Download Risk Environment for Agriculture.

Risk Environment for Agriculture
Ag. Credit School
Ames, Iowa
June 4, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
[email protected]
515-294-9911
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Population
2013
2020
2050
(billion)
(billion)
(billion)
World
7.095
World
7.628
World
9.383
China
1.350
China
1.385
India
1.657
India
1.221
India
1.326
China
1.304
U.S.
0.317
U.S.
0.337
U.S.
0.423
Indonesia
0.251
Indonesia
0.267
Nigeria
0.402
Brazil
0.201
Pakistan
0.214
Indonesia
0.300
Pakistan
0.193
Brazil
0.212
Pakistan
0.291
Nigeria
0.175
Nigeria
0.208
Bangladesh
0.250
Bangladesh
0.164
Bangladesh
0.183
Brazil
0.232
Russia
0.143
Russia
0.142
Ethiopia
0.228
Japan
0.127
Japan
0.126
Philippines
0.172
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Meat Consumption
Source: USDA-PSD
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Veg. Oil Consumption
Source: USDA-PSD
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Liquid Fuel Usage
2007
(Million Barrels
Oil Equivalent per
Day)
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
United States
20.6
98%
100%
102%
104%
107%
Canada
2.3
96%
96%
96%
100%
104%
Mexico
2.1
105%
110%
114%
129%
138%
Europe
15.3
92%
88%
88%
89%
90%
Japan
5.0
84%
86%
86%
84%
82%
China
7.6
132%
153%
178%
201%
222%
India
2.8
114%
129%
139%
154%
168%
Africa
3.1
113%
116%
126%
135%
148%
Central and South America
6.0
110%
112%
117%
125%
133%
World
86.1
103%
107%
113%
121%
128%
(Percent of 2007 Value)
Source: DOE-EIA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Crude Oil Prices
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Government Debt
Source: Fed. Res. Bank of StL, FRED
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Employment
Source: Fed. Res. Bank of StL, FRED
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Real GDP
Source: Fed. Res. Bank of StL, FRED
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Budget Projections by Title
Title
2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million)
Title I – Commodity
Title II – Conservation
Title III – Trade
Title IV – Nutrition
-17,639
-6,374
0
-4,024
Title V – Credit
0
Title VI – Rural Development
0
Title VII – Research
645
Title VIII – Forestry
9
Title IX – Energy
0
Title X – Horticulture
359
Title XI – Crop Insurance
2,748
Title XII – Miscellaneous
-466
Total
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
-24,747
Budget Projections by Crop
Crop
Corn
2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million)
-5,752
Soybean
Wheat
Cotton
Rice
1,459
-6,409
-6,077
-2,842
Sorghum
Barley
Oats
-505
-615
-11
Peanuts
-314
Dairy
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
-59
Commodity Title
Changes
2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million)
End Direct Payments
-44,622
End Countercyclical Payments
-1,008
End ACRE
-4,615
Adding Popcorn
Ag. Risk Coverage
Marketing Loans
Sugar Program
Dairy Program
Disaster Assistance
91
29,240
35
0
-59
3,297
AGI Limits
-95
Implementation
100
Total
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
-17,639
Crop Insurance Title
Changes
2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million)
Supplemental Coverage Option
CAT Rerating
682
-437
Enterprise Units
506
APH Adjustment
855
Stacked IP for Cotton
Peanut Rev. Insurance
3,224
239
Implementation
85
Index-Based Weather Ins.
50
Beginning Farmer Provisions
Ag. Mng. Assistance
Crop Prod. on Native Sod
Participation Effects from ARC
Total
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
192
6
-167
-2,487
2,748
Free Trade Agreements
• With South Korea, Colombia, and Panama
• Previously, with Israel, Jordan, Singapore,
Chile, Australia, Morocco, El Salvador,
Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Bahrain,
Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Oman,
and Peru
• Most famous: NAFTA, with Canada and
Mexico
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Input Costs
Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics