bank has found that market based approaches, land registration and tenure security systems work well. WB has $ 1 billion portfolio (Salvador, Honduras, ECA, East Asia) Controversy: Does government intervention in agriculture markets actually make sense; based on failure of private sector to invest in mktg and agrobusiness? Pro: Governments are the main instruments of change in conservative societies. Government’s investments in agricultural research, extension, education, credit and infrastructure are vital for development in rural areas – leading to income growth and nutrition improvement. Private sector does not risk investing significantly in developing country mktg and input supply Con: Governments botch it. Leave it to the market, or to public-private partnerships. Agriculture increasingly demand driven by consumer through supermarket or other market. Government supply driven marketing and processing increasingly un-responsive. Governments to enable market development, and invest in complementary infrastructure, regulation, safety standards, R & D. World Water and Food to 2025, 2002 Increase in water consumption (%) Controversy: Water Consumption projected to Increase during 1995 to 2025. Will it be resolved through investment, or conservation, or better management, or all three? And what impact climate change? 120 100 80 Developed Developing 60 40 20 0 Irrigation Livestock Industrial Household Per capita water availability is a problem, to be exacerbated by climate change 16 Africa 14 12 10 World 8 Asia 6 4 2 MEast & NAfrica 0 1960 1990 2025 Climate/rainfall Variability & Economic Growth Risk of recurrent drought Kenya: variability & shock 10/97 – 2/98 Flood 10/98 –5/00 Drought 10/97 – 05/00 Natural legacy: extreme climate variability Infrastructure Damage Crop loss Livestock loss Reduction in hydropower $2.39 b $0.24 b $0.14 b $0.64 b Reduced industrial prod. TOTAL Cost of Climate Variability $1.39 b $2.41 b Approx (annual) GDP Impact as % GDP/annum ($9 b/yr) $2.39 b $4.8 b $22 b 22% Economy-wide impacts 3.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 -1.0 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0.0 1979 Real GDP growth (%) 2.0 10.0 -2.0 -5.0 -3.0 Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) -10.0 -4.0 Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993 Years 80 25 20 60 10 20 5 0 2000 -5 -10 -15 -40 rainfall variation around the mean -60 1999 1997 1998 1996 1995 1993 1994 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 -20 1983 0 1982 percentage 15 40 GDP growth -80 -20 -25 -30 year Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000 Variability in Rainfall (Meter) 15.0 Water storage in m3/cap 7,000 6,000 4,729 5,000 4,000 3,255 2,486 3,000 2,000 North America Australia Brazil China Laos Thailand 0 1,406 43 South Africa 1,000 1,287 746 Ethiopia Water storage and the poverty trap 6,150 Water availability versus storage withdrawal/ capita (m3) 1000 Spain 800 Australia • Stable pop. & GDP, raising 4,000 • Or 5% of GDP for over 100 yrs Ethiopia’s storage to South Africa (12% of USA) ~ 6 X GDP 600 400 S. Africa 200 Ethiopia 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 storage/ capita (m3) 5,000 Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty Income per capita Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India Nile Basin Initiative 10 countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, (Eritrea), Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda 300 m people (600m 2025) Extreme: poverty: 4 of 10 poorest climate variability and climate change impact landscape vulnerability Very limited infrastructure…. Eastern Nile: 170 million; conflict & historical tension; nothing flows… Egypt: water security; hydro/gas substitution, flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation Sudan: major flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation, irrigation, power, navigation… Ethiopia: major hydropower generation, watershed management, irrigation, storage, FDI… Eastern Nile: peace, trade, joint investment, prosperity … An Emerging Deal on the Nile… Tropical forests disappearing rapidly despite donor investment, NGO advocacy, regulatory reform. How to stop this? Huge expansion of World Bank activity in Forests: Renewed IFC commitment: From $45 million in FY01 to $300 million in FY05 Strong donor partnerships and have been formed PROFOR financed 22 forest activities in FY04; WWF-WB alliance 90 forest activities with targets for protected areas being met Targets for sustainable logging likely to be met Bank engagement in Congo Basin, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Honduras, and forest lending increasing ($ 319 m in FY05 and 06) . Increasingly using community owned and managed forests, in partnership with forest service and logging industry But controversy remains: NGOs find too much logging, illegal harvesting, agricultural encroachment Issue: are we on the right track, but need much more funding and commitment for forest projects and programs to have impact? Or is there a fundamental flaw in the approach? Are the NGOs correct that banning logging in much wider areas and banning agricultural incursion is likely to have bigger impact? New Concept of Avoided Deforestation (with the Nature Conservancy – using carbon offset funding) What to do about rural finance: given the failure of agriculture credit loans through state owned banks Financial cooperative / credit union system developed. Specialized rural finance institution founded Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Mauritania Linking commercial banks to village level financial associations Moldova Leasing Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Romania, Pakistan, Uganda, Madagascar Restructuring of State-Owned Agricultural Banks Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Albania Mongolia, Tanzania, Latvia Product Offerings Develop loan products appropriate for specific purposes (short-term, group loans, longer-term flexible agricultural loans) Simple and easily accessible savings products insurance products Creating Effective Demand Matching grants for asset creation Offer of savings facilities to create equity Support all along the supply chain The livestock Revolution is underway with increasing consumption of livestock products, and consequent problems Spatial concentration of livestock around urban areas has led to: Large areas with Nitrogen and Phosphate overloads, causing water and air pollution Closer contact between men and livestock causing emergence of new diseases (Avian Flu) Large population of highly vulnerable livestock (Foot and Mouth Disease) Exacerbated by weak enforcement of environmental and health regulations, and non-vaccination Proposed actions At global level: Increase awareness of environmental and public health issues, stressing global public good element, and interest of developed countries in protecting their own livestock from diseases spilling over from developing countries Strengthen international disease alert systems and explore alternative disease control systems At national level Develop planning, regulatory and incentive systems, which bring livestock production more in line with absorptive capacity of surrounding eco-systems Strengthen veterinary services, emergency preparedness Land degradation continues despite donor and government investment Land degradation problem is severe and growing with negative impacts on productive lands and ecosystem services. Climate change is likely to severely reduce land and water productivity in many countries (especially Africa) and result in further land degradation. Significant “practice gap” and huge scope to apply existing “best practice” to address land management problems in all regions. Lack of land ownership, poor access to knowledge and lack of appropriate incentives are major factors constraining best practice uptake. Make rehabilitation of degraded lands a poverty reduction priority and introduce land rehab projects Develop and implement innovative knowledge (best practice) dissemination mechanisms for land users and policy makers. Develop and implement incentives for good land management such as payments for ecosystem services (e.g. carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation) to facilitate uptake of best practices and to promote synergies with adaptation to climate change, biodiversity conservation, and watershed resilience to environmental and economic shocks Introduce land administration projects more widely SUMMARY of Corporate Priorities in the three sectors Promote market driven development Trade Liberalization and agricultural subsidy reduction Introduce an enabling agriculture policy and regulatory environment (including standards setting) for private invest Targeted support for private sector and market development; through entire market chain, up to supermarkets; build demand side Work more effectively with IFC agro-business and forest teams as well as the private sector and other donors Empower rural people, including farmers Land security and redistribution (community based land reform, land registration and titling) Decentralized and accountable public services (ICT, regulatory) Capacity building for local groups and farmer organizations (WUAs, herders associations, trade associations) Reducing risk and vulnerability for farmers and the supply chain broadly Nutrition and household food security Rural finance Invest in activities which create off-farm rural work (agro industry, agricultural services, rural infrastructure Develop water resource management strategies at country, basin, and project levels. Expand new style irrigation and drainage, and rural water investments; including efficiency of water use, env. and social concerns, private investment in water Priorities continued Invest in infrastructure, education, rural energy, and health through public-private partnerships Support international agriculture research through CGIAR and other partners, and in partnership with NARs. Pluralism, competition, contracting, demand driven Sustainable management (and recovery) of land resources Forestry – Continue protected area targets, expand forest certification, pursue good logging practices, incorporate forest concerns in development policy lending, and pursue forest law enforcement; expand IFC involvement Implement the new fisheries strategy (conservation of ocean fisheries and coastal marines, support small scale local fisheries, develop aqua-culture World Bank Corporate Challenges in Agriculture and Rural Development Further progress needed in getting agriculture, rural development, forests onto the bigger donor agenda (PRSPs, CASs, PRSCs, lending program), particularly in Africa Balancing multi-sector and development policy lending which includes RD; with sector investment Use wider variety of instruments (grants, trust funds, other donors, NGOs, Global Programs, private sector) Scale up better (we drop good projects at project completion) Can we deliver an expanded lending agenda with stagnating staff levels in the agriculture and rural development family, and in partner organizations? Agriculture, RD, forests and water could be a pilot for improved business planning for global programs. Can we operate like a Bank-wide product group, or will we continue to be fragmented into separate mini regional and anchor ARD groups?