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Transcript 
Public finances
and monetary
policy
First Deputy Governor
Svante Öberg
SACO 26 April 2010
Public finances in the OECD countries
Percentage of GDP
50
50
Expenditure
48
48
Revenue
46
46
44
44
42
42
40
40
38
38
36
36
34
34
32
32
30
30
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
General government net lending in the
OECD countries
Percentage of GDP
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
98
00
02
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
Gross public debt in the OECD countries
Percentage of GDP
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
98
00
02
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
General government net lending in the
United States and the euro area
Percentage of GDP
10
10
Euro area
USA
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
Average general government net lending
Percentage of GDP
OECD
USA
Euro area
1998-2007
-2.0
-2.0
-1.9
Source: OECD
Gross public debt in Greece
Percentage of GDP
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
Difference between Greece’s and
Germany’s government bond rates
Percentage points
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
08
09
10
11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Gross public debt in Portugal, Ireland,
Italy and Spain
Percentage of GDP
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
Portugal
Ireland
20
20
Italy
Spain
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
General government net lending in
Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain
Percentage of GDP
10
10
Portugal
Ireland
5
5
Italy
Spain
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
Government bond rates of Portugal,
Ireland, Italy and Spain, compared with
those of Germany
Percentage points
3.0
3.0
Portugal
2.5
2.5
Ireland
Italy
2.0
2.0
Spain
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
06
07
08
09
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
10
11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Unit labour costs compared to the euro
area
Percentage points
35
35
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
Germany
30
25
20
15
30
25
20
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
00
02
04
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
06
08
10
Source: OECD
Current account deficits
Percentage of GDP
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
Portugal
-8
-10
Ireland
-10
-12
Italy
-12
Greece
-14
-14
Spain
-16
-16
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents IMF’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Source: IMF
General government net lending in the
United Kingdom
Percentage of GDP
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: OECD
General government net lending in
Sweden
Percentage of GDP
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
70
74
78
82
86
Note. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
90
94
98
02
06
10
Source: OECD
Sweden’s central government debt and
gross public debt
Percentage of GDP
90
90
Central government debt
80
80
Gross public debt
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Swedish National Debt Office and OECD
General government net lending in Sweden, the
euro area and the United Kingdom
Per cent of GDP
10
10
Sweden
Euro area
United Kingdom
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Note. Red broken line represents the Riksbanks’s forecast, blue and yellow broken lines represent OECD’s forecast.
Sources: OECD and the Riksbank
Government bond rates of different
countries
Percentage points
10
10
Sweden
Germany
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
9
8
7
6
9
8
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
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