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Country Risk Overview
Grzegorz Sielewicz
Economist, Coface
May 2015
Global growth: A tiny winy pickup this year, but several
risks to be monitored
/
2
Lower oil prices: A positive effect on global growth
Oil price (Brent, source: OPEC)
Oil exports (million of barrels per
day, source: OPEC)
1200
1000
800
2008
Aug-14
600
400
200
0
World
US
/
3
OPEC
Lower oil prices: And the winners are…
WINNERS
Sectors
Regions
Transport
Chemicals
Automotive
Electronics
Retail
Energy
(Oil & gas)
LOSERS
US
Eurozone
Asia
Other EM oil importers:
CEE, MENA oil importers,…
CIS
SS Africa
Latam
MENA oil exporters
/
4
United States: the engines of growth
Industrial production, labor and
energy costs
Unemployment and wages (rate or growth,
%)
/
5
United States: improvement of sector risks
Coface Sector Risk Assessment,
North America
Sectors
Coface Index of US sectors’
financial health (Q1 2007=100)
North
America
Agrofood
Automotives
Chemicals
Construction
Electronics, IT
Energy
Engineering
Metals
Paper-wood
Pharmaceuticals
Retail
Services
Textile-clothing
Transportation
/
6
Japan: corporate sector adapts to stagnation
Japan: corporate insolvencies
(number)
/
7
France: corporate insolvencies decreasing
Corporate insolvencies and new
businesses (number, thousands)
Insolvencies
Corporate gross profit margin
(EBITDA/VA, %)
New businesses
2015 forecast
Forecast: 31.1
Źródło: Insee, Scores & Decisions, Coface
/
8
Germany: higher growth, less insolvencies
GDP growth contributions (p.p.)
Companies insolvencies
thousands
.
32 687
24 085
(-7.3% y/y)
Source: Datastream, Destatis, Coface
/
9
Europe: debt burden and preference for liquidity
Corporate insolvencies
(Index,
Corporate debt (% GDP)
2007=100)
/
10
Western Europe: volatility and disparities of sector risks
Coface Sector Risk Assessment,
Western Europe
Sectors
Western
Europe
Coface Index of sectors’ financial
health – Western Europe (Q1
2007=100)
Agrofood
Automotives
Chemicals
Construction
Electronics, IT
Energy
Engineering
Metals
Paper-wood
Pharmaceuticals
Retail
Services
Textile-clothing
Transportation
/
11
Global GDP growth forecasts
/
12
Country Risk Assessments: Advanced economies
Country Risk
Assessment
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
January
January
January
January
Mars
June
October
January
March
Germany
Austria
Canada
United States
Japan
Switzerland
Australia
Belgium
Netherlands
United Kingdom
France
Ireland
Iceland
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Greece
A2
A2
A1
A2
A1
A1
A1
A2
A2
A3
A2
A4
A4
A3
A3
A3
A4
A2
A2
A1
A2
A1
A1
A1
A2
A2
A3
A2
A4
A4
A4
A4
A4
C
A2
A2
A1
A2
A1
A1
A2
A2
A2
A3
A2
A4
A4
B
B
B
C
A2
A2
A1
A2
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
A3
A3
A3
A3
B
B
B
C
A2
A2
A1
A1
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
A3
A3
A3
A3
B
B
B
C
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
A2
A3
A3
A3
B
B
B
C
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
A2
A3
A3
A3
A4
B
B
C
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
A2
A3
A3
A3
A4
B
B
C
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A2
A2
A2
A2
A3
A3
A3
A4
B
B
C
Business
Climate
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A1
A2
A2
A3
/
13
Emerging countries: the return of « traditional » crisis?
Nominal exchange rate vs. USD
(growth, %)
Exchange rate fluctuations vs. USD
(%) and foreign reserves (import month)
/
14
Emerging countries: economic policy and « insidious »
crisis
Current account balance evolution
Banking credit
(% GDP)
(pts. of % GDP, 2010-2014)
/
15
Russia: Resilience will not last!
Retail sales, Industrial production and Investment
(yoy growth, %)
15
14
%
13,9
12
13
10,6
11
9
7,9
3
1
5,65,5
4,5
3,4
2,4
Industrial production
8
Investment
6
3,2
3,2
4
3,8
0,1
0,8
4
3,6
0,6
3,6
1,4 1,1
0,4
1,8
1,9
1,4
3,1
1,5 2,1
Disposable income (real)
Wages
Pensions (real)
-1,2
4
2
0
-0,3
-1,2
-5
%
4,9
-1
-3
10
Retail
7,4
7
5
Wages and pensions
(yoy growth, %)
-2
-1,4
-2,4
-3
-4
-4,8 Q2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q4
2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
-6
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
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16
Russia: Structural weaknesses exacerbated by the political
crisis
Net flows from private sector
(bn. USD)
Rubble and oil price
(YTD % change, 2014)
/
China: lower growth
GDP growth (%)
Property prices
no. of cities
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
* Coface forecast
Decreased
No change
Increased
Source: Coface, CEIC
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18
China: high companies’ indebtedness
Corporates debt
Non-performing loans
(% GDP), Coface estimates
350%
Non-p erform ing loans rising furiously
300%
RMB b
250%
200%
YoY
1,4 0 0
50 %
1,20 0
30 %
1,0 0 0
10 %
80 0
-10 %
150%
60 0
-30 %
40 0
100%
50%
20 0
-50 %
0
-70 %
Brazil
India
Russia
Poland
Turkey
China
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
0%
NPL: Com m ercial b anks
NPL Grow t h rat e ( RHS)
Source: Coface, CEIC
/
Asia: a new wave of well-performing emerging economies
Vietnam: inflation and exchange
rate (% and level)
Vietnam: high value-added and
electronic exports (% tot. exports)
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20
Country Risk Assessments
Country Risk
Assessment
Hong Kong
Singapore
Korea
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Country Risk
Assessment
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Russia
Uzbekistan
Ukraine
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
January
January
January
January
March
June
October
January
March
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
B
B
A3
C
B
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A3
B
B
A3
C
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
B
A3
C
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
A4
A3
C
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
A4
A4
C
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
A4
A4
C
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
A4
A4
C
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
A4
A4
B
C
C
D
A1
A1
A2
A3
A4
A4
A4
A4
B
C
C
C
2011
2012
2013
January
January
January
January
March
June
October
January
March
Business
Climate
B
C
B
D
D
B
C
B
D
D
B
C
B
D
D
B
C
B
D
D
B
C
B
D
D
B
C
B
D
D
B
C
C
D
D
B
C
C
D
D
B
C
C
D
D
B
C
C
D
D
2014
2015
Business
Climate
A2
A1
A2
B
B
B
B
A3
B
C
D
D
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21
CEE: Stronger internal demand
GDP growth in CEE economies (%, y/y)
Source: Coface
/
22
Country Risk Assessments: CEE region
Country Risk
Assessment
Estonia
Poland
Slovakia
Lithuania
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Croatia
Hungary
Latvia
Romania
Serbia
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
January
January
January
January
March
June
October
January
March
Business
Climate
A3
A3
A3
A4
A2
A2
B
A4
A4
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A2
A2
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A3
A3
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A4
A4
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A4
A4
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A4
A4
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A4
A4
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A4
A4
B
B
B
B
B
C
A3
A3
A3
A4
A4
A4
B
B
B
B
B
C
A2
A2
A2
A2
A2
A2
A4
A3
A2
A3
A4
C
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23