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MARKET RESEARCH Research Steps • • • • • • Define the research problem. Develop a research design. Determine information needs. Collect data. Analyze data and interpret results. Report and present findings. Challenges in Global Research • • • • • Complexity of research design. Problems with secondary data. Time and cost to collect primary data. Coordination of multi-country research. Comparability of multi-country research. Secondary Data • • • • • Availability of Data Currency of Data Accuracy of Data/Reliability over Time Lumping of Data Equivalence of Data Equivalence Level of Disability is 0.2% in Peru and 20.9% in Australia because Australia considers minor visual and hearing impaired people to be disabled. Primary Data • Conceptual/Functional Equivalence • Measure Equivalence • Sampling Equivalence • Interviewer Equivalence Conceptual/Functional Equivalence – Is bicycle a transportation mode or a recreational product? – Does outlet refer to a “retail establishment” or an “electric port”? – Is ownership of a refrigerator a symbol of status or just a necessity? – What is “privacy” or “innovativeness” or “customer service”? Measure Equivalence Are measures developed in one country valid in other countries? Is something lost in translation? (Back Translation) Are response scales inferred similarly? Even simple things as “marital status”, “income”, “education” and “occupation” may not be easily comparable. Sampling Equivalence • Are samples similar? • Are sampling frames similar? • Do subjects respond similarly? • Socially desirable answers • Socially sensitive topics • Pleasing the interviewer • Apathy toward interviewer/process Interviewer Equivalence • Interviewer training • Interviewer background • Interviewer error Method of Contact • Telephone • Mail • Personal Market Size Assessment Analogy Based on Demand for a Surrogate Product in a Similar Country VCR Demand (Country A) = VCR Demand (B) TV Demand (A) * -----------------------TV Demand (B) Important: Find a comparable country and a good surrogate measure Market Size Assessment Analogy Based on Demand for a Surrogate Product in the Same Country over Time VCR Demand (Time T) = VCR Demand (T-N) TV Demand (T) * -----------------------TV Demand (T-N) Results could be misleading if: • Consumption patterns are not comparable. • Other factors (trade barriers) cause sales to differ from potential sales. • Technological advances allow adoption of a product at an earlier stage of development. Market Size Assessment Analogy based on Level of Economic Development Consumption Rate in Country A = Consumption (GDP/Capita in Country A) Rate * --------------------------------in Country B (GDP/Capita in Country B) Market Size Assessment Chain Ratio Method Total Population (m) Urban Population Rate Urban Population (m) …... China 1207.4 30.3% 365.8 India 921.5 26.8% 247.0 Caution • Whenever feasible, use several methods. • Don’t be mislead by numbers--know the rationale behind the numbers. • Don’t be mislead by fancy methods. • Question your assumptions. • Find the range of possibilities.